Tornado Warning 33, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
237 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE VIRGINIAS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING OUT WITH NOT MUCH
DEVELOPMENT IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS STILL TO
THE WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE CAROLINAS. DECIDED NOT TO CHANGE POPS OVERNIGHT AND LEFT IT
AT 50 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE TEMPS CLOSE AND
ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROF WILL AID IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO DRY
OUT SOMEWHAT BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH IN
THE MORNING AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN DURING THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH IN THE VIRGINIAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTY DRY AND WARM FOR THE EXTENDED. DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BE WEST
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON FRIDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE IN BETTER SUPPLY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. COASTAL
PLAINS TROF WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INIT CLUSTER OF SHRA AND PRECIP HAS MOVED E. LINGERING HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT INSTAB MARGINAL. SHLD SEE SOME SCT ACTIVITY
REDEVELOP LATER TODAY AS SRT WAVE APPROACHES BUT FOR NOW JUST WENT
WITH VCTS IN TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AS COLD
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE W SUN INTO TUE WILL SEE OCNL
BATCHES OF SHRA AND TSRA...TIMING OF PRECIP WILL BE TRICKY BUT
THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIOD OF REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS WITH
CONVECTION INTO TUE. CONT VFR WED AND THU WITH HIGH PRES CONT
OFFSHR.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. HIGH PRES OFFSHR AND COLD
FRONT VERY SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL CONT S/SW WINDS
THROUGH EARLY TUE. FRONT WILL BE WASHING OUT AS IT REACHES CST LATER
TUE AND WED WITH NOT MUCH OF A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED WITH IT. HIGH
PRES WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE INTO THU. MDLS HAVE BACKED OFF WINDS A
BIT SUN INTO MON AND KEPT WINDS BELOW 20 KTS AND SEAS MAINLY AOB 4
FT INTO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. SCT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME WITH MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT OVER REGION
ESPCLY TONIGHT THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF
MARINE...RF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
313 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

NCZ029-044-079-080-090>095-098-103-104-220715-
MARTIN-PITT-GREENE-BEAUFORT-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
CARTERET-ONSLOW-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
313 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ045>047-081-220715-
WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-MAINLAND HYDE-
313 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL.

SMOKE FROM A LARGE WILDFIRE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLAND HYDE
AND DARE COUNTIES AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF TYRRELL AND WASHINGTON
COUNTY. VISIBILITY MAY BE SHARPLY REDUCED IN THICK SMOKE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE VICINITY OF HIGHWAYS 94 AND 264.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

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