Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS JSJ

000 
WGCA72 TJSJ 050200
FFSSJU

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1000 PM AST THU SEP 4 2008

PRC001-059-111-050211-
/O.CAN.TJSJ.FF.W.0041.000000T0000Z-080905T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ADJUNTAS PR-GUAYANILLA PR-PENUELAS PR-
1000 PM AST THU SEP 4 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR PENUELAS...
GUAYANILLA AND ADJUNTAS MUNICIPALITIES...

AT 955 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE AFFECTING THESE MUNICIPALITIES EARLIER THIS 
EVENING HAD MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION...U.S.G.S. RIVER 
SENSORS INDICATED THAT THE LEVELS OF RIO GUAYANILLA WERE BELOW FLOOD 
STAGE AND CONTINUED TO FALL SLOWLY. NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OR 
FLASH OR RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD 
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  

LAT...LON 1813 6672 1812 6672 1811 6676 1804 6673
      1799 6673 1798 6677 1802 6675 1804 6677
      1813 6679

$$

BCS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
346 PM AST THU SEP 4 2008

.DISCUSSION...DRIER MORE STABLE CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS ACTIVE WEATHER. ALTHOUGH
SUFFICIENT LLVL MOISTURE WAS PRESENT FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CNVTN
ACROSS PR...SLY WIND FLOW IS NOT TYPICALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE N COAST AT THE PRESENT 15-20 KT
STRENGTH. CONVERGENT BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO ACROSS THE SW CARIB WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND AFFECT W..SW..AND S SECTIONS OF PR
THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIKELY COASTAL PORTIONS OF SW AND W PR
OVERNIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW LLVL MOISTURE SHIFTING WSW
INTO THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SOME WEAK MID LEVEL TROFFING TO THE SW OF IKE. WITH LIGHT WIND
FLOW DURING THIS TIME...SCT CNVTN IS LIKELY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY. IKE IS STILL FORECAST TO
PASS A SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE DISTANCE NORTH FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS
EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AS WAS THE CASE WITH ISABEL
AND FELIX IN 2003...BOTH OF SIMILAR STRENGTH AND TRAJECTORIES...
LITTLE WEATHER WAS SEEN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. SO DIRECT
WEATHER IMPACTS FROM IKE ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...SUCH AS RAIN BANDS OR STRONG WINDS.

STLT IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS THAT IKE MAY BEGINNING ITS
FORECAST MORE WWD MOTION...WITH A WSW MOTION THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS IKE MOVES PAST 70W...RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ITCZ MOISTURE...LLVL TROFFING...AND AN
ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE TRAILING IKE MAY BE DRAWN NW ACROSS THE
NE CARIB AND INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD
INITIATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF WET TROPICAL WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM HANNA
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH
TEMPORARY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN A PASSING +TSRA OR
+SHRA THROUGH 00Z. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...COASTAL SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED SIGNIFICANTLY THE PAST 12-18
HOURS WITH 17-210 KT SLY FLOW AND SEAS FALLING TO NEAR 6 FT ATTM IN
THE MONA PASSAGE. BUOY 41043 HAS BEEN SHOWING A COMBINATION OF
SWELL ENERGY THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH VERY LONG PERIOD NNE SWELL
OF A FEW FEET...MODERATE PERIOD WLY SWELL FROM HANNA...AND SHORT
PERIOD BUILDING WAVES FROM THE SLY WIND FLOW. LONG PERIOD ENE
SWELL FROM IKE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL WATERS BY AROUND
SUNSET AND INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...PEAKING AT 6 TO 7 FEET
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE A CAT 4 HURRICANE APPROACHING THE
LOCAL AREA...THE RECENT LATITUDE AND TRAJECTORY OF IKE IS
PRODUCING LARGE SWELL ENERGY IN A TRAPPED FETCH SCENARIO AIMED AT
THE NE COAST OF THE U.S. AND NOT THE LOCAL AREA. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP GRADUALLY AFTER IKE PASSES TO THE NORTH SUNDAY...WITH SOME
N AND NW SWELL ENERGY...BUT MUCH LESS THAN THE ENE PULSE. MODERATE
BREAKING WAVES OF 6-8 FEET WILL BE SEEN ALONG THE N COASTS OF PR
AND ST CROIX LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND EVEN SMALLER ACROSS
THE ATLC COASTS OF THE NRN USVI DUE TO BLOCKAGE OF SWELL ENERGY BY
THE SHELF WATERS OF THE BVI. THIS WOULD YIELD MINOR BEACH EROSION.
THUS THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT MARINE EVENT FOR THE
LOCAL AREA EITHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  90  79  89 /  30  40  50  50
STT  79  88  79  88 /  40  40  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

99/70/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
638 AM AST THU SEP 4 2008

AMZ710>750-PRZ001>013-051045-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
638 AM AST THU SEP 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

REMNANT MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM TROPICAL STORM HANNA WILL LEAD
TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN TODAY. SOILS ARE
SATURATED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE ISLAND AND MANY RIVERS ARE
RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS WILL
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND A HIGH RISK OF MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AST FOR
THE ENTIRE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO.

LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST TODAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST WHERE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL AT LEAST 11 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME

AMZ720-730-VIZ001-002-051045-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
638 AM AST THU SEP 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...WHERE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH AT
LEAST 11 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME