Tornado Warning 106, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WWUS54 KMOB 011247
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
747 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2008

ALC003-097-129-011257-
/O.CAN.KMOB.TO.W.0106.000000T0000Z-080901T1300Z/
WASHINGTON AL-BALDWIN AL-MOBILE AL-
747 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2008

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHERN MOBILE...WEST CENTRAL BALDWIN AND
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3076 8799 3078 8800 3077 8801 3096 8843
      3116 8827 3070 8764 3063 8771
TIME...MOT...LOC 1247Z 126DEG 40KT 3098 8818

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
659 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2008

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH # 877 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. /10

&&

.......................PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..........................

.SHORT TERM TODAY AND TONIGHT...APOLOGIZE FOR THE DELAY IN ALL OF
THE PUBLIC PRODUCTS...BUT WANTED TO GET ALL THE LATEST ON GUSTAV
BEFORE TRANSMITTING. HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL BY
MIDDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF LOUISIANA COAST...NOT FAR WEST OF
GRAND ISLE. WELL EAST OF THE CENTER...WILL SEE RAINBANDS AND SQUALLY
WEATHER ROTATING IN OFF THE GULF. WE FORECAST THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE RAIN BANDS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINS WITH
OCCASIONAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS. EXCESSIVE RAINS COULD
FORM WHERE RAIN BAND DETACHMENT SETS UP AND PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVER THE SAME AREAS. WILL HAVE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT FOR
THOSE ZONES WHERE WE EXPECT THIS POTENTIAL. GRIDDED WEATHER WILL ALSO
CONTAIN THE POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS THESE AREAS LOOK TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF IMPACTS FROM THESE AND CLOSEST TO THE FAVORED
EAST/NORTHEAST SIDE OF GUSTAVS CIRCULATION. TIDAL FLOODING
...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND INSTANCES OF BEACH EROSION WILL ALSO
PRESENT HAZARDS TODAY. FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON WHAT IS
EXPECTED...REFER TO THE LOCAL STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE ALABAMA. /10

.LONG TERM TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME FORECAST CHALLENGES IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER PICTURE. ALTHOUGH GUSTAV WILL BE WEAKENING
OVER WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA OR EAST TEXAS TUESDAY...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A DETACHED RAINBAND THAT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.
IF THIS SETS UP...EXCESSIVE RAINS WOULD BE LIKELY. HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...COUPLED WITH HANNA NEAR THE BAHAMAS...FAVORS A WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF INCREASED SUBSIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A NET
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BY THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...
LEFTOVER MOISTURE BY GUSTAV LOOKS TO BE SHEARED EASTWARD WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMING BACK UP FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WE ANTICIPATE NO PROBLEMS WITH HANNA. SAW NO REASON TO
DEVIATE FROM THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECASTS FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE
NOT THAT FAR FROM SEASONAL NORMALS. /10

&&

.AVIATION...TAF SITES WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
OCCASIONALLY LOWERING TO IFR IN SQUALLS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR ASCENT AND DESCENT.

&&

.MARINE...MAJOR HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL MAKE LANDFALL AROUND MIDDAY
TODAY ON THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN
IN PORT AND CLOSELY MONITOR THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS
AND ADVISORIES CONCERNING THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE. GUSTAV WEAKENS AS
IT CONTINUES MOVING INLAND ACROSS LOUISIANA AND INTO EASTERN TEXAS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE MARINE
AREA WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 20 KNOTS ON TUESDAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW
7 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      83  76  83  75 / 100  90  80  60
PENSACOLA   85  77  84  73 / 100  70  70  50
DESTIN      84  77  86  74 /  80  50  70  40
EVERGREEN   85  72  84  70 /  70  50  60  40
WAYNESBORO  85  73  84  71 /  90  80  80  70
CAMDEN      86  72  85  70 /  70  50  70  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...AND
     UPPER MOBILE.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER
     MOBILE...AND WASHINGTON.

     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND WASHINGTON.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...COASTAL WALTON...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.

GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&