Red Flag Warning 46, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
329 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN MOVING ANOTHER
REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL TODAY WITH
BREEZY NW WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL
SPELL MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
FAR NRN SECTIONS IN THE LWR 60S AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS IN DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT WARMER
ACROSS SRN SECTIONS IN THE LWR 70S.

TONIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE SE STATES. SFC PRES GRADIENT FROM JAX-MIA INCREASES
FROM AROUND 6 MB TO 8 MB OVERNIGHT AS NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TO THE
NE. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR CSTL SECTIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
WINDY AT THE BEACHES. AS LOW LVL FLOW VEERS...MARINE STRATOCU LAYER
SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID-UPR 30S ACROSS LAKE COUNTY
TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE MARTIN COUNTY COAST.

SAT-MON...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD TO THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY.
BRISK ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY VEER WHILE DECREASING IN
SPEED EARLY IN THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODERATE EACH PERIOD WITH STABLE
NE FLOW AND SCT MARINE CLOUDS WORKING ASHORE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREA AND GULF STREAM SUN-MON BUT CHANCES
TOO LOW TO MENTION OVER LAND.

TUE-FRI...AN UPPER WAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE SE REGION WILL DRAG THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS WITH
LITTLE FANFARE AND POP CHCS/MOISTURE HAVE LESSEN WITH LATEST GLOBAL
MODEL GUID. NO SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN/FREEZE IS ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD ONTO TO ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TUE WITH POST
FRONTAL DRYING AT MIDWEEK AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
DRY CD FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS E CENTRAL FL TODAY WITH NW WINDS
INCREASING TO NR 15 KTS AND BECOMING GUSTY TO 20-22 KNOTS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. INCREASING NE FLOW FRI NGT WITH G18-24 KTS PSBL FOR
CSTL TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS MOVG ONSHORE FROM ATLC LATE FRI NIGHT FOR
KMLB/KVRB...OTHW MAINLY CLR INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WILL RAISE ADVISORY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE LEGS THIS MORNING
AND NEAR SHORE LEGS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS NW WINDS INCREASE OVER 20
KNOTS. FLOW VEERS TONIGHT AND INCREASES FROM THE NE AS PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS TO 8MB FROM JAX-MIA. NE WINDS 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT NEAR SHORE AND 8-10 FT OFFSHORE. SCA
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER ALL WATERS INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SLOW DECREASE IN SEAS/SWELL ON SUNDAY. NEXT FRONT TUE
WILL INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS...HOWEVER HEADLINES ARE NOT EXPECTED
OVER THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MARGINAL DURATION OF LOW RH EXPECTED BETWEEN 2 PM
AND 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR NW INTERIOR SECTIONS. NW WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 MPH. LOWEST RHS PROGS ACROSS LAKE COUNTY WHERE
NAM FCSTS LOWEST DWPTS...AND MIN RHS AROUND 34 PCT. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH GFS MOS GUID AS WELL AND WILL RAISE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR LAKE
COUNTY FOR LOW RH AND WIND. AREAS SURROUNDING LAKE COUNTY WILL ALSO
SEE WINDS APPROACH 15 MPH SUSTAINED WITH MIN RHS AROUND 35 PCT. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THESE CONDITIONS IN THE FWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  43  60  47 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  66  44  64  50 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  69  47  66  53 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  71  51  67  56 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NORTHERN LAKE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY      FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY      LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET OUT 20 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
935 AM EST THU NOV 20 2008

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-202200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
935 AM EST THU NOV 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED
FIRE DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A NORTHEAST OCEAN SWELL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON
FRIDAY AND BRING GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

VOLKMER/SEDLOCK