High Wind Warning 48, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

.AVIATION...
SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY PASSING NORTH OF MAF... WHILE RAIN
WILL PROBABLY MISS THE AIRPORT... STRONG WIND WILL CONTINUE
ON AND OFF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DIFFERENT OUTFLOWS MOVE
ACROSS THE SITE.  MOST TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE AT LEAST ONE
LARGE OUTFLOW OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND BLOWING
DUST REDUCING VSBYS TO 1 MILE AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 582

DISCUSSION...
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND EAST OF LUBBOCK IS
PROPOGATING SOUTH...BUT HAS THROWN OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH
IS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. CINH IS
WEAKEST IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHICH IS THE MOST LIKELY PLACE TO
SEE THUNDERSTORMS EITHER DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...OR MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. STRONG WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS THOUGH ANYTHING DEVELOPING
ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

HENNIG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION OCCURRING BOTH IN AND AROUND THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER
NOT DIRECTLY AFFECTING TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS TO SEE ANY TSRA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KCNM AND
KHOB...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN TAFS AS
ACTIVITY ACROSS SE NM STILL ISOLATED AT THIS TIME. LARGE COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
AND POSSIBLY CLIP INTO EASTERN PERIPHERY OF FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO STAY EAST OF THE KMAF AREA TONIGHT...SO
AGAIN...DID NOT PUT TSRA EXPECTATIONS IN TAFS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DROP INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT PROVIDING A NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SHIFT IN THE 20/08Z TO
20/10Z TIMEFRAME. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. ONCE IT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT BACK
AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE TOMORROW EVENING.
/13/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ALONG
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ALL SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. YESTERDAY/S 12Z NAM/WRF12 WAS
GENEROUS IN IT/S QPF OUTPUT...WHEREAS TODAY/S RUN HAS BACKED OFF
ON QPF. THE NAM/WRF HAS TYPICALLY BEEN DOING BETTER WITH RECENT
PRECIPITATION... SO WE HAVE TAKEN THE LATEST RUN INTO
CONSIDERATION. WHILE WE HAVE MADE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PREFER TO KEEP AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN. WE
WILL ALSO KEEP A MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH
OF A TATUM NEW MEXICO TO BIG SPRING LINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY MCS ACTIVITY. MCS ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AFFECTING THE REGION. IN THIS PATTERN...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION
FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING
PLAINS. WE HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES
AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 850MB
BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK REMAIN UNCLEAR...BUT IF THE LATEST GFS VERIFIES...WE MAY
NEED TO INCREASE SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
725 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-210030-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
725 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008 /625 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH 2 AM CDT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING ALSO A DANGER TO
START FIRES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO CAUSE MINOR RIVER
OR AREAL FLOODING TO OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF A
VAN HORN TO BIG LAKE LINE.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
908 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

TXZ047-048-200300-
SCURRY-BORDEN-
908 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR BORDEN AND SCURRY COUNTIES.

AN INTENSIFYING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 9 MILES
NORTHEAST OF GAIL TO 11 MILES NORTH OF MIDWAY AT 908 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAIL TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WINDS TO
55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

TAKE SHELTER NOW UNTIL THIS WEATHER THREAT HAS PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FRIDAY
MORNING FOR WEST TEXAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
929 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

TXZ046-200300-
DAWSON-
929 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR DAWSON COUNTY.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
KEY TO 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF PUNKIN CENTER AT 929 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 30 MPH. HAIL TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WINDS TO
50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FRIDAY
MORNING FOR WEST TEXAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1001 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

TXZ046>048-052-053-200330-
SCURRY-BORDEN-DAWSON-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
1001 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR BORDEN...DAWSON...HOWARD...
MITCHELL AND SCURRY COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM PUNKIN CENTER TO 6
MILES NORTHEAST OF VINCENT AT 1001 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 14 MPH.
HAIL TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WINDS TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FRIDAY
MORNING FOR WEST TEXAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1122 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

NMZ028-029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-058>063-067>070-075-200630-
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-
SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-
HOWARD-MITCHELL-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-
WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-PECOS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ARTESIA...CARLSBAD...
CARLSBAD CAVERNS NP...TATUM...HOBBS...LOVINGTON...EUNICE...JAL...
SEMINOLE...LAMESA...GAIL...SNYDER...ANDREWS...STANTON...
BIG SPRING...COLORADO CITY...PECOS...MENTONE...RED BLUFF LAKE...
KERMIT...ODESSA...MIDLAND...GARDEN CITY...MONAHANS...CRANE...
MCCAMEY...RANKIN...BIG LAKE...FORT STOCKTON
1122 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008 /1022 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2008/

...STRONG WINDS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN
BASIN...

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS IS QUICKLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD...EXPECT STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 50 MPH. BLOWING DUST MAY
ALSO REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO ONE MILE OR LESS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS OF THESE STRONG WINDS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE OR LIGHT WEIGHT VEHICLES. BE
PREPARED TO SLOW DOWN...ESPECIALLY WHEN ENCOUNTERING REDUCED
VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST.

THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND
THE UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
120 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

TXZ051-052-063-200700-
HOWARD-MARTIN-GLASSCOCK-
120 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR EASTERN MARTIN...HOWARD AND
NORTHERN GLASSCOCK COUNTIES.

AT 116 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
MONITORING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDED FROM JUST EAST OF
LENORAH...TO NEAR BIG SPRING...TO NEAR LEES IN FAR NORTHERN
GLASSCOCK COUNTY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND
40 MPH.

EXPECT STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND VERY HEAVY RAINS WITH THESE STORMS.

PERSONS IN EASTERN MARTIN...HOWARD...AND NORTHERN GLASSCOCK
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THOSE IN BIG SPRING...FORSAN AND COAHOMA SHOULD
SEEK SAFE SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.