Tornado Warning 22, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1030 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

MAIN STORY IS THE SUPERCELL APPROACHING DOWNTOWN NASHVILLE, TN...BUT
FOR US SQUALL LINE IS APPROACHING RAPIDLY AND IS IN DUBOIS COUNTY.
LATEST FT KNOX VWP HAS ABOUT 20 DEGREES OF BACKING AS UPPER JET
TRAVERSES EASTWARD.  LIS ARE STILL -2 TO -3...AND WIND FIELDS ARE IN
THE EXTREME CATEGORY.  MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS
LINE...BUT WE ARE WATCHING CELL MERGERS WITH WAA PRECIP MOVING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE WHICH COULD ACCENT THE TOR THREAT.

MEANWHILE...ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN DUBOIS COUNTY ARE WET...AND IT
WONT TAKE MUCH MORE TO FLOOD. WE EXPECT 1 TO 1 AND ONE HALF INCHES
OF RAIN OVER NEXT SEVER HOURS.  WE ISSUED FFWS FOR DUBOIS AND ORANGE
COUNTIES WITH LEWP MOVING EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 926 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008/

 FOR US AN IMPRESSIVE TORNADIC SUPERCELL JUST PAST OHIO COUNTY SEAT
OF HARTFORD WHERE SIRENS ARE BLOWING. NO REPORTS YET OF ANY DAMAGE
IN OHIO COUNTY...WITH FUNNEL CLOUD REPORT FROM TRAINED SPOTTER.
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WITH IT.
LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STIFFEN AND WILL BE A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR
TO HEAVY RAIN OVER SRN INDIAN FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THERE ARE 3 MORE SUPERCELLS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN TN WILL BE THE OTHER CONCERN AS THEY WORK OFF TO THE NE AT
40 MPH.

INSTABILITY STILL REMAINS MODEST AND WITH 0-3 SRH VALUES ON LATEST
ACARS SOUNDING AT BNA NEAR 800 M2/S2. THE HODOGRAPH FROM THAT
AIRCRAFT IS VERY TWISTY AND ONCE AGAIN FEEL THE PRIMARY TOR THREAT
IS FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I65.

JDG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 833 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008/

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

ONE TORNADIC SUPERCELL IN NE CHRISTIAN COUNTY HAS 60KTS OF
ROTATIONAL VELOCITY AND WILL BE WESTERN OHIO COUNTY AROUND 02Z. THIS
STORM APPEARS TO BE A CYCLIC AND MAY BE UNDERGOING SPLITTING ON SRN
FLANK OVER LAST VOLUME SCAN WITH 70 DBZ.  LATEST 00Z SOUNDINGS ARE
IMPRESSIVE:

            OHX         JAN
SWEAT       485         477
LIS         -5          -5
0 TO 3 SRH  450 M2/S2   440 M2/S2
CAPE        800 J/KG    970

THIS CELL IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WIND FIELDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THRU 850 MB.  IN FACTS O00Z SOUNDINGS ALL
HAVE 40-55 KTS AT 850MB WITH SOUNDINGS.

PWS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...AND FLOOD THREAT OVER SRN INDIANA IS
BECOMING AN INCREASING RISK.

WE WILL HAVE SEVERAL MESO UPDATES TONIGHT FOR THIS PDS SITUATION
WEST OF I65.

JDG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 637 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008/

..SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...

AFTERNOON VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.  MORNING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA.  A FEW AREA OF SCT SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS KENTUCKY WITH
MORE DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE ACROSS SW TN.  QUITE A GRADIENT IN
TEMPERATURES NOTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.

DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWS DESTABILIZATION IN
PROGRESS MAINLY WEST OF I-65 THIS AFTERNOON.  COMBINATION OF SFC
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S HAS YIELDED
SFC LIFTED INDICES OF -2C TO -3C WITH CAPES OF 300-800 J/KG.  CAPES
GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG EXISTS WEST OF THE LMK CWA WHERE MORE SUN HAS
HELPED INCREASE INSTABILITY.  SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN TN AND FAR SW KY.  LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS
THAT SCATTERED/DISCRETE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE ACROSS OUR
WESTERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE QUICK AS
THE MODELS TEND TO UNDER FORECAST CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SOME SUPERCELLULAR STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH STORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS.  THUS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

LATE TONIGHT...CONVECTION WELL TO OUR WEST IS FORECAST TO CONGEAL
INTO A LARGE SQUALL LINE THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY.  THE MODEL TREND IN THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN
THE SYSTEM.  IN FACT...EVEN THE LATEST RUC SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT
SLOWER.  GIVEN THE DATA RIGHT NOW...LARGE SQUALL LINE SHOULD MOVE
INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS BY LATE EVENING...PERHAPS AROUND 10-11 PM
EST.  THE CORRIDOR BETWEEN SDF AND BWG WOULD LIKELY TAKE A HIT
BETWEEN 11-2 AM EST WITH THE FRANKFORT AND LEXINGTON AREAS SEEING
THE ACTION PROBABLY AFTER 3AM EST.  MAIN THREAT WITH THIS LINE WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MAIN LINE.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE A HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT
ACROSS OUR INDIANA COUNTIES DUE TO PREVIOUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING.  WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WILL EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS OUR INDIANA
COUNTIES THROUGH 700 AM WED.

COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY WED MORNING
FOLLOWED BY A FALL IN TEMPERATURES.  SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LOOK
POSSIBLE AS H5 THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE REGION.  GRADIENT WINDS
WILL BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IN EXCEEDING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT VERY HIGH...SO PLAN ON
HOLDING OFF ON THAT HEADLINE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM AS MORE COOLER
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.  EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A SECOND SURGE ARCTIC AIR MAKES
ITS WAY IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A CLIPPER CURRENTLY PROGGED TO HAVE
A BIGGER IMPACT ON THE EAST COAST THAN THE OHIO VALLEY.

AT THIS TIME THE WEEKEND SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO OFFER MUCH MORE
THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...BUT SOME
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR IN SOUTHERN INDIANA.  HOWEVER...TOO
FAR OUT AT THIS TIME FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL SEE SAW FROM 40S THURSDAY TO LOWER
50S FRIDAY...THEN BACK DOWN TO 30S ON SATURDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO
NEAR 50 BY TUESDAY.

MIN TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS SUN AND 20S MONDAY...OTHERWISE
MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...

ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING WITH LI/S -3 TO -4 TO OUR WEST. LINES OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM WESTERN TN NORTH INTO
WESTERN KENTUCKY. STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE
IMPACTING BWG AND SDF LATER THIS EVENING. UNTIL THEN CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL REMAIN VFR. EXPECT TSTMS TO MOVE INTO BWG AFT 02Z WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN. STORMS SHOULD REACH SDF AFTER 04Z THEN
ABOUT 06Z AT LEX. EXPECT GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 KTS OR MORE IN SEVERE
STORMS. A SECOND LINE WILL FOLLOW WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT.
CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MVFR AND BRIEFLY IN VFR
RANGE. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH CIGS AND VSBYS IMPROVING BACK TO
VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY DURING THE
DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ032.

IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR INZ076>079-
     083-084-089>092.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
340 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-061000-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
340 PM EST (240 PM CST) TUE FEB 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GENERALLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65.  SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

LATER TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE REGION.  ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT WILL BE A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AFTER 10 PM EST.  THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS LINE
OF STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS MAY LEAD TO LOCAL FLOODING
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA.  A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

COLDER AIR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS WILL BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

MJ/JBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1157 PM EST TUE FEB 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1148 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JEFFERSONVILLE          38.30N 85.73W
02/05/2008                   CLARK              IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES WERE DOWNED.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1204 AM EST WED FEB 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N HARTFORD            37.48N 86.89W
02/05/2008                   OHIO               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A HOUSE HAD SEVERE ROOF DAMAGE.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1215 AM EST WED FEB 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1213 AM     TSTM WND GST     PLEASURE RIDGE PARK     38.15N 85.85W
02/06/2008  E60 MPH          JEFFERSON          KY   AMATEUR RADIO

            AT TERRY AND GREENWOOD ROAD. SPOTTER REPORTED DEBRIS
            HITTING THE SIDE OF THE HOUSE.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1219 AM EST WED FEB 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1206 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ELIZABETH               38.13N 85.97W
02/06/2008                   HARRISON           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER LINES DOWNED.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1220 AM EST WED FEB 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1219 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LOUISVILLE              38.22N 85.74W
02/06/2008                   JEFFERSON          KY   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWER LINES WERE DOWNED AT THE STATE FAIRGROUNDS.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1225 AM EST WED FEB 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1223 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LOUISVILLE              38.22N 85.74W
02/06/2008                   JEFFERSON          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LINDSEY AVENUE WAS FLOODED NEAR THE VA HOSPITAL. SPOTTER
            ESTIMATED 70 MPH WINDS.

&&

MRC