River Flood Warning 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

000 
WGUS81 KBUF 020730
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
230 AM EST SAT FEB 02 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING CREEKS IN
NEW YORK...


  BUFFALO CREEK NEAR GARDENVILLE


STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...

NYC029-121-020800-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080202T1731Z/
/GDVN6.1.IJ.080202T0540Z.080202T0445Z.080202T0601Z.NO/
230 AM EST SAT FEB 02 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BUFFALO CREEK DOWNSTREAM
FROM GARDENVILLE UNTIL 8AM. AN ICE JAM NEAR THE GARDENVILLE GAGE HAS
BROKEN AND FLOODING IS BEING OBSERVED IN WEST SENECA NEAR INDIAN
CHURCH ROAD AND MINERAL SPRINGS ROAD. THE FLOODING WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFTER THAT. IT WILL
MAINLY AFFECT PROPERTIES ALONG THE CREEK NORTH OF MINERAL SPRINGS
ROAD.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1007 PM EST FRI FEB 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MERGE WITH A DEEPENING LOW
NEAR NEW YORK CITY AND MOVE NORTHEAST OF MAINE BY SATURDAY EVENING.
THE WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THIS EVENING...THEN
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO A
LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY...BUT
POSSIBLY BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ALONG THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE LOW WHICH HAS AFFECTED WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY.
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION TO
ALL SNOW. AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO HAVE SEEN A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
AND WILL HAVE ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. WILL LEAVE THE WINTER
STORM WARNING UP TONIGHT FOR JEFFERSON, LEWIS AND OSWEGO COUNTIES.
FURTHER WEST SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, AND ANY
LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION SHOULD END BY
MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT LAKE SNOW
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY, AND A WEAK LOW MOVING
EAST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING NOTHING MORE
THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL SUNDAY WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES UNDER THE HIGH AT THE SURFACE. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA MONDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS MORE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING MORE MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GIVEN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM...WILL KEEP THIS PORTION
OF THE DISCUSSION BRIEF.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AS A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
GREAT PLAINS...WHILE A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY EVENING...THEN
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE AND TRACKING
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE BULK OF ANYTHING FALLING IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THEREAFTER...PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREAS/CONNECTING FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS INTO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA. AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
REACH WELL INTO THE 40S...IF NOT 50S ON TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW
EVERYTHING TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT...COLDER AIR WRAPPING BACK IN BEHIND THE SECOND LOW SHOULD
CAUSE A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN BACK TO SNOW.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH...WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURNING BY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PROVING US WITH FAIR
WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE PREVAILING UPPER
FLOW KEEPS ANY ARCTIC AIR LOCKED UP FROM HUDSON BAY NORTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE
WILL KEEP PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS A RESULT...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK WILL BE SHROUDED UNDER LOW CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
AREAS OF SNOW SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING THE VISBILITY AT TIMES.

IFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ONLY TEMPORARY
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR POSSIBLE. A GREATER OPPORUNITY FOR HIGH CIGS
WILL COME ON SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION AND HELP CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS.

WHILE IFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT...AREAS OF SNOW WILL ALSO
REDUCE VSBYS TO 3-5SM WITH TIMES WHEN LIFR VSBYS OF A QUARTER TO A
HALF MILE. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LIFR VSBYS WILL GENERALLY BE FOUND
UNTIL ABOUT 06Z.  THE VSBYS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE DURING THE WEE
HOURS OF THE MORNING AND SHOULD BE UNLIMITED DURING SATURDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...THEN THE THREAT OF
PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED AVIATION RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL SHIFT
TO WESTERLY TONIGHT AS TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATE INTO A
SINGLE LOW OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK...BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND.  EXISTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON BOTH
LAKES WILL BE LEFT INTACT UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ON
SATURDAY...AND WINDS AND WAVES HAVE A CHANCE TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ044-045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...APB/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APB/WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...JJR/RSH
MARINE...JJR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
310 PM EST FRI FEB 1 2008

NYZ006>008-022015-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
310 PM EST FRI FEB 1 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-022015-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
310 PM EST FRI FEB 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-022015-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
310 PM EST FRI FEB 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
944 PM EST FRI FEB 1 2008

NYZ002>004-011-013-014-020445-
ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-GENESEE-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...BATAVIA...
GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
944 PM EST FRI FEB 1 2008

...AREAS OF SNOW WILL MAKE FOR SLICK TRAVEL TONIGHT...

SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION
TONIGHT WILL ACCUMULATE A COUPLE OF INCHES IN MOST AREAS. SNOW
COVERED ROADS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT...INCLUDING
SNOW AND ICE CONDITIONS ON THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY FROM BUFFALO
TO SYRACUSE. THE WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT
WHILE THE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTIER. THIS COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE
BLOWING SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES ANTICIPATED.

MOTORISTS SHOULD ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH THEIR DESTINATION
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THOSE TRAVELING ON UNTREATED SECONDARY ROADS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
949 PM EST FRI FEB 1 2008

NYZ001-002-010>012-085-020500-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
949 PM EST FRI FEB 1 2008

...AREAS OF SNOW WILL MAKE FOR SLICK TRAVEL TONIGHT...

SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT WILL ACCUMULATE A
COUPLE OF INCHES IN MOST AREAS. THE SNOW WILL BE THE STEADIEST
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN WILL TAPER OFF
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF...GUSTY WINDS
COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW WHICH WILL REDUCE THE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

SNOW COVERED ROADS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT...
INCLUDING SNOW AND ICE CONDITIONS ON THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY
FROM BUFFALO TO SYRACUSE. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO
REACH THEIR DESTINATION TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THOSE TRAVELING ON
UNTREATED SECONDARY ROADS. ALSO BE SURE TO ALWAYS LEAVE EXTRA
BRAKING DISTANCE BETWEEN YOURSELF AND OTHER VEHICLES.

RSH