Storm Warning 5, NWS Buffalo, NY

826 
WHUS71 KBUF 211434
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
934 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008

LOZ042>045-062>065-212245-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0030.081222T0000Z-081222T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
934 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST MONDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST MONDAY. 

WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AND INCREASE SHARPLY TO
GALE FORCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN REMAIN AT GALE
FORCE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-212245-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0030.000000T0000Z-081222T2100Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
934 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY. 

WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AND INCREASE SHARPLY TO
GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN REMAIN AT GALE FORCE INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-212245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SR.W.0005.000000T0000Z-081222T0500Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
934 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. 

SOUTHWEST 35 KNOT GALES WILL INCREASE TO 50 KNOT STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY STORM FORCE WINDS TONIGHT WILL THEN SUBSIDE TO
40 KNOT GALES AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW END GALES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE WINDS FURTHER SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE
SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND
CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS
AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

ZAFF

937 
WHUS71 KBUF 212055
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
355 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008

LOZ042>045-062>065-220500-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0030.081222T0000Z-081222T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
355 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST MONDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST MONDAY. 

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND  REMAIN AT GALE
FORCE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-220500-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0030.000000T0000Z-081222T2100Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
355 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY. 

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-220500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SR.W.0005.000000T0000Z-081222T0500Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
355 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. 

50 KNOT STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...THEN SUBSIDE TO 40
KNOT GALES AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW END GALES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE WINDS FURTHER SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE
SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND
CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS
AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

ZAFF

508 
WHUS71 KBUF 220222
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
922 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008

LEZ040-041-220900-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SR.W.0005.000000T0000Z-081222T0900Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
922 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008

...STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

THE STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY. 

50 KNOT STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN SUBSIDE
TO 40 KNOT GALES. LOW END GALES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF MONDAY BEFORE WINDS FURTHER SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE
SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND
CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS
AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-062>065-221030-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0030.000000T0000Z-081222T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
922 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY. 

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN AT GALE FORCE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-221030-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0030.000000T0000Z-081222T2100Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
922 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY. 

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

458 
WHUS71 KBUF 220915
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
415 AM EST MON DEC 22 2008

LEZ040-041-221715-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SR.W.0005.000000T0000Z-081222T0900Z/
/O.EXA.KBUF.GL.W.0030.000000T0000Z-081222T2100Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
415 AM EST MON DEC 22 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF A VERY DEEP STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY GALES TO 35
KNOTS FOR MUCH OF TODAY. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW GALE FORCE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE OCCURRING.
OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. 

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-062>065-221715-
/O.EXT.KBUF.GL.W.0030.000000T0000Z-081222T2300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
415 AM EST MON DEC 22 2008

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF A VERY DEEP STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY GALES TO 40
KNOTS FOR MUCH OF TODAY. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW GALE
FORCE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. 

&&

$$

LEZ020-221500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.GL.W.0030.000000T0000Z-081222T1500Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
415 AM EST MON DEC 22 2008

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING. 

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF A VERY DEEP STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY GALES TO 35
KNOTS THIS MORNING. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE
COURSE OF TODAY...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW GALE FORCE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS.

&&

$$

RSH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
310 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS ON TAP FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE...BUT STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY THE
AFTERNOON WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK.  TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
0310 AM UPDATE...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT PUBLIC ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WITH THE
EARLY MORNING FORECAST RELEASE. A FULL NEAR TERM SECTION WILL BE
ISSUED A LITTLE LATER ON THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCO FOLLOWS...

ONLY SLIGHT VARIATION IN 00Z MODEL RUNS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS 18Z
AND 12Z RUNS. THE GENERAL INTENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL REMAIN
THE SAME...A STRONG WINTER STORM WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW AT THE ONSET
EARLY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY VERY STRONG WINDS WITH NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF SIMILARLY STRONG LAKE EFFECT. IT WOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO IMPROVE ON THE ALREADY STRONGLY WORDED FORECAST...SO I
WILL LET IT SPEAK FOR ITSELF. THE BULK OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW WILL APPROACH US FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT WITH
ONE CENTER PROGGED TO MOVE TO LAKE ERIE BY SUNDAY MORNING AND
ANOTHER PROGGED TO MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AT THE SAME TIME.
THIS WILL SPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW ACROSS THE REGION STARTING AROUND 3
OR 4 AM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE AND AROUND 7 TO 8 AM
FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES. FOR THE MOST PART WE CAN
EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL TO AVERAGE 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT MORE THAN 8 INCHES FOR THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO COUNTIES INCLUDING OSWEGO...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS. SO WE WILL
BE DEALING WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNINGS.

NOW FOR THE COMPLICATED MESS THAT WILL FOLLOW THE WESTERN CENTER.
STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE AND FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 45 MPH
PROBABLY RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE
CONSIDERABLY BLOWING AND DRIFTING AND VERY POOR VISIBILITIES AND
MAYBE SOME MINOR DAMAGE. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND FROM THE
BUFFALO AND BATAVIA AREAS SOUTHWARD WHERE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRONG WINDS TO CREATE LOCALIZED BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST LAKE
EFFECT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PROBLEMS
IN THE NORTHERN AREAS EVEN WHEN THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT DRIFTS
SOUTH.

WE WILL START THE WHOLE AREA OFF WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR
SNOWFALL BEGINNING AROUND 4 AM EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
COUNTIES WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT 7
AM. THE ADVISORIES WILL LEAD INTO LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS FOR
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES...GENESEE...WYOMING...LIVINGSTON
AND THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES BEGINNING
AROUND 1 PM. WE WILL KEEP THEM UP UNTIL MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THEY WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 1
PM.

IMPACT WISE WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT ROAD CLOSURES MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
SOUTH ROUTES IN THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS. THE WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
STRONG FOR REAL SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS BUT THEY WILL
BE ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE WIND SPEEDS TO PRODUCE A HUGE IMPACT
WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND AREAS OF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AND AND IMPRESSIVE ON
MONDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.  WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE EXTENDED THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE EQUILIBRIUM
LEVEL WILL BE SLOWLY LOWERING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...BUT STILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH...NEAR 8000 FEET...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIFT TO KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE TURNED ON.

ON MONDAY NIGHT THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT OFF OF BOTH LAKES SHOULD
FINALLY DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE OH
VALLEY.  THIS WILL FORCE THE BANDS TO SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTH
AGAIN...BUT THEY WILL BE IN THE END STAGES WITH MINIMAL IMPACT BY
THIS TIME.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WITH A RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE.
WILL KEEP THE REGION CLOUDY HOWEVER AS THE MODELS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE ALOFT QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM CAN CURRENTLY BE FOUND OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
HEADING STRAIGHT FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  EXPECT THIS IT TO DROP
ACROSS THE SIERRAS ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
TUESDAY EVENING.  IT WILL THEN EJECT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND SPREADING A MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ACROSS NY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
OVERALL GOOD CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE EVENT...BUT
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DUE TO MODEL VARIATIONS.

AS FAR AS CHRISTMAS GOES...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PULL
OFF A DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PRIMARILY
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

BIG CHANGES ARE POSSIBLY IN STORE AFTER CHRISTMAS THOUGH WITH A BIG
WARM UP AND POSSIBLE SNOW MELT.  850MB TEMPS ARE ABOVE 5C FOR THE
GEFS MEAN...AND NEAR 10C FOR THE ECMWF AND OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS.
THE LOCATION OF AN UPSTREAM LOW CAN NOT BE PINNED DOWN THIS FAR
OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT IT WILL WELL WEST OF NY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
WEEKEND.  THE CURRENT 12Z GEFS EVEN HAS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...ALWAYS AN EYE CATCHER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY STRONG WINTER STORM EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY.

WEAK WARM ADVECTION EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL BRING MVFR CLOUD
COVER TO THE FORECAST AREA...THEN SNOW WILL START TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10Z IN
THE WEST AND 14Z IN THE EAST. A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL DEVELOP
RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND LOWERED CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10Z IN
THE WEST AND BY 14Z EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE FURTHER TO LIFR BY MIDDAY AND REMAIN LIFR AT ALL SITES
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN INTO MONDAY WITHIN AREAS OF STRONG
LAKE EFFECT. AFTER AN 18Z TO 20Z TIMFRAME...VERY STRONG WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...EVEN OUTSIDE THE AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY FALLING SNOW WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE WEST NORTHWEST ON MONDAY BUT WILL STILL MAINTAIN
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BLOWING
SNOW. STRONG WINDS.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW.
THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A COMPLEX WINTER STORM SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM TIGHTENS AND COLD AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND IT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE...WITH GUSTS TO STORM FORCE BECOMING POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL THEN LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX.

GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS STORM FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE WINTER SOLSTICE IS AT 7:04 AM EST, SUNDAY, DECEMBER 21.

THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR DECEMBER 21 ARE THE LOWEST FOR ANY
DAY IN DECEMBER...ONLY 4.0 INCHES AT BUFFALO, AND 4.5 INCHES AT
ROCHESTER. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT BOTH RECORDS WILL BE
EXCEEDED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ010>013-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NYZ010>013-085.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ001>005-
     014.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR NYZ019>021.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
         MONDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...JJR/SAGE/WCH
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...SAGE/ZAFF
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
715 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

NYZ019>021-212100-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
715 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ010>013-085-212100-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-SOUTHERN ERIE-
715 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>005-014-212100-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-ONTARIO-
715 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006>008-212100-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
715 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-212100-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
715 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ042>045-062>065-212100-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
715 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SLZ022-024-212100-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
715 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF