Severe Thunderstorm Warning 213, NWS Twin Cities, MN

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 171307
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
807 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

MNC013-015-165-171330-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0213.000000T0000Z-080717T1330Z/
BROWN MN-BLUE EARTH MN-WATONWAN MN-
807 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN WATONWAN...NORTHWESTERN BLUE EARTH AND SOUTHEASTERN
BROWN COUNTIES...

AT 803 AM CDT...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.  THE SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED 
NEAR HANSKA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 31 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE MADELIA...LAKE CRYSTAL...LA
SALLE...HANSKA AND DARFUR.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

REPORT ANY DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4403 9485 4410 9486 4424 9430 4423 9429
      4423 9427 4422 9425 4419 9416 4401 9410
TIME...MOT...LOC 1307Z 244DEG 27KT 4416 9445

$$

KAT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
615 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008/

PATTERN A LITTLE TRICKY IN TERMS OF SPEED OF FEATURES. EARLIER IN
THE SHIFT...THOUGHT THAT THE GFS MIGHT BE A LITTLE FAST...ALTHOUGH
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW OVER SD WAS CLOSE TO THE
GFS AND SREF. THE CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH SW MN DRIVEN
BY SOME MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH AND EAST WEST HOT PROD
POINTED SOMEWHAT AT SE MN. AXIS OF HIGHER ML CAPE ALSO IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN. NEXT CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL SD
TRUCKING EAST AT A DECENT CLIP...AND DOES SEEM TO MATCH A MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAX ON THE GFS TRACKING FROM NW SD INTO T
EAST CENTRAL SD AT BY 12Z. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE MAINLY THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL MN. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MORE ROBUST ON THE NAM AND
SREF...ESPECIALLY OVER SE MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
GFS MAX GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREA BUT OF COURSE MOVING THROUGH
FASTER. HAVE ENDED THE PRECIP EARLIER OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MN THIS
EVENING AND THEN TRIMMED AT A SLOWER PACE FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FASTER MOVEMENT ON STORMS AND BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT JUST TO OUR SE...WILL KEEP WITH JUST THE HEAVY RAIN
WORDING AND NOT ISSUE ANY FFA AT THIS TIME. THANKS FOR COORD WITH
ARX..GRB..DLH.

LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
FRIDAY...EXCEPT THE FAR S OR SE...WITH A DECENT PUSH OF NW FLOW. NAM
IS ACTUALLY DRIER THAN THE GFS FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS IDEA OF A
BREAK ON FRIDAY WAS ACTUALLY HINTED AT SEVERAL DAYS AGO BY THE
MODELS. THE FRONT DOES WORK BACK NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/

YET ANOTHER TRICKY SET OF TAFS...WITH QUASI STNRY FNT REMAINING
ACRS THE AREA. SOME MDL DIFFERENCES ON HANDLING OF
FNT/CONVECTION...BUT GFS HANDLING CURRENT ACTIVITY BEST. SO WILL
FAVOR A FASTER MOVEMENT OF FNT ONCE IT ACTUALLY GETS MOVG SWRD.
TSTM COMPLEX IN ERN SODAK SHUD MOV EWRD...AFFECTING ALL THE TAF
SITES THIS MRNG. DIST SPD TOOL BRINGS IT INTO RWF BY 13Z...STC BY
14Z...MSP BY 15Z...RNH BY 16Z...AND EAU BY 17Z. AXN SHUD MISS OUT
ON THE THUNDER...BUT COULD SEE SOME RA. HAVE LEFT IT OUT
ATTM...HOWEVER. THINKING IS THAT THIS MRNG CONVECTION COULD REDUCE
THE AREAL COVG OF TSRA THIS AFTN/EVE. WITH GFS SINKING FNT INTO
SRN MN/WRN WI BY THIS EVE...ELECTED TO ONLY MENTION TSRA CHCS AT
RWF/MSP/RNH/EAU. LINGERED SHRA ACTIVITY AT EAU FROM 05Z UNTIL THE
END OF THE VALID TAF PD...WITH S/WVS RIDING UP THE FNT...ALTHO IT
MAY END QUICKER THAN THAT. LATER ISSUANCES CAN ADDRESS THIS. WINDS
WL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY WITH FNTL MOVEMENT IN QUESTION. FAVORED
SRLY WINDS TRANSITIONING TO WRLY AND FINALLY NWRLY LATE AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT AXN...WHICH IS N OF THE FNT ATTM.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JPR/KAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
442 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
180945-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
442 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE...BUT THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND COOL FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATER THIS MORNING. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND CAUSE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING AS WELL. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...INTO PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM AROUND LITTLE FALLS...TO MORRIS. AREAS AFFECTED BY HEAVIER
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM FAIRMONT AND MANKATO...TO RED WING AND EAU CLAIRE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES BACK NORTH. THE
EXTENT OF ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

JPR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
225 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

MNZ054-056-064-065-073-074-170815-
BROWN-CHIPPEWA-LAC QUI PARLE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-YELLOW MEDICINE-
225 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BROWN...CHIPPEWA...LAC QUI PARLE...
REDWOOD...RENVILLE AND YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM CDT...

AT 223 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DAWSON
TO 4 MILES EAST OF HAZEL RUN TO VESTA TO 6 MILES NORTH OF WESTBROOK.
THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 31 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  LUCAN.
  SEAFORTH.
  BELVIEW.
  WABASSO.
  MINNESOTA FALLS.
  SACRED HEART.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

KAT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
338 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

MNZ067-074-075-083-170930-
BLUE EARTH-BROWN-NICOLLET-SIBLEY-
338 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BLUE EARTH...BROWN...NICOLLET AND
SIBLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM CDT...

AT 335 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
FAIRFAX TO 6 MILES WEST OF NEW ULM TO 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF DARFUR.
THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 31 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  ST GEORGE.
  KLOSSNER.
  HANSKA.
  LAFAYETTE.
  NICOLLET.
  NEW SWEDEN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

KAT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
629 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

MNZ082-171215-
WATONWAN-
629 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR WATONWAN COUNTY UNTIL 715 AM CDT...

AT 625 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF BINGHAM LAKE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN WATONWAN COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BUTTERFIELD...
ODIN...ECHOLS AND ST JAMES...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

KAT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
718 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

MNZ054-064-171300-
LAC QUI PARLE-YELLOW MEDICINE-
718 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR LAC QUI PARLE AND YELLOW MEDICINE
COUNTIES UNTIL 800 AM CDT...

AT 716 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BIG STONE CITY TO 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF ASTORIA. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  MARIETTA.
  CANBY.
  PORTER.
  PROVIDENCE.
  SPRING CREEK.
  CLARKFIELD.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

KAT