Tornado Warning 23, NWS Bismarck, ND

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 052156
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
456 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

NDC031-052215-
/O.CON.KBIS.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-080705T2215Z/
FOSTER ND-
455 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
FOSTER COUNTY...

AT 450 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 12 MILES WEST OF GRACE
CITY...OR 38 MILES SOUTH OF DEVILS LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  GRACE CITY BY 510 PM CDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 4753 9912 4759 9912 4759 9877 4759 9875
      4759 9874 4759 9864 4752 9862
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 256DEG 26KT 4759 9900

$$

LEBLANG

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 052215
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
515 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

NDC031-052224-
/O.EXP.KBIS.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-080705T2215Z/
FOSTER ND-
514 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHERN FOSTER COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 515
PM CDT/415 PM MDT/...

THE TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND NO LONGER
POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY YET DEVELOP
IN FOSTER COUNTY SO BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT SUNDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4753 9912 4759 9912 4759 9877 4759 9875
      4759 9874 4759 9864 4752 9862
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 256DEG 26KT 4762 9880

$$

RSL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
210 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
A CLASSIC ACTIVE EARLY JULY UPPER AIR PATTERN IS IN PLACE.
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 60 AND ABOVE ARE EITHER IN THE STATE OR
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE RAPIDLY ADVECTED IN. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND EVERY PASSING SHORT WAVE HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. OUR FIRST ROUND WILL BE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON ALMOST EVERY DAY AS
WEAK SHORT WAVES KEEP PEELING OFF THE ROCKIES.

I EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SEASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM TODAY.
WEDNESDAY THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA WHICH FLATTENS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LONGWAVE
TROUGH. BY FRIDAY THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOWS SHORTWAVES
TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. TIMING IS VERY SUSPECT AT THIS TIME AND
WENT WITH CONSENSUS OF KEEPING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OR NOT MENTIONING
PRECIP AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY WITH CAPPING AND TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BE
THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. AND 80 TO 90 FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS THE FOCUS
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...LIKELY AFTER 20Z OR 3PM. ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH IS CAPPED AND NEEDS SURFACE TROUGH AND/OR UPPER DISTURBANCE
TO GET STORMS STARTED. BEHIND THIS TROUGH THERE IS ANOTHER LINE OF
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE.
THIS LINE WILL DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND REACH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WESTERN TAF SITES...AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING CENTRAL AND EASTERN
TAF SITES. STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

RL/JV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
451 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-061000-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
451 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 /351 AM MDT SAT JUL 5 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY WITH HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY EVENING AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL TAPER OFF AND EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST...THEN
MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT. IF YOU RECEIVE OR OBSERVE ANY SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE
CONTACT THE BISMARCK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

KS