Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS Indianapolis, IN

000 
WGUS73 KIND 130021
FFSIND

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
821 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008

INC057-095-159-130115-
/O.CON.KIND.FF.W.0070.000000T0000Z-080713T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HAMILTON-MADISON-TIPTON-
821 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON...MADISON AND SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON COUNTIES...

AT 817 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE 
WARNING AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF STATE ROAD 28. RADAR ESTIMATES OVER 2 
INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS PARTS OF THE WARNED AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SUMMITVILLE...ORESTES...FRANKTON...ELWOOD AND ALEXANDRIA

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

LAT...LON 4039 8557 4015 8558 4005 8558 4005 8559
      4010 8599 4032 8598

$$

50

000 
WGUS73 KIND 130115
FFSIND

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
915 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008

INC057-095-159-130125-
/O.EXP.KIND.FF.W.0070.000000T0000Z-080713T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HAMILTON-MADISON-TIPTON-
915 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON...
MADISON AND SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON COUNTIES...

HEAVY RAIN HAS EXITED THE WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4039 8557 4015 8558 4005 8558 4005 8559
      4010 8599 4032 8598

$$

50

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
531 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS

COMPLEX OF TSRA ACRS IL WILL MOVE E ACROSS TAF SITES THRU 05Z OR SO.
HAVE TRIED TO TIME BEST TIMES FOR TSRA AT THE SITES AND WILL AMEND
AS NECESSARY...ESPECIALLY IF TSRA CONTINUE LONGER THAN EXPECTED AS
SOME MODELS HINT AT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN ATMS COULD PRODUCE IFR OR
LOWER VSBYS IN +RA...AND WIND GUSTS AOA 30KT POSSIBLE IN TSRA. AFTER
PRECIP ENDS SHUD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THRU 10-13Z OR SO. VFR
CONDS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FCST FOCUS ON PRECIP CHCS TONIGHT.

NO MODEL IS HANDLING THE UPSTREAM MO WAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP AS
WELL AS HOPED.  WILL USE SIGNALS OF PRECIP CHCS FROM MET/MAV MOS
TONIGHT ALONG WITH ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS SUCH AS PWS/INSTABILITY
FOR AMOUNTS OF PRECIP. IN A NUTSHELL...COMPLEX SFC PATTERN
HIGHLIGHTED BY A MYRIAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IS LEADING TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. FIRST
GUESS IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD NEAR THE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER
STORMS. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM MO WAVE AND CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST
WITHIN THE 850-300MB FLOW INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE IL
ATMOSPHERE THIS EVENING...THUS IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THERE IS A RISK
FOR CONVECTION ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  EXCESSIVE RAIN POTENTIAL DOES EXIST DUE TO
PWS AROUND 2 INCHES AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WHICH IS FCST TO
PERSIST THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. UPPER DIV WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AHEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY TONIGHT. ANOTHER CONCERN WAS THE WAVE WHICH IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL MONSOON PLUME WHICH WILL RIDE ALONG
THE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LIMITING FACTOR IS
UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF THE 850MB WINDS WHICH ALTHOUGH ARE FCST
TO BACK THIS EVENING ARE STILL WNW IN WAKE OF THE MORNING WAVE.
CURRENT THOUGHTS POINT TOWARD SOUTHERN MO/IL AND SOUTHERN IN FOR
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS EVENING.

AS MENTIONED...FORCING TONIGHT WILL ARISE FROM LIFT AHEAD OF THE
WAVE ACROSS MO ALONG WITH DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE 700-500MB UPPER
TROUGH. HIGH PWS WITHIN SUBTROPICAL PLUME ALONG WITH UPPER DIV AND
EXPECTED INSTABILITY SHOULD PROVIDE THE SETTING FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH ARE EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING HVY RAINS. MET/MAV MOS BOTH SHOW
LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS AND WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FCST AS IS.
SOME SVR RISK ALSO EXISTS AS INCREASING SHEAR INTERACTS WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE MO WAVE THIS
EVENING.

LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES ON NW WINDS.  MOS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FCST MAX
TEMPS AND WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT NUMBERS AS IS.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...CONDS STILL APPEAR DRY FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO TRY AND DROP INTO THE AREA NEXT FRI
OR SAT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...CS
PUBLIC...CO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
355 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-132000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
355 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. THE MORE LIKELY
THREAT TONIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE
AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. BEWARE OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...WITH LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

CO