Flash Flood Warning 64, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WGUS73 KLSX 200057
FFSLSX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
743 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

MOC113-200053-
/O.EXP.KLSX.FF.W.0064.000000T0000Z-080620T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LINCOLN MO-
743 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING EXPIRED AT 745 PM CDT FOR EASTERN LINCOLN 
COUNTY...

WATER WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW THROUGH THE LEVEE BREAK NEAR HIGHWAY M 
IN EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY.  THE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE IN THE 
KINGS LAKE AND SOUTHERN ELSBERRY LEVEE DISTRICTS TO THE EAST OF  
HIGHWAY 79 BETWEEN FOLEY AND ELSBERRY AS LONG AS THE MISSISSIPPI 
RIVER CONTINUES TO RISE.

A SEPARATE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM FOR 
NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTIES IN THE ELSBERRY 
LEVEE DISTRICT.

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

LAT...LON 3918 9072 3917 9071 3914 9072 3911 9069
      3908 9069 3906 9071 3907 9074 3907 9075
      3918 9079
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 180DEG 0KT 3909 9071

$$

BRITT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1257 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...
/123 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2008/

HIGH PRESSURE COVERED THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PLEASANT MID JUNE WEATHER. SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAINED IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUED THIS MORNING WITH CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHORT WAVES WILL ROLL DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. DIFFICULT TO TIME THE SHORT WAVES SO
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS
THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WEST
MO LATE THIS WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF NOW IN
FORECASTING A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY. THIS
TIME PERIOD SHOULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TPS

&&

.AVIATION...
/1250 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXISTS QUITE CLEARLY ON
SATELLITE FROM NEAR KIRK-JUST NE OF KCOU-KSTL. THIS WILL BE THE
BEST AREA FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT INDEPENDENT FROM THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR
ANY DEVELOPMENT AND AMEND AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS PERVAIL THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER AREA OF
UNCERTAINTY WILL COME WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND WHERE THEY TAKE IT...AS CONSENSUS STILL SEEMS TO
FAVOR MOVING IT INTO WRN MO THEN DROPPING IT SWD. THIS WILL
LARGELY BYPASS OUR FA...BUT MAY STILL DEVELOP SCT SHRA/TSRA ON THE
SWRN EDGE LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MRNG.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
358 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-201200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
358 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE.

MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS RIVERS. SEE THE APPROPRIATE
FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.

MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS RIVERS. SEE THE APPROPRIATE
FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TILLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1040 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E WINFIELD            39.00N  90.72W
06/18/2008                   LINCOLN            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 HOMES FLOODED OUT FROM CAP AU GRIS LEVEE BREACH

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00485

TES