Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
247 PM EST TUE JAN 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...IT WAS NOT AS WET TODAY AS EXPECTED EARLIER...BUT
SOME SHOWERS ARE FINALLY DEVELOPING AGAIN OVER EASTERN AREAS.
DROPPED POPS BACK TO CHANCE CATEGORY AREA WIDE THROUGH THIS
EVENING DUE TO THE LESSER COVERAGE CURRENTLY DEPICTED AND
EXPECTATIONS OF ONLY SCATTERED COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STILL AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT THUNDER...SO WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
THROUGH 00Z.

THE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEAKLY ACROSS FLORIDA TO
OUR NORTH. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN E-SE WIND FLOW...BUT MUCH WEAKER
THAN RECENT. THIS WEAKER FLOW...COMBINED WITH HIGH SURFACE
MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...COULD LEAD TO FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT. GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG AT KPGD
OVERNIGHT...SO OUR INTERIOR AREAS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
FOR NOW...KEPT PATCHY FOG MENTION ALL BUT THE EAST COAST AREAS.
ONLY THING GOING AGAINST DEPICTING A WIDER COVERAGE OF FOG IS THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS THAT COULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. I THINK THAT HOW LOW THE VISIBILITY WILL GET
IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. IF IT
CLEARS MORE THAN EXPECTED...DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
INLAND AREAS...BUT FOR NOW THIS IS UNCERTAIN SO LEFT THIS OUT OF
THE FCST AT THIS TIME.

A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT/WED...WITH THE TAIL END DRAPING ACROSS NORTH INTO CENTRAL
FL BY WED AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED LOCALLY LATER TONIGHT THRU WED. ONE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT WOULD BE IF A MORE WELL-DEFINED LAND BREEZE WERE
TO SET UP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. NAM-WRF SHOWS A SUBTLE LAND
BREEZE...BUT NOT GOING FULLY NW ALONG THE EAST COAST...SO FOR NOW
WILL BUY INTO THE INHERITED POPS WHICH MATCH UP CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...IF LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS...THIS WOULD LEAD TO BETTER
CONVERGENCE EAST COAST WED MORNING...POSSIBLY LEADING TO MORE
SHOWERS...BUT THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST TO PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTH
FL THU EVENING. WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT THU...BUT COOLER WEATHER WILL POUR IN
THU NIGHT-FRI...THOUGH NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE TEMP-WISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL END DURING THE EVENING. HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE SHORTWAVE WILL NOT BE DEEP
AND WILL MOVE EAST TO OUR NORTH. THUS...WINDS WILL TURN NE THEN
EASTERLY BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MODERATING TEMPS TO THE
AREA. EXTENDED MOS NUMBERS LOOK LOW AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
TO THE EXTENDED FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...THE VIS AND CEILING SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BUT THE COVERAGE
WILL BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS. SO WILL ONLY
MENTION VCSH IN THE TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THE WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO WILL PUT A TEMPO GROUP
IN FOR FOG FOR KTMB AND TAPF TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE BEEN FINALLY SUBSIDING ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY...BUT STILL ARE HIGHER THAN GFS INDICATES...SO
FOLLOWED THE NAM IN THE SHORT TERM. STILL...WINDS NOW ARE AT OR
UNDER 15 KT AT THE OB SITES (WHEN TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SENSOR
HGHT). WILL NEED AN EXERCISE CAUTION FOR SMALL CRAFT THIS EVENING
DUE TO SEAS OF UP TO 6 FT...BUT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE TRANQUIL NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THEN THE
NEXT COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THU EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WINDS/SEAS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...ESPECIALLY IN THE
GULF STREAM DUE TO THE NORTHERLY FLOW AGAINST THE CURRENT. WINDS
LOOK TO TURN EAST AND CONTINUE QUITE BRISK AT 15-20 KT OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...LEADING TO ANOTHER WEEKEND OF HEIGHTENED RIP
CURRENT POTENTIAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AS RHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THU EVENING...BUT BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW THAT
WINDS WILL TURN QUICKLY NE SO AT THIS TIME...CRITICAL RHS ARE
NOT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  80  67  81 / 30 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  80  69  82 / 30 20 20 20
MIAMI            69  81  69  82 / 30 20 20 20
NAPLES           64  80  67  77 / 30 20 20 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1050 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-230100-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1050 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2008

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON...
...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS, COMBINED WITH LOW TIDE
AROUND 2 PM, LEAD TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF
PALM BEACH, BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS: ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL
LEAD TO POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKE WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THE STORMS.

WAVES: THOUGH WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING, GULF STREAM SEAS
WILL STILL BE 4 TO 6 FEET FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

BAXTER