Hurricane Local Statement 1, NWS Melbourne, FL

000 
WTUS82 KMLB 172222
HLSMLB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
622 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR PORTIONS OF
INLAND EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE 
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA.

THIS STATEMENT ALSO PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR INTERESTS IN 
MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...BREVARD... 
LAKE...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THIS ALSO INCLUDES THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES. 

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OKEECHOBEE AND
OSCEOLA COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
 
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...FAY IS EXPECTED TO NEAR THE
FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

FLZ053-058-182230-
/O.CON.KMLB.TI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T0000Z/
OSCEOLA-OKEECHOBEE-
622 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

...NEW INFORMATION...
DETAILS ARE PROVIDED FOR AREAS WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WIND
WATCH.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...OKEECHOBEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE DEFINED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IT IS
RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PREPARE YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS AND REVIEW YOUR
EVACUATION PLAN.

PEOPLE LOCATED IN THE WATCH AREAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO FREQUENTLY
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS MEDIA...FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS EVOLVING SITUATION WITH TROPICAL STORM
FAY. LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK 
(THAT IS...THE SKINNY BLACK LINE) AS THERE ARE STILL INHERENT 
UNCERTAINTIES WHICH MUST BE SMARTLY FACTORED IN FOR SAFETY PURPOSES.
IN ALL CASES...HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH 
ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED.        

THIS IS A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO GO OVER THEIR PREPAREDNESS 
PLANS AND REPLENISH STORM PROVISIONS SUCH AS...BATTERIES FOR RADIOS 
AND FLASHLIGHTS...DRINKING WATER...CANNED GOODS OR DRIED FOOD...     
FIRST AID SUPPLIES...BABY SUPPLIES...AND PRESCRIPTION MEDICINES. GAS 
UP YOUR VEHICLES AND HAVE SOME EXTRA FUEL ON HAND FOR GENERATORS AND 
CHAIN SAWS IF NEEDED. IT IS ALSO BEST TO HAVE SOME EXTRA CASH AS 
CREDIT CARDS MAY NOT BE AN OPTION IF ELECTRIC POWER GOES OUT. KEEP 
YOUR CELL PHONE WELL CHARGED BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREAS SHOULD PROTECT WINDOWS AND DOORS AGAINST 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS 
SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS OR TIED DOWN.

MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS SHOULD CONSIDER WHETHER TO TEMPORARILY 
EVACUATE TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER UNTIL THE HIGH WIND AND TORNADO 
THREAT PASSES. BE READY TO LEAVE IF A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE 
WARNING IS ISSUED...OR IF YOU ARE DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL 
OFFICIALS. 

...WINDS...
THE SPECIFIC FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS TO BE 3O TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 45 TO 50 MPH. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND INCREASE
TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY FOR OSCEOLA COUNTY.

GIVEN THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALONG WITH INHERENT FORECAST
UNCERTAINTIES IN CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY...THERE IS A LIMITED
THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM HIGH WINDS FOR EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY FOR OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. A
REASONABLE LIKELIHOOD EXISTS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39
TO 57 MPH.

LOCAL COMMUNITIES SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST A  
VERY LOW BUT NOTEWORTHY IMPACT FROM DAMAGING WIND. THE LIKELIHOOD 
EXISTS FOR WINDS TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO CARPORTS...AWNINGS...AND POOL 
ENCLOSURES. SOME DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR TO UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES. 
SMALL BRANCHES MAY BREAK OFF TREES...AND LOOSE OBJECTS MAY BE BLOWN 
ABOUT. WINDS MAY BECOME DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS... 
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...FORCING CLOSURES. ISOLATED TO 
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL DAMAGE IS CONSISTENT 
WITH THAT REALIZED BY WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE. 

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A 50 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE FOR OF TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS WITH FAY. THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS IS
LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.

...INLAND FLOODING...
ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH FAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. CONSEQUENTLY...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

...TORNADOES...
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLROIDA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF FAY. STATISTICALLY...THIS QUADRANT IS THE FAVORED AREA
FOR TORNADOES AND TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUTER
RAINBANDS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS WILL INCREASE
MONDAY AS THE OUTER REACHES OF FAY APPROACH THE AREA. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND MIDNIGHT EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS 
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE THE 
MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV AND THEN 
CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-054-059-064-141-144-147-
182230-
/O.CON.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-SOUTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
622 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...NEW INFORMATION...
ALTHOUGH WATCHES HAVE NOT BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA...RESIDENTS
AND MARINERS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF ANY NEARING HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY.

THIS STATEMENT ALSO PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR INTERESTS IN 
MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...BREVARD... 
LAKE...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THIS ALSO INCLUDES THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES. 

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IN CASE ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE NEEDED...THIS IS A GOOD TIME FOR
RESIDENTS TO GO OVER THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND REPLENSIH STORM
PROVISIONS SUCH AS...BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS...DRINKING
WATER...CANNED GOODS OR DRIED FOOD... FIRST AID SUPPLIES...BABY
SUPPLIES...AND PRESCRIPTION MEDICINES. 

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
GIVEN THAT FAY WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE INLAND 
DIERCTION...LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IS 
EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AT THIS TIME.  

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST AND A LAKE LEVEL 
NEAR 11.3 FEET...NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACT IS 
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN LAKE LEVEL ARE EXPECTED AS 
THE WINDS SHIFT IN DIRECTION AND SPEED WITH THE PASSING STORM.

...WINDS...
THE SPECIFIC FORECAST IS FOR WINDS AND GUSTS TO REMAIN BELOW
TROPICAL STORM FORCE DURING THE EVENT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE GUSTS
WITHIN RAINBANDS MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.

GIVEN THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALONG WITH INHERENT FORECAST
UNCERTAINTIES IN CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY...THERE IS A LIMITED
THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM HIGH WINDS. 

MARINERS ARE URGED TO CHECK THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR
THE LATEST ON MARINE WINDS AND SEAS. INTERESTS AT AREA
PORTS...MARINAS...AND DOCKS SHOULD BE READY TO ACT IF A WATCH OR
WARNING IS ISSUED ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET.  

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
GIVEN THAT FAY WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE INLAND 
DIERCTION...LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IS 
EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AT THIS TIME.  

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST AND A LAKE LEVEL 
NEAR 11.3 FEET...NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACT IS 
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN LAKE LEVEL ARE EXPECTED AS 
THE WINDS SHIFT IN DIRECTION AND SPEED WITH THE PASSING STORM.

...INLAND FLOODING...
ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH FAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. CONSEQUENTLY...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

...TORNADOES...
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLROIDA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF FAY. STATISTICALLY...THIS QUADRANT IS THE FAVORED AREA
FOR TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUTER
RAINBANDS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS THE
OUTER REACHES OF FAY APPROACH THE AREA. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND MIDNIGHT EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS 
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE THE 
MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV AND THEN 
CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

000 
WTUS82 KMLB 180037
HLSMLB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
837 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...


...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA.

THIS STATEMENT ALSO PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR INTERESTS
IN MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...
BREVARD...LAKE...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THIS ALSO INCLUDES THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES.


...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OKEECHOBEE AND
OSCEOLA COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.


...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 800 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
 
FAY HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY AND SOMEWHAT ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE
FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.


FLZ053-058-190045-
/O.CON.KMLB.TI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T0000Z/
OSCEOLA-OKEECHOBEE-
837 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...


...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS MOVING A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY
WHICH ADDS TO THE DEGREE OF DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST.


...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...OKEECHOBEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES.


...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE DEFINED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IT IS
RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PREPARE YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS AND REVIEW YOUR
EVACUATION PLAN.

PEOPLE LOCATED IN THE WATCH AREAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO FREQUENTLY
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS MEDIA...FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS EVOLVING SITUATION WITH TROPICAL STORM
FAY. LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK
(THAT IS...THE SKINNY BLACK LINE) AS THERE ARE STILL INHERENT
UNCERTAINTIES WHICH MUST BE SMARTLY FACTORED IN FOR SAFETY
PURPOSES. IN ALL CASES...HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND
COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO GO OVER THEIR PREPAREDNESS
PLANS AND REPLENISH STORM PROVISIONS SUCH AS...BATTERIES FOR
RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS...DRINKING WATER...CANNED GOODS OR DRIED
FOOD... FIRST AID SUPPLIES...BABY SUPPLIES...AND PRESCRIPTION
MEDICINES. GAS UP YOUR VEHICLES AND HAVE SOME EXTRA FUEL ON HAND
FOR GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS IF NEEDED. IT IS ALSO BEST TO HAVE
SOME EXTRA CASH AS CREDIT CARDS MAY NOT BE AN OPTION IF ELECTRIC
POWER GOES OUT. KEEP YOUR CELL PHONE WELL CHARGED BEFORE THE STORM
ARRIVES.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREAS SHOULD PROTECT WINDOWS AND DOORS
AGAINST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LOOSE
OUTDOOR OBJECTS SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS OR TIED DOWN.

MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS SHOULD CONSIDER WHETHER TO TEMPORARILY
EVACUATE TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER UNTIL THE HIGH WIND AND
TORNADO THREAT PASSES. BE READY TO LEAVE IF A TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED...OR IF YOU ARE DIRECTED TO DO SO BY
LOCAL OFFICIALS.


...WINDS...
THE SPECIFIC FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS TO BE 3O TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 45 TO 50 MPH. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND INCREASE
TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY FOR OSCEOLA COUNTY.

GIVEN THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALONG WITH INHERENT FORECAST
UNCERTAINTIES IN CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY...THERE IS A LIMITED
THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM HIGH WINDS FOR EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY FOR OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. A
REASONABLE LIKELIHOOD EXISTS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39
TO 57 MPH.

LOCAL COMMUNITIES SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST A
VERY LOW BUT NOTEWORTHY IMPACT FROM DAMAGING WIND. THE LIKELIHOOD
EXISTS FOR WINDS TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO CARPORTS...AWNINGS...AND POOL
ENCLOSURES. SOME DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR TO UNANCHORED MOBILE
HOMES. SMALL BRANCHES MAY BREAK OFF TREES...AND LOOSE OBJECTS MAY
BE BLOWN ABOUT. WINDS MAY BECOME DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES AND
CAUSEWAYS... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...FORCING
CLOSURES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.
POTENTIAL DAMAGE IS CONSISTENT WITH THAT REALIZED BY WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE.


...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A 50 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS WITH FAY. THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS IS
LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.


...INLAND FLOODING...
ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH FAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. CONSEQUENTLY...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.


...TORNADOES...
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF FAY. STATISTICALLY...THIS QUADRANT IS THE FAVORED AREA
FOR TORNADOES AND TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUTER
RAINBANDS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS WILL INCREASE
MONDAY AS THE OUTER REACHES OF FAY APPROACH THE AREA. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.


...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND MIDNIGHT EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.


$$

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-054-059-064-141-144-147-
190045-
/O.CON.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-SOUTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
837 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...NEW INFORMATION...
ALTHOUGH WATCHES HAVE NOT BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA...RESIDENTS
AND MARINERS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF ANY NEARING HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY.


...AFFECTED AREAS...
THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR INTERESTS IN
MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...
BREVARD... LAKE...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THIS ALSO INCLUDES THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES.


...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IN CASE ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE NEEDED...THIS IS A GOOD TIME FOR
RESIDENTS TO GO OVER THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND REPLENISH STORM
PROVISIONS SUCH AS...BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS...
DRINKING WATER...CANNED GOODS OR DRIED FOOD... FIRST AID
SUPPLIES...BABY SUPPLIES...AND PRESCRIPTION MEDICINES.


...WINDS...
THE SPECIFIC FORECAST IS FOR WINDS AND GUSTS TO REMAIN BELOW
TROPICAL STORM FORCE DURING THE EVENT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE GUSTS
WITHIN RAINBANDS MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.

GIVEN THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALONG WITH INHERENT FORECAST
UNCERTAINTIES IN CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY...THERE IS A LIMITED
THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM HIGH WINDS.

MARINERS ARE URGED TO CHECK THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
FOR THE LATEST ON MARINE WINDS AND SEAS. INTERESTS AT AREA
PORTS...MARINAS...AND DOCKS SHOULD BE READY TO ACT IF A WATCH OR
WARNING IS ISSUED ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET.


...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A 35 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS WITH FAY. THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS IS
LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.


...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
GIVEN THAT FAY WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE INLAND
DIRECTION...LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AT THIS TIME.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST AND A LAKE
LEVEL NEAR 11.3 FEET...NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN LAKE LEVEL ARE
EXPECTED AS THE WINDS SHIFT IN DIRECTION AND SPEED WITH THE
PASSING STORM.


...INLAND FLOODING...
ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH FAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. CONSEQUENTLY...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.


...TORNADOES...
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF FAY. STATISTICALLY...THIS QUADRANT IS THE FAVORED AREA
FOR TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUTER RAINBANDS.
THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS THE OUTER REACHES
OF FAY APPROACH THE AREA. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS.


...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND MIDNIGHT EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.


$$

000 
WTUS82 KMLB 180358
HLSMLB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1158 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FAY STILL HAS ITS SIGHTS ON THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA.

THIS STATEMENT ALSO PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR INTERESTS
IN MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...
BREVARD...LAKE...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THIS ALSO INCLUDES THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES.


...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE AND
OSCEOLA COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.


...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS
MONDAY NIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH WHEN IT NEARS THE FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY NIGHT.


FLZ053-058-190400-
/O.CON.KMLB.TI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T0000Z/
OSCEOLA-OKEECHOBEE-
1158 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...


...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS NOW MOVING NORTHWEST...BUT WITH A LITTLE
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE
OVERALL TRACK TO THE EAST.


...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...OKEECHOBEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES.


...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE DEFINED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IT IS
RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PREPARE YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS AND REVIEW YOUR
EVACUATION PLAN.

PEOPLE LOCATED IN THE WATCH AREAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO FREQUENTLY
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS MEDIA...FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS EVOLVING SITUATION WITH TROPICAL STORM
FAY. LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
RESIDENTS SHOULD PLAN TO WAKE UP A LITTLE EARLIER ON MONDAY
MORNING IN ORDER TO CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST...THEN ADJUST THEIR
DAY ACCORDINGLY.

WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK
(THAT IS...THE SKINNY BLACK LINE) AS THERE ARE STILL INHERENT
UNCERTAINTIES WHICH MUST BE SMARTLY FACTORED IN FOR SAFETY
PURPOSES. IN ALL CASES...HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND
COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED.

DURING A WATCH...IT IS A GOOD TIME FOR PEOPLE TO GO OVER THEIR
PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND REPLENISH STORM PROVISIONS SUCH
AS...BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS...DRINKING
WATER...CANNED GOODS OR DRIED FOOD... FIRST AID SUPPLIES...BABY
SUPPLIES...AND PRESCRIPTION MEDICINES. GAS UP YOUR VEHICLES AND
HAVE SOME EXTRA FUEL ON HAND FOR GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS IF
NEEDED. IT IS ALSO BEST TO HAVE SOME EXTRA CASH AS CREDIT CARDS
MAY NOT BE AN OPTION IF ELECTRIC POWER GOES OUT. KEEP YOUR CELL
PHONE WELL CHARGED BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREAS SHOULD PROTECT WINDOWS AND DOORS
AGAINST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LOOSE
OUTDOOR OBJECTS SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS OR TIED DOWN.

MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS SHOULD CONSIDER WHETHER TO TEMPORARILY
EVACUATE TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER UNTIL THE HIGH WIND AND
TORNADO THREAT PASSES. BE READY TO LEAVE IF A TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED...OR IF YOU ARE DIRECTED TO DO SO BY
LOCAL OFFICIALS.


...WINDS...
THE SPECIFIC AREA FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS TO BE 30 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN OKEECHOBEE AND
OSCEOLA COUNTIES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH OUT
THE DAY.

GIVEN THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALONG WITH INHERENT FORECAST
UNCERTAINTIES IN CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY...THERE IS A LIMITED
THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM HIGH WINDS FOR EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY FOR OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. A
REASONABLE LIKELIHOOD EXISTS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39
TO 57 MPH.

LOCAL COMMUNITIES SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST A
VERY LOW BUT NOTEWORTHY IMPACT FROM DAMAGING WIND. THE LIKELIHOOD
EXISTS FOR WINDS TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO CARPORTS...AWNINGS...AND POOL
ENCLOSURES. SOME DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR TO UNANCHORED MOBILE
HOMES. SMALL BRANCHES MAY BREAK OFF TREES...AND LOOSE OBJECTS MAY
BE BLOWN ABOUT. WINDS MAY BECOME DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES AND
CAUSEWAYS... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...FORCING
CLOSURES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.
POTENTIAL DAMAGE IS CONSISTENT WITH THAT REALIZED BY WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE.


...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
AT THIS TIME...THERE IS ABOUT A 50 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH FAY. THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE
CONDITIONS IS LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.


...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST AND A LAKE
LEVEL NEAR 11.3 FEET...NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN LAKE LEVEL ARE
EXPECTED AS THE WINDS SHIFT IN DIRECTION AND SPEED WITH THE
PASSING STORM.


...INLAND FLOODING...
ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH FAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. CONSEQUENTLY...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY
OR TUESDAY.


...TORNADOES...
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF FAY. STATISTICALLY...THIS QUADRANT IS THE FAVORED AREA
FOR TORNADOES AND TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUTER
RAINBANDS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS WILL INCREASE
MONDAY AS THE OUTER REACHES OF FAY APPROACH THE AREA. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.


...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 6 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-054-059-064-141-144-147-
190400-
/O.CON.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-SOUTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
1158 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...MORE WIND WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
EARLY MORNING...


...NEW INFORMATION...
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MAY BE INCLUDED IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR ORANGE...SEMINOLE...AND LAKE COUNTIES.


...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR INTERESTS IN
MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...
BREVARD... LAKE...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THIS ALSO INCLUDES THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

ALTHOUGH WATCHES HAVE NOT BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA...RESIDENTS
AND MARINERS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF ANY NEARING HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY.


...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IN CASE ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE NEEDED...THIS IS A GOOD TIME FOR
RESIDENTS TO GO OVER THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND REPLENISH STORM
PROVISIONS SUCH AS...BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS...
DRINKING WATER...CANNED GOODS OR DRIED FOOD... FIRST AID
SUPPLIES...BABY SUPPLIES...AND PRESCRIPTION MEDICINES.

RESIDENTS SHOULD PLAN TO WAKE UP A LITTLE EARLIER ON MONDAY
MORNING IN ORDER TO CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST...THEN ADJUST THEIR
DAY ACCORDINGLY.


...WINDS...
THE SPECIFIC AREA FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS AND GUSTS TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE DURING THE EVENT.
YET...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE WINDY FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS STILL A POSSIBILITY.
ALSO...CONVECTIVE GUSTS WITHIN RAINBANDS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE.

GIVEN THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALONG WITH INHERENT FORECAST
UNCERTAINTIES IN CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY...THERE IS A LIMITED
THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM HIGH WINDS.


...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS WITH FAY FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS A
50 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FOR
ORANGE...SEMINOLE...LAKE...AND INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THE
CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS REMAINS LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.


...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
GIVEN THAT FAY WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE INLAND
DIRECTION...LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IF FAY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE OR SHIFTS A BIT MORE
EASTWARD...THEN THERE MAY BE A VERY LOW BUT NOTEWORTHY THREAT
DURING THE PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE AND ONSHORE WINDS. SUBTLE CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WOULD PROMPT HEIGHTS OF 2 FEET OR LESS.
EITHER WAY...SURF CONDITIONS MAY BECOME ROUGH WITH SOME BEACH
EROSION TAKING PLACE. RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST AND A LAKE
LEVEL NEAR 11.3 FEET...NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN LAKE LEVEL
ARE EXPECTED AS THE WINDS SHIFT IN DIRECTION AND SPEED WITH THE
PASSING STORM.


...INLAND FLOODING...
ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH FAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. CONSEQUENTLY...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY
OR TUESDAY.


...TORNADOES...
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF FAY. STATISTICALLY...THIS QUADRANT IS THE FAVORED AREA
FOR TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUTER RAINBANDS.
THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS THE OUTER REACHES
OF FAY APPROACH THE AREA. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS.

...MARINE...
MARINERS ARE URGED TO CHECK THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
FOR THE LATEST ON MARINE WINDS AND SEAS. INTERESTS AT AREA
PORTS...MARINAS...AND DOCKS SHOULD BE READY TO ACT IF A WATCH OR
WARNING IS ISSUED ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET.


...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 6 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

000 
WTUS82 KMLB 180940
HLSMLB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
540 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET...

FLZ054-059-064-190945-
/O.CAN.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMLB.TR.A.1006.080818T0940Z-000000T0000Z/
INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
540 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AND PROVIDE 
IMPORTANT DETAILS REGARDING THE DEVELOPING THREAT OF EACH TROPICAL 
CYCLONE HAZARD...AND THE NATURE OF THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT UPON THE 
AREA.

$$

AMZ555-575-190945-
/O.CAN.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMLB.TR.A.0001.080818T0940Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
540 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AND PROVIDE 
IMPORTANT DETAILS REGARDING THE DEVELOPING THREAT OF EACH TROPICAL 
CYCLONE HAZARD...AND THE NATURE OF THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT UPON THE 
AREA.

$$

FLZ053-058-190945-
/O.CON.KMLB.TI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T0000Z/
OSCEOLA-OKEECHOBEE-
540 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

...NEXT UPDATE... 
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AND PROVIDE
IMPORTANT DETAILS REGARDING THE DEVELOPING THREAT OF EACH TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAZARD...AND THE NATURE OF THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT UPON THE
AREA.

$$

AMZ550-552-570-572-FLZ041-044>047-141-144-147-190945-
/O.CON.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-COASTAL VOLUSIA-SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
540 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AND PROVIDE 
IMPORTANT DETAILS REGARDING THE DEVELOPING THREAT OF EACH TROPICAL 
CYCLONE HAZARD...AND THE NATURE OF THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT UPON THE 
AREA.

$$

000 
WTUS82 KMLB 181030
HLSMLB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
630 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET...

...TROPICAL STORM FAY OVER CUBA AND CONTINUING TOWARD THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH CONTINUES
FOR OKEECHOBEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES.

A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OKEECHOBEE...SAINT LUCIE AND 
MARTIN COUNTIES.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED OVER 
CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST. THIS POSITION 
IS ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST AND ABOUT 410
MILES SOUTH OF ORLANDO.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS TUESDAY AND FAY IS EXPECTED TO NORTH UP THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND FAY SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FLZ054-059-064-191030-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.A.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
630 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FOR TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED 
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A LITTLE EARLIER ARRIVAL. A FURTHER
EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OKEECHOBEE...SAINT LUCIE AND 
MARTIN COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE 
EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN 
INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE DEFINED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IT IS
RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PREPARE YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS AND REVIEW YOUR 
EVACUATION PLAN. LISTEN FREQUENTLY TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR OTHER 
LOCAL NEWS MEDIA...FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS EVOLVING 
TROPICAL WEATHER THREAT. 

RESIDENTS SHOULD FINALIZE PLANNING FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS 
AND BE READY TO PUT THEIR PLANS INTO MOTION LATER TODAY IF THE WATCH 
IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. 
ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK AS THE STORM 
APPROACHES AND IMPACTS CAN OCCUR FAR FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM. 
ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS 
THAT ARE ISSUED.

FINALIZE PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND REPLENISH STORM PROVISIONS SUCH 
AS...BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS...DRINKING WATER...CANNED 
GOODS OR DRIED FOOD...FIRST AID SUPPLIES...BABY SUPPLIES...AND 
PRESCRIPTION MEDICINES. GAS UP YOUR VEHICLES AND HAVE SOME EXTRA 
FUEL ON HAND FOR GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS IF NEEDED. IT IS ALSO 
BEST TO HAVE SOME EXTRA CASH AS CREDIT CARDS MAY NOT BE AN OPTION IF 
ELECTRIC POWER GOES OUT. KEEP YOUR CELL PHONE WELL CHARGED BEFORE 
THE STORM ARRIVES.

PROTECT WINDOWS AND DOORS AGAINST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH 
HIGHER GUSTS. LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS OR 
TIED DOWN.

MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS SHOULD CONSIDER WHETHER TO TEMPORARILY
EVACUATE TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER UNTIL THE HIGH WIND AND
TORNADO THREAT PASSES. BE READY TO LEAVE IF A TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED...OR IF YOU ARE DIRECTED TO DO SO BY
LOCAL OFFICIALS.

...WINDS...
GIVEN THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALONG WITH INHERENT FORECAST 
UNCERTAINTIES IN CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY...THERE IS A LIMITED 
THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM HIGH WINDS FOR EAST CENTRAL 
FLORIDA...INCLUDING INDIAN RIVER...ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN THE WATCH AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...BECOMING STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WINDS TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO CARPORTS... 
AWNINGS...AND POOL ENCLOSURES. SOME DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR TO 
UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES. SMALL BRANCHES MAY BREAK OFF TREES...AND 
LOOSE OBJECTS MAY BE BLOWN ABOUT. WINDS MAY BECOME DANGEROUS ON 
BRIDGES...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...FORCING CLOSURES. 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. 

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
AT THIS TIME...THERE IS ABOUT A 45 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL 
STORM CONDITIONS WITH FAY. THESE PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED SINCE 
SUNDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST AND A LAKE
LEVEL NEAR 11.3 FEET...NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN LAKE LEVEL ARE
EXPECTED AS THE WINDS SHIFT IN DIRECTION AND SPEED WITH THE
PASSING STORM.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS... 
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA...INCLUDING OKEECHOBEE...SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN 
COUNTIES. THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. 
THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE 
IMMEDIATE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS 
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FAY CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTHWARD. 
RAINBANDS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH FAY ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN 
IMPACTING THE AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...BECOMING MORE FREQUENT 
AND HEAVIER LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

...TORNADOES...
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF FAY. HISTORICALLY...THIS QUADRANT IS THE FAVORED AREA
FOR TORNADOES AND TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUTER
RAINBANDS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS WILL INCREASE 
THIS AFTERNOON AS OUTER RAINBANDS APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE 
HIGHEST THREAT MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. LISTEN FOR 
POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 12 NOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

AMZ555-575-191030-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
630 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MARINERS SHOULD COMPLETE PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TODAY AND OTHERWISE
NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT. 

...WINDS...
AS THE CIRCULATION OF FAY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TUESDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...AT LEAST IN GUSTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
GIVEN THAT FAY WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE INLAND
DIRECTION...LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IF FAY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE OR SHIFTS MORE
EASTWARD...THEN THERE MAY BE A VERY LOW THREAT DURING THE PERIODS
OF HIGH TIDE AND ONSHORE WINDS. SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST WOULD PROMPT HEIGHTS OF 2 FEET OR LESS. EITHER WAY...SURF
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME ROUGH WITH SOME BEACH EROSION TAKING PLACE.
RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM.

...TORNADOES...
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF FAY. HISTORICALLY...THIS QUADRANT IS THE FAVORED AREA
FOR TORNADOES AND TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUTER
RAINBANDS. THE THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AS OUTER RAINBANDS APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE HIGHEST THREAT
MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. 

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 12 NOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

FLZ053-058-191030-
/O.CON.KMLB.TI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T0000Z/
OSCEOLA-OKEECHOBEE-
630 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

...NEW INFORMATION...
THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FOR TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED 
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A LITTLE EARLIER ARRIVAL. A FURTHER
EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OKEECHOBEE...SAINT LUCIE AND 
MARTIN COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. 

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN 
OKEECHOBEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE DEFINED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IT IS
RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PREPARE YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS AND REVIEW YOUR 
EVACUATION PLAN. LISTEN FREQUENTLY TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR OTHER 
LOCAL NEWS MEDIA...FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS EVOLVING 
TROPICAL WEATHER THREAT. 

RESIDENTS SHOULD FINALIZE PLANNING FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS 
AND BE READY TO PUT THEIR PLANS INTO MOTION LATER TODAY IF THE WATCH 
IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. 
ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK AS THE STORM 
APPROACHES AND IMPACTS CAN OCCUR FAR FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM. 
ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS 
THAT ARE ISSUED.

FINALIZE PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND REPLENISH STORM PROVISIONS SUCH 
AS...BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS...DRINKING WATER...CANNED 
GOODS OR DRIED FOOD...FIRST AID SUPPLIES...BABY SUPPLIES...AND 
PRESCRIPTION MEDICINES. GAS UP YOUR VEHICLES AND HAVE SOME EXTRA 
FUEL ON HAND FOR GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS IF NEEDED. IT IS ALSO 
BEST TO HAVE SOME EXTRA CASH AS CREDIT CARDS MAY NOT BE AN OPTION IF 
ELECTRIC POWER GOES OUT. KEEP YOUR CELL PHONE WELL CHARGED BEFORE 
THE STORM ARRIVES.

PROTECT WINDOWS AND DOORS AGAINST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH 
HIGHER GUSTS. LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS OR 
TIED DOWN.

MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS SHOULD CONSIDER WHETHER TO TEMPORARILY
EVACUATE TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER UNTIL THE HIGH WIND AND
TORNADO THREAT PASSES. BE READY TO LEAVE IF A TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED...OR IF YOU ARE DIRECTED TO DO SO BY
LOCAL OFFICIALS.

...WINDS...
GIVEN THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALONG WITH INHERENT FORECAST 
UNCERTAINTIES IN CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY...THERE IS A LIMITED 
THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM HIGH WINDS FOR EAST CENTRAL 
FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY FOR OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. 

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN OKEECHOBEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES 
TUESDAY MORNING...BECOMING STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND 
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WINDS TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO CARPORTS... 
AWNINGS...AND POOL ENCLOSURES. SOME DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR TO 
UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES. SMALL BRANCHES MAY BREAK OFF TREES...AND 
LOOSE OBJECTS MAY BE BLOWN ABOUT. WINDS MAY BECOME DANGEROUS ON 
BRIDGES...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...FORCING CLOSURES. 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. 

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
AT THIS TIME...THERE IS ABOUT A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL 
STORM CONDITIONS WITH FAY. THESE PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED SINCE 
SUNDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST AND A LAKE
LEVEL NEAR 11.3 FEET...NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN LAKE LEVEL ARE
EXPECTED AS THE WINDS SHIFT IN DIRECTION AND SPEED WITH THE
PASSING STORM.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS... 
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA...INCLUDING OKEECHOBEE...SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN 
COUNTIES. THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. 
THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE 
IMMEDIATE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS 
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FAY CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTHWARD. 
RAINBANDS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH FAY ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN 
IMPACTING THE AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...BECOMING MORE FREQUENT 
AND HEAVIER LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

...TORNADOES...
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF FAY. HISTORICALLY...THIS QUADRANT IS THE FAVORED AREA
FOR TORNADOES AND TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUTER
RAINBANDS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS WILL INCREASE 
THIS AFTERNOON AS OUTER RAINBANDS APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE 
HIGHEST THREAT MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. LISTEN FOR 
POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 12 NOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

AMZ550-552-570-572-FLZ041-044>047-141-144-147-191030-
/O.CON.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-COASTAL VOLUSIA-SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
630 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FAY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTH AND WEST FLORIDA...

...NEW INFORMATION...
THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FOR TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED 
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A LITTLE EARLIER ARRIVAL. A FURTHER
EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING AND MAY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN 
BREVARD...VOLUSIA...LAKE...ORANGE...AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IN CASE ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE NEEDED...THIS IS A GOOD TIME REVIEW
PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND REPLENISH STORM PROVISIONS SUCH AS...BATTERIES
FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS... DRINKING WATER...CANNED GOODS OR
DRIED FOOD... FIRST AID SUPPLIES...BABY SUPPLIES...AND
PRESCRIPTION MEDICINES.

RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW FORECAST UPDATES CLOSELY TODAY AS ANY
SHIFT OF THE STORM TRACK WILL CHANGE LOCAL WEATHER IMPACTS.

...WINDS...
THE THREAT IS INCREASING FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS
MORNING OR AFTERNOON.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A 50 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS FOR ORANGE...SEMINOLE...LAKE...AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES. 

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
GIVEN THAT FAY WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE INLAND
DIRECTION...LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IF FAY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE OR SHIFTS A BIT MORE
EASTWARD...THEN THERE MAY BE A VERY LOW BUT NOTEWORTHY THREAT
DURING THE PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE AND ONSHORE WINDS. SUBTLE CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WOULD PROMPT HEIGHTS OF 2 FEET OR LESS.
EITHER WAY...SURF CONDITIONS MAY BECOME ROUGH WITH SOME BEACH
EROSION TAKING PLACE. RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM.

...INLAND FLOODING...
ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH FAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AND MAY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.

...TORNADOES...
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF FAY. STATISTICALLY...THIS QUADRANT IS THE FAVORED AREA
FOR TORNADOES AND TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUTER
RAINBANDS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS WILL INCREASE
MONDAY AS THE OUTER REACHES OF FAY APPROACH THE AREA. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

...MARINE...
MARINERS ARE URGED TO CHECK THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
FOR THE LATEST ON MARINE WINDS AND SEAS. INTERESTS AT AREA
PORTS...MARINAS...AND DOCKS SHOULD BE READY TO ACT IF A WATCH OR
WARNING IS ISSUED ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 6 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE
THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV
AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

$$

000 
WTUS82 KMLB 181622
HLSMLB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1222 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...AT 11 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO COCOA BEACH.  

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM COCOA BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

FLZ141-147-191630-
/O.CAN.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMLB.TR.A.1006.080818T1622Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1222 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO
FERNANDINA BEACH.   A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AND PROVIDE 
IMPORTANT DETAILS REGARDING THE DEVELOPING THREAT OF EACH TROPICAL 
CYCLONE HAZARD...AND THE NATURE OF THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT UPON THE 
AREA. 

$$

AMZ550-570-191630-
/O.CAN.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMLB.TR.A.0002.080818T1622Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
1222 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE BREVARD COUNTY
VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO FLAGLER BEACH TO 60 MILES OFF SHORE. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.


...NEXT UPDATE...THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY
AND PROVIDE IMPORTANT DETAILS REGARDING THE DEVELOPING THREAT OF
EACH TROPICAL CYCLONE HAZARD...AND THE NATURE OF THEIR POTENTIAL
IMPACT UPON THE AREA.

$$

AMZ552-572-191630-
/O.CAN.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMLB.TR.W.0001.080818T1622Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
1222 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE BREVARD COUNTY VOLUSIA
COUNTY LINE SOUTH TO JUPITER INLET AND OUT TO 60 MILES OFF SHORE. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AND PROVIDE 
IMPORTANT DETAILS REGARDING THE DEVELOPING THREAT OF EACH TROPICAL 
CYCLONE HAZARD...AND THE NATURE OF THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT UPON THE 
AREA.
 

$$

FLZ047-191630-
/O.CAN.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMLB.TR.W.1006.080818T1622Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTHERN BREVARD-
1222 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
 

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BREVARD COUNTY SOUTH OF
COCOA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AND PROVIDE 
IMPORTANT DETAILS REGARDING THE DEVELOPING THREAT OF EACH TROPICAL 
CYCLONE HAZARD...AND THE NATURE OF THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT UPON THE 
AREA.
 

$$

FLZ041-044>046-144-191630-
/O.CAN.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMLB.TI.A.0002.080819T1400Z-080820T0200Z/
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE-
1222 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

...NEW INFORMATION...

A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INLAND
VOLUSIA NORTHERN LAKE ORANGE SEMINOLE AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AND PROVIDE 
IMPORTANT DETAILS REGARDING THE DEVELOPING THREAT OF EACH TROPICAL 
CYCLONE HAZARD...AND THE NATURE OF THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT UPON THE 
AREA.
 

$$

FLZ054-059-064-191630-
/O.UPG.KMLB.TR.A.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMLB.TR.W.1006.080818T1622Z-000000T0000Z/
INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
1222 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INDIAN RIVER..SAINT
LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AND PROVIDE 
IMPORTANT DETAILS REGARDING THE DEVELOPING THREAT OF EACH TROPICAL 
CYCLONE HAZARD...AND THE NATURE OF THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT UPON THE 
AREA.
 

$$

AMZ555-575-191630-
/O.UPG.KMLB.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMLB.TR.W.0001.080818T1622Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
1222 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AND PROVIDE 
IMPORTANT DETAILS REGARDING THE DEVELOPING THREAT OF EACH TROPICAL 
CYCLONE HAZARD...AND THE NATURE OF THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT UPON THE 
AREA.

$$

FLZ053-058-191630-
/O.UPG.KMLB.TI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMLB.TI.W.0001.080819T1400Z-080820T0200Z/
OSCEOLA-OKEECHOBEE-
1222 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OSCEOLA AND
OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AND PROVIDE 
IMPORTANT DETAILS REGARDING THE DEVELOPING THREAT OF EACH TROPICAL 
CYCLONE HAZARD...AND THE NATURE OF THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT UPON THE 
AREA.


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
243 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

.DISCUSSION...

...FAY EXPECTED TO IMAPCT THE AREA MON NIGHT-WED...

CURRENTLY...SCATTERED STORMS MORE NUMEROUS NORTH OF INTERSTATE FOUR
WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE AND PROXIMITY OF SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE REGION
ARE HELPING IN UPWARD MOTION. OVER THE SOUTH PRESENCE OF WEAK RIDGE
SLIGHT CAP AND LOWER MOISTURE HAS BEEN LIMITING DEVELOPMENT.
SCT/ISOLD STORMS WILL BE CLOSELY ASCD WITH HEATING AND EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO DRAW TO A GRADUAL CLOSE AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE LAND
AREAS.

TONIGHT/MON...HIGHER MOISTURE WL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD FROM THE MARINE
AREA AS ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW VEERS BY EARLY MONDAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE
SOME BANDED SHOWERS WORKING NORTH ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND
WORDED FOR THIS TO OCCUR DURING MONDAY WITH POPS BECOMING NUMEROUS
OVER THE SOUTH AND HIGH SCATTERED NORTH INLINE WITH APPROACH OF
PERIPHERAL MOISTURE ASCD WITH FAY MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT-WED...FORECAST DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL
STORM FAY...WHICH HAS STRUGGLED TO REMAIN ORGANIZED DUE TO LAND
EFFECTS.  THE LATEST GFS HAS TRENDED MORE TO THE WEST AND SLOWER
WITH ITS TRACK.  THE UKMET IS VERY SIMILAR.  RUN TO RUN CHANGES AND
DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT
ARE EITHER IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES OR FEELING THE EFFECTS OF LAND.
EVEN WITH THE 12Z SHIFT OF THE GFS...THE LATEST GFDL IS STILL
QUITE CLOSE TO THE NHC TRACK.

WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENING AND AXIS SHIFTING NORTH...SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL ADVECT A MORE TROPICAL AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA...SO
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT PATH OF FAY.
THEREFORE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE INCREASING
AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE 60 PERCENT OR HIGHER FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXISTS FOR
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA STARTING IN THE SOUTH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND IN
THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. ALONG WITH INCREASED WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...
TROPICAL CYCLONES APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALSO PRODUCE A
THREAT OF TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS.

THU-SUN...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING CONTINENTAL HIGH
PUSHING OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MERGING WITH BERMUDA HIGH
WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW REGIME.  THIS WOULD BE A BIG
CHANGE FROM THE PATTERN WE HAVE HAD FOR MOST OF THE WET SEASON.  THE
ECMWF HAS ALSO BEEN SHOWING THIS LARGE SCALE CHANGE.  THIS KIND OF
PATTERN WOULD LARGELY BLOW SOME SHOWERS IN OFF THE ATLANTIC
PRIMARILY DURING THE NIGHT/MORNING ALONG THE COAST WITH MAIN STORM
CHANCES BEING ACROSS THE INTERIOR/WESTERN PENINSULA.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/OCNL IFR THROUGH 02Z IN ISOLD/SCT STORMS...BECMG
VFR MOST AREAS AFT 03Z WITH A FEW SCT CU NR 4K FT. SECONDARY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ALONG THE TREASURE COAST ASCD WITH MARINE
SHOWERS WORKING NORTH ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY ASCD WITH LOCAL WIND WAVE WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE COMPONENT CREATING GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEAS ON
MONDAY.

TUE-WED...FORECAST DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF FAY WITH
CURRENT INDICATIONS BEING THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS.

THU-FRI...IF FAY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH AS FORECAST THEN WINDS/SEAS
SHOULD SUBSIDE.  LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT BY FRI THERE WILL BE A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH WOULD BRING
AN ONSHORE FLOW REGIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  86  76  86 /  30  50  50  70
MCO  74  91  74  88 /  30  50  50  70
MLB  76  87  76  86 /  30  50  60  70
VRB  76  86  77  87 /  30  60  70  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

PENDERGRAST/LASCODY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
458 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-172100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
458 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BEGINS
TO PUSH INLAND. THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
LIGHTNING STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCATED BETWEEN SOUTHEAST CUBA AND JAMAICA THIS
MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA TODAY AND APPROACH THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE FORECAST TRACK AND STRENGTH OF FAY STILL HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL
EXPERIENCE IMPACTS FROM FAY. BASED ON THE OFFICIAL TRACK...THE
MAIN CONCERNS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF FAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE ONSET OF
THE WORST CONDITIONS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BEGIN BY THE
PREDAWN HOURS TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS...THEN SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

AT A MINIMUM...PERSONS IN EC FL SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS FROM FAY AND TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES AROUND THE HOME
ACCORDINGLY. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ALSO URGED TO KEEP INFORMED
OF THE LATEST TRACK AND EXPECTED IMPACTS FROM FAY SINCE FORECAST
REVISIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS FAY EVOLVES AND MOVES CLOSER TO FLORIDA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

WIMMER/GLITTO