Severe Thunderstorm Warning 268, NWS Twin Cities, MN

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 032041
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
341 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

MNC145-032051-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0268.000000T0000Z-080803T2115Z/
STEARNS MN-
341 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL STEARNS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE STORM HAD MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4541 9355 4540 9356 4539 9382 4540 9397
      4542 9405 4566 9418 4585 9354 4542 9354
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 252DEG 31KT 4554 9404

$$

MNC009-095-141-032115-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0268.000000T0000Z-080803T2115Z/
MILLE LACS MN-SHERBURNE MN-BENTON MN-
341 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN BENTON...NORTHERN SHERBURNE AND SOUTHERN MILLE LACS
COUNTIES...

AT 339 PM CDT...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THE SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF 
SAUK RAPIDS...AND MOVING EAST AT 36 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE SANTIAGO...PARENT...MAYHEW...
GLENDORADO...DUELM...ZIMMERMAN...RONNEBY...PRINCETON...PEASE AND
MILACA.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER
NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4541 9355 4540 9356 4539 9382 4540 9397
      4542 9405 4566 9418 4585 9354 4542 9354
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 252DEG 31KT 4554 9404

$$

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 032105
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
405 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

MNC009-095-141-032115-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0268.000000T0000Z-080803T2115Z/
MILLE LACS MN-SHERBURNE MN-BENTON MN-
405 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN BENTON...NORTHERN
SHERBURNE AND SOUTHERN MILLE LACS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE STORM HAD WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4541 9355 4540 9356 4539 9382 4540 9397
      4542 9405 4566 9418 4585 9354 4542 9354
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 252DEG 31KT 4560 9376

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
321 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER AROUND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING.

ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AT NOSE OF 850-600MB THETA-E
ADVECTION AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS CTRL MN INTO WRN
WI. THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE EASTWARD AT EDGE OF MID-LEVEL
CAP. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTN AND POSSIBILITY
INTO THE EVE WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ASSOCIATED
MUCAPES OF 2000-4000 J/KG. LARGE CAPE INDICATED ALSO IN THE MAIN
HAIL GROWTH REGION. ELEVATED SUPERCELLS HAVE TAKEN OVER AS
PRIMARY MODE AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONAL
DATA /VAD PROFILER/ AND MESOANALYSIS DATA. HAIL THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT WITH THESE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

CONCERN FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CONVECTION IS GROWING IN SOUTH
CTRL MN...WITH INITIATION BETWEEN 5 PM AND 8 PM APPEARING LIKELY.
1005MB SFC LOW HAS EVOLVED INTO FAR SE SD DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THIS AFTN...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC WARM FRONT DRAPED NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF I-90. THIS HAS BEEN DIABATICALLY ENHANCED DUE TO CLOUD
COVER TO THE NORTH AND BAKING HEAT TO THE SOUTH. CUMULUS CLOUD
STREETS /POSSIBLY HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS/ HAVE SHOWN UP IN
ERN TO NERN IA AND ARE ADVECTING INTO SOUTH CTRL MN. STILL A GREAT
AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED AND MIXED-LAYER CIN IN THAT AREA AS
INDICATED BY DIAGNOSTIC SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH THE BASIC H7 TEMPS
A WARM 15C. BUT...SHORTWAVE OR VORT MAXIMA EXTENSION FROM
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE IN CTRL MN IS PRESENT ON SATELLITE CHANNELS IN
SOUTH CTRL SD. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THIS INDICATED ON
THE RUC MODEL COMING ACROSS INTO ERN SD AND SOON INTO SRN MN.
SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THIS IS ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SRN MN. CONVECTIVE TEMPS FOR TRIGGERING SFC
BASED CONVECTION WILL BE CLOSE TO BEING REACHED...WITH ADAPTED
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR DEW POINTS IN THE 75-77F BALLPARK
INDICATING CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO NEAR 90F NEEDED FROM FAIRMONT UP TO
MANKATO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS DUE TO INCREASING MID-LEVEL
FLOW WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IS PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. 0-1KM SHEAR PREDICTED BY THE RUC AND NAM TO BE BETWEEN
20-30 KTS...HELPED IN PART BY THE RE-INCREASING LLJ. BACKED LOW
LEVEL FLOW IN OUR SOUTH CTRL COUNTIES ALSO AIDING POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES. IT WOULD SEEM LIKE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES WOULD
BE SOON AFTER INITIATION. SIG TOR POTENTIAL SEEMS BRIEF BUT
POSSIBLE ACCORDING TO SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH LOCAL RESEARCH
REGRESSIONS FOR FAVORABLE SIG TOR PARAMETERS. DOWNBURST POTENTIAL
AND LARGE HAIL SEEM VERY LIKELY WITH CELLS DUE TO THE STRONG CAPE
AND DCAPE AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH IN THAT AREA. MOST LIKELY TIMING
FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER BASED SUPERCELLS WOULD BE 5 PM TO 10 PM. HAVE
SVR MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS DURING THAT TIME.

AS LLJ INTENSIFIES AND FOCUSES INTO SE MN AND WRN WI AHEAD OF SHORT
WAVE THIS EVE...CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE...INCLUDING IN ERN MN AND WRN WI. THIS SHOULD BE
ELEVATED IN ERN MN AND WRN WI...WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CONTINUING TO FEED THE CONVECTION. EVENTUAL ORGANIZATION SEEMS
LIKELY...GIVEN FAVORABLE MCS/DERECHO PARAMETERS...THAT WOULD
ESPECIALLY TAKE OFF OVER SE MN INTO SRN WI LATE THIS EVE INTO
OVERNIGHT. SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS THIS EVE AND THEN BEGIN SLOWLY
TAILORING BACK...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS SFC COLD FRONT/TROUGH
EXTENDING NWRD FROM THE SFC LOW WORK EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ALONG WITH NO STRONG DRY AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MN CWA AND POSSIBLY THE WI CWA BY VERY LATE TONIGHT.

FOR MON...EVERYTHING EVOLVES SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE
UPPER LEVEL JET AND COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS. THIS WILL HELP TO AID
CONVECTION...POSSIBLY SEVERE DURING THE AFTN AND EVE ON MON. THE
MAIN SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD BE TOO OUR SOUTH...HELPED IN PART BY THE
CONVECTION TONIGHT.

DRY AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO OOZE INTO THE REGION BY LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUES. REALLY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT WEEK AFTER THAT POINT AS
ERN NA LONG WAVE TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. POCKETS OF VORT
MAXIMA SEEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS MAY LEAD TO SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS BUT THIS CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE CTRL GREAT LAKES
REGION MORE. HAVE BUMPED DOWN MIN TEMPS FOR FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...CLOSER TO LOWER VALUES OF 00Z MEN GUIDANCE BASED ON
850MB TEMPS CREEPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS INTO CTRL MN AND WRN
WI.

&&

.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX BETWEEN THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF THE
TWIN CITIES AND DULUTH MOVING ENE. ACTIVITY IS ALONG A SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN MN. 700 MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE 14 DEG C TO
THE SSW OF THE TWIN CITIES HELPING TO CAP ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THAT
DIRECTION FOR THE TIME BEING. MORE RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS IS ALONG A
SURFACE FRONT AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ALOFT. THE FRONT AND ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EASTERN MN AND
WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY TONIGHT. HAVE INDICATED SOME TEMPO GROUPS TO
TRY AND TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER. THE FRONT WILL BE OVER
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA MONDAY MORNING. A VERY BAGGY PRESSURE
PATTERN AND DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S STILL
EXPECTED FROM KSTC AND KRWF ON EASTWARD. NAM BUFKIT HYDROLAPSE
INCREASING FROM 4 G/KG BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 500 FEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HENCE...THERE IS PRETTY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR STATUS
AND FOG. EXPECT VISIBILITIES IN THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE WITH CEILING
BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 FEET.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

MTF/RAH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
107 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
041100-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
107 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. DURING MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. SOME OF THESE MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS.

VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. THESE WILL
EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE PRIMARY THREATS. ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THERE IS A
AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAINLY BETWEEN 5 PM
AND 10 PM.

THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SOME OF THESE MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN PARTS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
203 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 PM     HAIL             1 ENE GRANDY            45.64N 93.17W
08/03/2008  M1.00 INCH       ISANTI             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SPR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
208 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 PM     HAIL             PRINCETON               45.57N 93.59W
08/03/2008  M0.88 INCH       MILLE LACS         MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

SPR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
237 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NE RUSH CITY          45.72N 92.91W
08/03/2008  M2.60 INCH       CHISAGO            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN 2.60 INCHES OF RAIN IN 2.5 HOURS

&&

SPR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
302 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NE BRAHAM               45.73N 93.17W
08/03/2008  M2.50 INCH       ISANTI             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN RESULTED IN RAIN TOTALS OF 2.5 INCHES IN 3
            HOURS

&&

SPR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
317 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LUCK                    45.58N 92.47W
08/03/2008                   POLK               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWNED IN AND
            NEAR THE CITY OF LUCK BETWEEN 250 PM AND 258 PM.

&&

KAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
324 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     HAIL             RICHMOND                45.45N 94.52W
08/03/2008  M1.00 INCH       STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SPR