Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS North Platte, NE

000 
WGUS73 KLBF 071155
FFSLBF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
655 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2008

NEC085-071315-
/O.CON.KLBF.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-080807T1315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HAYES NE-
655 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 AM CDT FOR HAYES
COUNTY...

AT 649 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED
AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HAYES CENTER
STATE WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE 
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA. 

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN NORTH
PLATTE.

LAT...LON 4035 10134 4061 10134 4070 10133 4070 10077
      4034 10078 4034 10133

$$

SPRINGER

000 
WGUS73 KLBF 071313
FFSLBF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
813 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2008

NEC085-071322-
/O.EXP.KLBF.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-080807T1315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HAYES NE-
813 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 815 AM CDT/715 AM MDT/ FOR
HAYES COUNTY...

HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS HAYES COUNTY. LIGHT RAIN WILL 
LINGER...WITH MINOR RUNNOFF POSSIBLE. 


LAT...LON 4035 10134 4061 10134 4070 10133 4070 10077
      4034 10078 4034 10133

$$

KAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
314 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH THE CWA POSITIONED WEST OF THE AXIS OF THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE...FAVORING GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY SFC FLOW. A LONG
LIVED MCS IS OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND MAY
IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. OTHERWISE...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION AS A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND
A TROUGH IS POSITIONED TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE...THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL ONLY SLOWLY DRIFT EAST DURING THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITHIN AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND SHORT
TERM MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE DEPICTED THIS WELL. EXPECT THIS FOG
TO DISSIPATE BY 15Z. MODEL FCSTS THEN INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL STABILIZE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EVIDENT BY DECREASING
MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LVL MOISTURE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE CWA MIGHT BE WARRANTED. HOWEVER...THE GFS DOES
BRING A MID LVL DISTURBANCE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
LIGHTNING...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WITH NO THUNDER. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...REMNANT
CLOUD COVER/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/COOL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
ONGOING MCS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS IS FCST TO
LINGER OVER OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...AND WILL LIKELY YIELD THE
LOWEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY AIR
ALOFT/CLEARING SKIES...AND THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LVL ANTICYCLONE
APPEAR TO FAVOR COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

ON FRIDAY...A PV DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
IS FCST BY THE NAM /AND ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE SREF AS WELL/ TO
APPROACH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE IS ALSO FCST TO RETURN
NORTHWARD /EVIDENT BY STRENGTHENING 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
1.25-1.8 PWAT VALUES MOVING NORTH/ INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES MAY FAVOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER OUR FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS FCST TO ONCE AGAIN SET UP OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY...AND THE LATEST GFS ROTATES
A S/W TROUGH AROUND AN UPR LVL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...BEGAN TO FOCUS HIGHER POPS TOWARD OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. THEN FOR SUNDAY...SHIFTED HIGHEST POPS BACK
TOWARDS THE WEST...WHERE ANOTHER PASSING WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. BEYOND SUNDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
OF A SFC WAVE/UPR LVL S/W TROUGH EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN/ECMWF/OPERATIONAL GFS...THEREFORE MADE FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FCST AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

    SHORT TERM FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS INSTRUMENT TO LOW INSTRUMENT
CEILINGS CONTINUING THIS MORNING SOUTH AND WEST OF AN
AIA-VTN-ANW-ONL-BBW LINE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. WITH LIGHT EAST
SURFACE WIND AND 95-100 PERCENT BOUNDARY LAYER RH...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILIY OF INSTRUMENT TO LOW INSTRUMENT VISIBILITY AS WELL.
STRATUS PERSISTING UNTIL 15Z IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY CONDITION
CLIMATOLOGY AND...TO SOME EXTENT...MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS FROM TWO
SHORT TERM SIMULATIONS. AS A RESULT...THE TERMINAL FORECAST FOR
NORTH PLATTE INCLUDES INSTRUMENT AND LOW INSTRUMENT CONDITIONS WHILE
THE TERMINAL FORECAST FOR VALENTINE REFLECTS MARGINAL VISIBILITY IN
MIST FOG.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

GARNER/SPRINGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
415 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2008

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-072115-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
415 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2008 /315 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THERE IS A RICH
MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL...AREAS OF FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE
WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILES...MAY DEVELOP EAST OF AN
OGALLALA TO AINSWORTH LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...HOWEVER NO
ORGANIZED SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD.
ALSO SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE...AND WILL
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

MASEK