High Wind Warning 32, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WWUS74 KMAF 211853
NPWMAF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
153 PM CDT MON APR 21 2008

NMZ027-TXZ258-212000-
/O.CAN.KMAF.HW.W.0032.000000T0000Z-080422T0000Z/
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUEEN...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP...
PINE SPRINGS
1253 PM MDT MON APR 21 2008

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND/ODESSA HAS CANCELLED THE
HIGH WIND WARNING. 

HIGH WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THEREFORE THE HIGH
WIND WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
435 AM CDT MON APR 21 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROMOTES DOWNSLOPE
WINDS AND DRYING AIR AT THE SURFACE.  MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AGAIN
LOOK SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WITHIN TIGHT UPPER FLOW FOR HIGH WINDS IN
THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TODAY.  THEREFORE...WILL UPGRADE THE HIGH
WIND WATCH TO A WARNING WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM UNTIL 6
PM MDT.  THINK WIND SPEEDS WILL YIELD A LOW END EVENT...35 TO 45 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 65 MPH...AND DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY BEFORE
SUNSET THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL WINDS SPEEDS RELAX.  DRY AIR WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY THE LOWER TRANS PECOS...
PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS SEEING MOISTURE RETURN
AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THESE AREAS.

HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STOCKTON PLATEAU AND LOWER TRANS PECOS WHERE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO IMPINGE UPON THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HENCE THE
LOW ORDER POPS.  A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A FACTOR WITH ANY
CONVECTION AND DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO APPRECIABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.  THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
A LITTLE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE ABOVE AREAS AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSES THE AREA.  A REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY NOT LIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION BEHIND IT WHILE A DRYLINE AND/OR TRIPLE POINT AND WARM
SECTOR COULD RESIDE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CWA.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE AIDED BY THE LFQ OF AN 80+ KT
H25 JET...CAPE VALUES POSSIBLY GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 J/KG AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.  HAVE
INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY...AND A LITTLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HWO.

LEFT THE FORECAST DRY THURSDAY...BUT ADDED SLIGHT POPS FRIDAY AS A
STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  EXPECT SOME
COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
POOR RECOVERY WAS AGAIN AFFLICTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS
CONTINUING WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. RECOVERY WAS GOOD OR BETTER ALONG AND EAST
OF THE PECOS RIVER.  SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND DROP AFTERNOON RH/S INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST
LOCATIONS.  THINK THE BETTER WINDS WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS...VAN HORN AREA...UPPER TRANS PECOS...GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS.  HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THESE AREAS...DESPITE WIND SPEEDS BEING MARGINAL OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT RECOVERY OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN AND
POOR TO FAIR RECOVERY OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.  RH/S WILL AGAIN
DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT MOST AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOCATIONS
OUT WEST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.  WIND SPEEDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG
ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH EXCEPTION OF GAPS AND PASSES IN THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.  RECOVERY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETTER AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE MOST AREAS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              92  55  88  63  /   0   0   0  20
CARLSBAD NM                91  48  90  54  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  97  64  94  68  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           95  58  93  65  /   0   0  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          78  50  90  55  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   89  49  88  54  /   0   0   0  20
MARFA TX                   84  39  87  51  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    92  54  92  61  /   0   0   0  20
ODESSA TX                  93  55  93  62  /   0   0   0  20
WINK TX                    97  51  98  62  /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF
     EDDY COUNTY.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
     NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
     CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
     LOVING...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND
     HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.

&&

77/67

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
419 AM CDT MON APR 21 2008

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-220930-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
419 AM CDT MON APR 21 2008 /319 AM MDT MON APR 21 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS...VAN
HORN/HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...AND UPPER TRANS PECOS. WINDY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MDT UNTIL 9 PM MDT.

VERY WINDY TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TODAY. EXPECT WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 65 MPH. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MDT UNTIL 6
PM MDT MONDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING MID WEEK.
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS...
STOCKTON PLATEAU...PERMIAN BASIN...AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND