Red Flag Warning 23, NWS Dodge City, KS

000 
WWUS83 KDDC 050103
RFWDDC

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
803 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2008


KSZ078>081-087>090-050215-
/O.CAN.KDDC.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-080805T0200Z/
FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-PRATT-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
803 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE THIS EVENING...THEREFORE
THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
251 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2008

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TIMING OF COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT PUSHING A COLD FRONT TO NEAR HAYS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LOOK FOR THE HOT TEMPS TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN FROM 100 FAR WEST TO AROUND 105 IN
OUR EASTERN FA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK AS TIGHT AS
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER WINDS WILL PROBABLY STILL BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE OF 15 TO 25 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL AGAIN BE VERY
CLOSE TO RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA ESPECIALLY WHERE DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST FROM DODGE CITY TO NESS CITY AND SOUTH. WITH MARGINAL WINDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR AND JUST ABOVE 15 PERCENT EXPECTED WILL
GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE RED FLAG WARNING. HOWEVER OUTDOOR BURNING IS
STILL DISCOURAGED WITH THE WINDS AND DRY FUELS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SLOWLY SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER TRICKY FOR
TUESDAY DEPENDING WHERE THE FRONT IS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS GRIDS WITH THE FRONT NEAR DODGE CITY BY 3
TO 5 PM. WILL ALSO HOLD ON TO SMALL POPS FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR A TROUGH LINE WITH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY THEN CONTINUE SMALL
POPS INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA. WILL HAVE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE NORTH AS WRF IS HINTING THERE THE BEST. WRF ALSO LOOKS
TO BE OVER FORECASTING QPF COMPARED TO NEARLY DRY GFS.

DAYS 3-7...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON FLOW
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF
THE WEEK, WHILE A FRONT HANGS AROUND SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA.  THE
LOW POPS WE HAVE GOING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK
REASONABLE WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE REGION, SO MADE ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS.  THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ALL BRING A SHORTWAVE OVER THE
RIDGE AND INTO THE PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  WITH THIS,
THE FRONT NEARBY, AND DECENT ENSEMBLE PRECIP PROBABILITIES, WILL
BUMP UP POPS A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN CONTINUING IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE PLAINS ON
SATURDAY.  THIS TREND IS SHORT-LIVED, AS THE ECMWF THEN BUILDS THE
RIDGE BACK INTO THE WEST BY LATE SUNDAY.  ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO
HAVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT SOLUTION AND
KEEP LOW POPS IN.  MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES, KEEPING
READINGS FAIRLY SEASONABLE AND COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.

.AVIATION...

SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME GUSTY AT 15 TO 25 KTS BY
AFTERNOON, THEN TAPER OFF BY EVENING.  A FRONT MOVING IN SHOULD
START TO SHIFT WINDS AROUND SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 105  72  98  70 /   0   0  20  20
GCK 104  70  95  69 /  10  10  20  20
EHA 101  71  96  69 /   0   0  20  20
LBL 102  69  99  69 /   0   0  20  20
HYS 105  73  94  69 /  10  20  20  30
P28 104  75 105  73 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN06/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
305 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2008

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-051000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
305 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2008 /205 AM MDT MON AUG 4 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOOK FOR HOT TEMPERATURES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS FROM 100
TO 105. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. OUTDOOR BURNING
IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED TODAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO FORM
OVER FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WEST OF A WAKEENEY TO GARDEN CITY AND
LIBERAL LINE..NEAR A TROUGH LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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