Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1125 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2008

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAFS VFR CONDTIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS SLOWLY BACKING TO BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND BY 00Z. CHANCE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDTIONS
INCREASE AFTER 12Z TOMORROW BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS OF 20-30KTS...LOW STRATUS AND RA/SN AFTER 15Z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY WILL BE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. CURRENT DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE
TEENS TO NEAR 10 DEGREES ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AND MORNING RAOBS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR VALUES TO DROP INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS
ONCE DEEP MIXING COMMENCES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TO LESS THAN
10 PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF NW KANSAS AND SW
NEBRASKA ALONG CO BORDER. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHICH SHOULD HELP ADVECT A
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE EASTERN CWA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
VALUES JUST ABOVE 15 PERCENT...HOWEVER IF MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
SHALLOWER THAN MODELS SUGGEST TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN TD VALUES MAY
FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND REMAIN THERE IN THE AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN CRITICAL RH VALUES. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES AND FUELS WOULD
SUPPORT A RED FLAG WARNING WINDS APPEAR VERY MARGINAL AT THIS POINT.
HARD TO FIND ANY LEVELS WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY SO CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE TO NOT ISSUE A
WARNING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SFC TROUGHS PLACEMENT AND IF
CWA ENDS UP MORE IN THE GRADIENT AND WINDS DO PICK UP...A WARNING
WILL BE NEEDED.

.PREV DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST AS A
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY THE TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE AXIS SHOULD
BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS FOLLOWED BY NORTHERLY FLOW MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. THE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ALLOWING A FRONT AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE GLD AREA EARLY
(12Z) SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE CURRENT 00Z MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE UPPER TROUGH DOWN A FEW HOURS
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN 24 HOURS AGO. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
NOT START UNTIL CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS PROBLEMATIC. THE DRY BIAS NAM NOT SHOWING
ADEQUATE MOISTURE ON BUFKIT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE
SURFACE WHILE THE GFS IS AND IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY ALL SNOW. PLAN TO
KEEP AT LEAST SOME MIX OVER EASTERN ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EVENT SINCE THE NAM IS CASTING SOME DOUBT ON ANY CONFIDENCE THE GFS
PROVIDES. BLOWING SNOW SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM DUE TO THE LACK OF SNOWFALL
AND THAT THE SNOW SHOULD BE WET OR MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN. IN
ADDITION THE SNOW WILL BE SETTLING AND MELTING WITH THE COLDEST MAX
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

RH VALUES LOWER TO CRITICAL VALUES IN RELATION TO RED FLAG CRITERIA
TODAY. OF COURSE FUELS ARE CRITICAL AS WELL BUT WINDS ARE WELL BELOW
CRITERIA. THE ETA/NAM/RUC ALL INDICATE THAT WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER
THE CRITERIA SINCE THE TROUGH AXIS IS ALIGNED DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. CONSEQUENTLY WIND OF 10 TO 15 KTS IS EXPECTED. BASED
ON THIS WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
MONITORED.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REALIZED TODAY AND A COUPLE
OF RECORDS WILL COME CLOSE TO BEING TIED TODAY...AT GOODLAND (77 IN
1967)  AND BURLINGTON (76 IN 1941). MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME ON MONDAY INTO THE MID 40S. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD UP IN THE 30S TONIGHT COOLING TO NORMAL
VALUES IN THE 20S THE REMAINING NIGHTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

JRM/FS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
445 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-021345-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
445 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2008 /545 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA COULD RECEIVE UP TO ONE INCH OF
SNOW WITH AMOUNTS OF ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ELSEWHERE.
ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...ROADS COULD BECOME SLICK
AND VISIBILITIES REDUCED AT TIMES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FS