Alert archive / Missouri / Flash Flood Warnings in 2008

Flash Flood Warning 75, NWS St. Louis, MO

July 8, 2008Marion County, Missouri

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this flash flood warning at Jul 8, 2008, 3:14 PM CDT for Marion County, Missouri. It was in force for 5 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 8, 2008, 3:14 PM CDT (20:14 UTC)
Expired: Jul 8, 2008, 8:15 PM CDT
In force: 5 hr
Issued by: NWS St. Louis, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

County Marion County, MO

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 8, 6:02 PM CDT	FLASH FLOOD	Hannibal, MO	LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER MANY AREAS OF RALLS AND MARION COUNTIES REPORTED BY MISSOURI DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION. WATER AS DEEP AS 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RUNNING WATER IN PLACES.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this flash flood warning; the first came 168 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 223 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 80 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -136 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 700 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 50 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 15 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS53 KLSX 082014
FFWLSX
MOC127-090115-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FF.W.0075.080708T2014Z-080709T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
314 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  MARION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 312 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
  FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES UP TO 2       
  INCHES HAS FALLEN SINCE 200 PM AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF    
  OVER AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 400 PM.

* FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL BE
  AFFECTING WARREN...PHILADELPHIA AND PALMYRA.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3990 9145 3987 9145 3983 9142 3972 9137
      3969 9132 3969 9172 3966 9173 3966 9185
      3989 9185

$$

CARNEY

1 follow-up statement

000 
WGUS73 KLSX 090110
FFSLSX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
810 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008

MOC127-090120-
/O.EXP.KLSX.FF.W.0075.000000T0000Z-080709T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARION MO-
810 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 815 PM CDT FOR MARION
COUNTY...

A CHECK WITH AREA LAW ENFORCEMENT INDICATES THAT FLOODING IS NO
LONGER A PROBLEM IN THE AREA.

LAT...LON 3990 9145 3987 9145 3983 9142 3972 9137
      3969 9132 3969 9172 3966 9173 3966 9185
      3989 9185

$$

TES

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 8, 2:47 PM CDT, 27 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 8, 2:47 PM CDT, 27 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
247 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
/243 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008/
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST IA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
MO INTO SOUTHWEST KS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT FRONT TO SAG
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY AND STALL OUT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. CONVECTION WAS INCREASING/ADVECTING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. LAPS DATA INDICATED THE HIGHEST CAPES WERE LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL MO WITH LI-S OF -5.

SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS FORECAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WITH
KS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD. FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL MO FOR TONIGHT.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN FORECASTING THAT DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THE CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

THE HEAT WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND HAS BEEN CUT SHORT. THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. LARGE
HIGH WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

TPS
&&

.AVIATION...
/1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...RATHER COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PACKAGE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS WOULD INDICATE THAT ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS SW MO AND ERN KS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ENE
INTO CENTRAL AND ERN MO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AIRMASS DESTABILIZING
AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION...TSRA MAY DEVELOP AND AFFECT
SITES EARLIER THAN TEMPOS IN FORECAST BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHUD
BE CORRECT. WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL IN NRN IA...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL TROF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD THIS EVE AND
AFFECT COU...STL AND SUS AROUND MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS
WILL BECOME NLY AND CIGS WILL LIFT LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING.

TILLY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BOONE-CALLAWAY-
     COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-MONITEAU-OSAGE-WASHINGTON.

IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 8, 3:50 AM CDT, 11 hours 24 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
350 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-091200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
350 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
ST. LOUIS METROPOLITAN AREA AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. HEAT INDICES
WILL TOP OUT NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW.

MODERATE RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENT FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70 AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OZARKS.

MODERATE RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENT FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY RAINFALL
REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST. LOUIS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

CVKING

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 8, 1:45 PM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	LSX	Audrain, Boone, Callaway, Cole, Crawford, Franklin and 14 more	14 hr
Jul 8, 2:41 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LSX	Shelby	6 hr
Jul 8, 2:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Marion, Ralls	45 min
Jul 8, 3:10 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LSX	Ralls	5 hr
Jul 8, 3:29 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Ralls	46 min
Jul 8, 4:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Audrain, Boone	30 min
Jul 8, 4:31 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LSX	Monroe	3 days
Jul 8, 4:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Audrain, Callaway, Lincoln, Montgomery, Pike, Ralls and 1 more	53 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2008 Every flash flood warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.