Small Craft Advisory 21, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000
FZAK51 PAFG 071014
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
214 AM AKDT MON JUL 7 2008

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-080300-
214 AM AKDT MON JUL 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN BEAUFORT SEA TO THE
CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO THROUGH WED. A WEATHER FRONT IN EASTERN SIBERIA WILL
MOVE EAST TO LIE ALONG THE DATELINE BY MON PM AND INTO THE
EASTERN CHUKCHI SEA TUE.

$$

PKZ225-080300-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
214 AM AKDT MON JUL 7 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. FOG. VSBY
1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-080300-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
214 AM AKDT MON JUL 7 2008

.TODAY...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR
LESS. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-080300-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
214 AM AKDT MON JUL 7 2008

.TODAY...SE WINDS 20 KT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. FOG. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-080300-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
214 AM AKDT MON JUL 7 2008

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-080300-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
214 AM AKDT MON JUL 7 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

BITR/KS/MKK JUL 08

000
FZAK51 PAFG 072123
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
123 PM AKDT MON JUL 7 2008

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-081430-
123 PM AKDT MON JUL 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
WED. A WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA WILL MOVE TO TO
THE EASTERN CHUKCHI SEA TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ225-081430-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
123 PM AKDT MON JUL 7 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. FOG.
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-081430-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
123 PM AKDT MON JUL 7 2008

....SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
    TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. FOG.
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-081430-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
123 PM AKDT MON JUL 7 2008

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 20 KT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT BECOMING N. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-081430-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
123 PM AKDT MON JUL 7 2008

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FOG. VSBY
1 NM OR LESS. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FOG. VSBY
1 NM OR LESS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FOG.
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
FOG.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FOG.
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-081430-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
123 PM AKDT MON JUL 7 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

JUL 08

000
FZAK51 PAFG 081058
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
258 AM AKDT TUE JUL 8 2008

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-090245-
258 AM AKDT TUE JUL 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL RETREAT TO THE
CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO THROUGH WED. A WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN
CHUKCHI SEA WILL MOVE TO TO THE EASTERN CHUKCHI SEA TUE NIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH THU PM.

$$

PKZ225-090245-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
258 AM AKDT TUE JUL 8 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-090245-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
258 AM AKDT TUE JUL 8 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT 
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT.
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-090245-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
258 AM AKDT TUE JUL 8 2008

.TODAY...SE WINDS 20 KT.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-090245-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
258 AM AKDT TUE JUL 8 2008

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-090245-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
258 AM AKDT TUE JUL 8 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

BITR/MKK/KS JUL 08

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
431 AM AKDT SUN JUL 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE...WITH
SEASONABLE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES. A WEAK AND
NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM FAREWELL TO FAIRBANKS TO OLD
CROW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN WEAKEN GRADUALLY
WITH A RESIDUAL UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UPPER
YUKON VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD NORTHERN
ALASKA TUE THROUGH THUR..PERSISTING INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND.

SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF NORTHWAY
WESTWARD...WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TUE...
TO LIE EAST-WEST ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE BY TUE AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION WAS FAIRLY ACTIVE NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE SUN...
AND TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE AND IN THE NEARBY INTERIOR ZONES. SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS RAOB AT FAIRBANKS SHOWED THE AIRMASS TOO DRY
FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN ZONE 222. ADDITIONALLY
THERE WAS A SUBSIDENCE CAP BETWEEN 750 AND 770 MB.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AT FAIRBANKS WAS ONLY 0.47 INCH SUN
AFTERNOON...BOTH GFS AND NAM PROGGING ABOUT 0.75 INCH
OF WATER IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA THIS AFTERNOON...RISING TO
AROUND 1.1 INCHES MON AFTERNOON.

MODELS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR
ZONES NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY. MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR ZONES
NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE MON. GOES WATER VAPOR LOOP IS
SHOWING MOISTURE HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED OVER THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF ZONE 224...AND IS ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF ZONE 222. WINDOW OB SHOWS BUBBLY ALTOCU HAVE
SPREAD INTO THE AREA...SO LOOKING FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY. 12Z FAIRBANKS RAOB SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...BUT WITH A CAP BETWEEN 700-710 MB. HOWEVER...
A FURTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS RISING TO
48-50 DEGREES WOULD IN FREE CONVECTION.

FOR MONDAY...THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN IN ZONES 221-222-223-224 AND PARTS OF ZONE
220 WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS ARE THE HIGHEST.

OVER THE ARCTIC...STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE NEMESIS ON ZONES 201-202...STRATUS MAY BURN OFF
OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THESE ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT RETURN AT NIGHT. DENSE FOG HEADLINES
FOR ZONES 201-202 THROUGH NOON TODAY. WILL ADD A
DENSE FOG HIGHLIGHT FOR ZONE 207...AS GOES VIS LOOP
SHOWS STRATUS EXTENDING FROM POINT HOPE SOUTHWARD
TO THE COAST WEST OF CAPE ESPENBERG...AND SOME AREAS
LIKELY TO HAVE NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. VIS LOOP ALSO
SHOWING LOW STRATUS NEAR THE BERING STRAIT...WITH SOME
STRATUS LEAKING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN BERING.
OTHERWISE...FINE SUMMER WEATHER FOR WEST COAST AREAS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOWEST MIN RH VALUES...BELOW 30%...WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR TODAY. WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR...WHERE MIN RH THIS AFTERNOON IS
LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN SUN....PROBABLY NEAR BUT
ABOVE 30%. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR
TODAY OR MON...AND THUS NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE...BUT AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES...THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO INCREASE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ245.

&&

RF JUL 08