Storm Warning 86, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 141146
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM ADT FRI MAR 14 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-150200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 974 MB LOW NEAR 49N 179W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 53N 165W AT 980 MB SAT
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA SATURDAY
NIGHT.
$$

PKZ411-150200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM ADT FRI MAR 14 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
24 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-150200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM ADT FRI MAR 14 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-150200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM ADT FRI MAR 14 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS NORTH OF 55N. RAIN AND 
SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-150200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM ADT FRI MAR 14 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 150000
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM ADT FRI MAR 14 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-151400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 977 MB LOW NEAR 49N 175W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 54N 170W AT 980 MB SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS STORM WILL MOVE TO 54N 159W SUN AFTERNOON WITH A 985
MB CENTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

$$

PKZ411-151400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM ADT FRI MAR 14 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-151400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM ADT FRI MAR 14 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-151400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM ADT FRI MAR 14 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-151400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM ADT FRI MAR 14 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
130 PM ADT THU MAR 13 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS/ECMWF MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND FORECASTS
ARE REASONABLE AND SIMILAR THROUGH SUN NIGHT. DIFFERENCES CREEP IN
BEYOND THIS POINT...BUT 12Z GFS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO 00Z RUN. SO ALL
SAID...WILL BLEND CURRENT GRIDS WITH 12Z GFS. THE FINAL RESULT BEING
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL MAINLAND THIS MORNING MOVES
INTO CANADA FRI. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA/WESTERN ALASKA TONIGHT AND MOVES OVER THE GULF AND CENTRAL
MAINLAND FRI NIGHT. THE RIDGE CONTINUES EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE PRIMARY LOW CENTER SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS DEVELOPS AND
MOVES TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SAT. STRONG SW JET SETS UP OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC WELL SOUTH OF THE AK PEN AND PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA SAT AS THIS LOW CENTER PROGRESSES EAST SAT. SW JET AXIS PUSHES
SOUTH AND EAST SUN/MON AS LOW CENTER NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SAT
MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA MON AND WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS BETWEEN 170E-180W BY MON NIGHT AND EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC TO OVER THE BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...OFF SHORE FLOW WITH DRYING IS FINALLY SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THIS HAS BROUGHT LONG AWAITED CLEARING SKIES.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND NORTH GULF
TONIGHT WITH TROUGH OVER THE GULF. THAT COMBINED WITH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE GUSTY GAP/DRAINAGE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FRI AFTERNOON.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF FRI AFTERNOON WITH
RAIN AND SNOW TO THE WESTERN GULF FRI NIGHT. A TRIPLE POINT WILL
LIKELY FORM NEAR KODIAK SAT MORNING. STRONG SW FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT
LIKELY TO CARRY THIS CENTER TO THE EASTERN GULF SUN MORNING. PRESSURE
GRADIENT LIKELY TO BUILD OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL
TROUGH SAT...SO SHOULD SEE STRONG GAP WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
TURNAGAIN ARM AND PORTAGE VALLEY.

.WEST...
MAIN LOW CENTER SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS MOVES TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
FRI NIGHT. CENTER BECOMES STACKED WITH UPPER CENTER AND WEAKENS AS IT
EVENTUALLY ENDS UP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA MON. ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT MOVES TO THE PRIBILOFS AND WESTERN AK PEN FRI AFTERNOON. FRONT
CONTINUES EAST PROGRESSION TO ALONG THE SW COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND
EARLY SAT. FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR SAT. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS OVER THE PRIBILOFS STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR BY 6PM
TODAY...IF NOT A LITTLE EARLIER. WILL LET BLIZZARD RUN INTO FRI...BUT
WILL HAVE TO REEVALUATE AS TEMPS MAY GET A LITTLE TOO WARM. BLIZZARD
WATCH FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL.
TEMPS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ARE ABOVE FREEZING. MODELS
STILL SHOWING WEAK COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH
TONIGHT. NEXT CONCERN AREA WOULD BE BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS ALONG THE
NORTH COAST OF BRISTOL BAY AND COASTAL SW AK WITH APPROACH FRONTAL
FRONT FRI NIGHT. STRATUS OVER SW ALASKA WILL HOLD THROUGH TONIGHT AND
START TO BREAK UP FRI WITH MIXING AHEAD OF BERING SEA FRONT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195. BLIZZARD WATCH 191
MARINE...STORM 176. GALES: 132 150 155 165 170 171 172 179 AND 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAR 08