Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
332 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...
STILL RECOVERING FROM THE AFFECTS OF IKE. THE OFFICE ITSELF HELD
UP VERY WELL. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE BUILDING WENT
FROM BACKUP TO COMMERCIAL POWER.

THE REMNANTS OF IKE WERE PUSHING INTO SOUTHWESTER ARKANSAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE STORM...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS SE
TX AND BRING SCATTERED TO LIKELY COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS SE TX TODAY AND OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE GFS BUT DID KEEP ISOLATED
POPS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS EARLY MONDAY.

A COMBINATION OF LOW GRIDDED FLASH FLOOD VALUES AND PW/S BETWEEN
2 AND 2.5 INCHES LEADING TOWARD LIKELY RAIN COVERAGE MEANS THAT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAINFALL EXCEEDING THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.
WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRIER. COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL CARRY VCSH/VCTS AT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES (IAH...CLL...CXO...
UTS) THIS MORNING AND AT OUR SOUTHERN TAF SITES (HOU...SGR...
LBX...GLS) THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE DAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH RAINS
COMING TO AN END. 42

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL HAVE A COMBINATION OF CAUTION AND ADVISORY FLAGS FOR OUR
WATERS TODAY AS WAVE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY COME DOWN. AN
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES OFF THE COAST. WILL UPDATE OUR COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE FOR
THE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS THAT ARE SLOWLY COMING DOWN. 42

&&

.CLIMATE...
A LOT OF YESTERDAYS CLIMATE DATA IS INCORRECT OR MISSING. WE WILL
WORK ON FIXING THE INFORMATION DURING THE DAY TODAY. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      90  64  84  58  83 /  40  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              88  67  83  60  83 /  60  30  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  72  82  68  81 /  60  60  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
     TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE/CLIMATE...42