Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Jackson, MS

Catahoula Parish, LA, Concordia Parish, LA, East Carroll Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Morehouse Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, West Carroll Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Attala County, MS, Bolivar County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Clay County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Leake County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Madison County, MS, Marion County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Warren County, MS, Washington County, MS, Webster County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

000 
WWUS84 KJAN 272309
RFWJAN

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
609 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2008


LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-280015-
/O.EXP.KJAN.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-081027T2300Z/
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
609 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI HAVE BEGUN
DISSIPATING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE EVENING. LIGHT
WINDS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...THE
RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

19

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
423 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2008

.SHORT TERM...BRISK NORTHWEST WIND HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL
USHER A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA...AS EVIDENCED
BY DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS INTO SERN AR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS FROM 25 TO 35KTS AT 925/850MB WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED AT TIMES SO HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS SURFACE DEWPOINTS BASED ON
CONDITIONS JUST UPSTREAM...BRINGING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO
THE MID 20S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND ACROSS
THE REGION AND RH VALUES BELOW 25% CONDITIONS WILL REACH CRITERIA
FOR FORESTRY CONCERNS.

WILL SEE AREAS OF FROST DEVELOP IN OVERNIGHT COOLING OF THE COLD DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE PRIMARY AREAS FOR FROST WILL OCCUR OVER NRN
AND ERN ZONES. SUFFICIENT 925/850MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TO
HAMPER OVERNIGHT COOLING ENOUGH TO LIMIT FROST DEVELOPMENT OVER
OTHER AREAS. FROST COVERAGE WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD TOMORROW NIGHT
WHEN WIND SPEEDS TAPER OFF AS THE HIGH CENTER APPROACHES. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER NRN
AND ERN MS...AND A FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THAT PERIOD AND A MORE EXACT AREA OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES
CAN BE DETERMINED.

WITH CONTINUING COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY MOS IS
ADVERTISING COLDER AFTERNOON HIGHS TOMORROW THAN TODAY. MOS TUESDAY
TEMPS LOOK A BIT TOO COOL CONSIDERING THAT 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION
DECREASES AND THE COLD UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWD OUT OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED MOS NUMBERS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
FOR TUESDAY TO LEAVE THEM AROUND THE SAME AS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE ARKLAMISS REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED.  BY WEDNESDAY THE
SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ARKLAMISS
REGION. THE AREA WILL SIT UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  THE
SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK TO PUT THE AREA UNDER WEAK SELY FLOW.  A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  THIS FRONT SHOULD PRIMARILY BE A DRY
FRONT BRINGING ONLY A WIND SHIFT AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THE
ARKLAMISS REGION.  MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT WITH
PWATS BELOW AN INCH EXPECTED.  SO WITH A RATHER DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED IT LEAVES MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINNING TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARD END OF
THE WORK WEEK THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES.  HAVE REMAINED RATHER CLOSE TO MEX GUI FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WHICH GENERALLY GIVES 40S...WITH
VALUES IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONGER INFLUENCE FROM THE
HIGH EXPECTED...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE LOWER 50S
WHILE THE FRONT IS APPROACHING THE CWFA.  HAVE ALSO REMAINED CLOSE
TO MEX GUI FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  LOWERED HIGHS A LITTLE TO LESSEN THE
DIURNAL DIFFERENCE AND TO BRING HIGHS CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE GUI.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH 60S STILL EXPECTED...BUT
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM INTO THE
70S AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH
THE CWFA.  UPPER 60S CAN ONCE AGAIN BE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND ONCE
THE NEXT FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH THE CWFA. /14/

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOWERED SURFACE DEWPOINTS BASED ON CONDITIONS JUST
UPSTREAM...BRINGING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE MID 20S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS...ALONG WITH NW WINDS THAT WILL GUST
ABOVE 20 MPH AT MANY LOCATIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE ISSUED
AFTER COORDINATION WITH FORESTRY AGENCIES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       60  36  60  33 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      59  34  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     63  37  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   62  36  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       60  36  60  34 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    62  37  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     62  35  60  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

03/14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
556 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
281100-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
556 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 30
TO 35 MPH.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG GRADIENT OF PRESSURE
BETWEEN THE COLD AIR MASS UPSTREAM AND WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY WIND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT. PATCHY
FROST WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES AND NORMALLY COOLER AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE FREEZING MARK AT MANY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. WIDESPREAD FROST
WILL DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

03