Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Lincoln, IL

000
WWUS53 KILX 252302
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
601 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

ILC125-252311-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-080425T2315Z/
MASON-
601 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MASON COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

AT 556 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 8 PM. REMAIN 
ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND 
WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 4013 9007 4017 9021 4023 9015 4023 9013
      4026 9012 4044 8992 4044 8973 4032 8971
      4032 8970 4026 8961
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 228DEG 53KT 4052 8958

$$

BARKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
303 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 303 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MAIN SURFACE LOW NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH THE COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.
ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS HAVE BEEN BUBBLING UP THIS AFTERNOON WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BUT THE MOST WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IS MOVES THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
OVER IOWA AND MISSOURI...AND LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION PROJECTS THE FRONT
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 4 PM. THE FRONT IS
THEN EXPECTED TO PROGRESS TO THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR BY 7PM...
THEN EAST INTO INDIANA AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...WITH POSSIBLY
WIND DAMAGE ALONG SMALL-SCALE BOWS/LEWPS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

AFTER A SHORT BREAK ON SATURDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH NOW JUST OFF
THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS OVER THIS AREA BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
WESTERN ILLINOIS AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL
WILL ALSO EXIST FOR ISOLATED THUNDER BASED ON RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS...HOWEVER NO SEVERE IS EXPECTED. POPS
WILL THEN TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH
SCATTERED WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFY JUST TO OUR WEST.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL CHUNK OF
CANADIAN AIR WILL POUR INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. EXPECT LOW IN
THE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A FROST/FREEZE POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TUESDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW COOL EARLY WEEK TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE ANOMOUSLY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH SHOULD
SHOVE MOISTURE QUITE A WAYS SOUTH BACK INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...SO
ANY MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY SLOW
INITIALLY. THE LONGER RANGE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON THE LARGE-SCALE MASS FIELDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE ROCKIES AND INDUCING LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS BY
12Z THU. A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP EAST OF THE DEVELOPING LOW AND
EXTEND EASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF ILLINOIS TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. IT STILL APPEARS THAT PRECIPTABLE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS ILLINOIS UNTIL
AT LEAST THURSDAY...AND MORE LIKELY ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND RAISE THEM
INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

04
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 115 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON. CAPPING
SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING IN
THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...EXPECT SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
FRONT... APPROACHING WESTERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 21-22Z... AND FAR
EASTERN AREAS BETWEEN 00 AND 02Z.

THERE IS SOME RISK OF A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AHEAD OF MAIN SQUALL...AND WILL AMD IF NECESSARY.

SQUALL LINE PASSAGE ITSELF SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF...WITH MAIN
IMPACTS ONLY LASTING ABOUT 1 HOUR OR SO. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY
POST SQUALL STRATIFORM RAIN...BUT MVFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED SCUD AT
LOWER LEVELS WILL LIKELY LAST A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SQUALL LINE
PASSAGE.

RECEIVED REPORT OF WIND SHEAR FROM KPIA A FEW MINUTES AGO...WITH
10KT AIRSPEED DECREASE WITHIN 500 FEET. HAD EARLIER REMOVED LLWS
CONSIDERING SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS AND VAD/PROFILER WINDS HAVING
DECREASED/MIXED DOWN TO 30-35 KTS AT ABOUT 1000 FEET. 18Z RAOB
INDICATES SIMILAR. AMMENDED WITH LLWS UPON RECEIPT OF REPORT...BUT
EXPECT CONTIUED MIXING SHOULD EVEN OUT THE WINDS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT NOTE SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
WITH GUSTS 28-35 KTS POSSIBLE EVEN AWAY FROM STORMS.

HARDIMAN
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
335 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>042-047>051-261100-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-
SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
335 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER ALL OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE BUT CAPPED AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE MAIN
CONCERN IS WITH STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE STORMS
WILL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BETWEEN 4 PM AND 5 PM...AND
APPROACH THE I-55 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 6 PM. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MERGE INTO A SQUALL LINE BEFORE APPROACHING THE I-55
CORRIDOR...BUT THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT DISCRETE CELLS
COULD DEVELOP ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE.

THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT AND BELOW HAVANA WILL REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ILZ043>046-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-261100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-
DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MACON-MOULTRIE-PIATT-
RICHLAND-SHELBY-VERMILION-
335 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER ALL OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO A SQUALL
LINE......WHICH WILL APPROACH THE I-55 CORRIDOR AROUND 6 PM...
THE I-57 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM... AND ONWARDS TOWARDS THE
INDIANA BORDER BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT DISCRETE CELLS COULD DEVELOP ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SQUALL LINE.

THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT AND BELOW HAVANA WILL REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HARDIMAN