Storm Warning 77, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 211228
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST THU FEB 21 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-220300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 972 MB LOW 85 NM EAST OF KODIAK WILL WEAKEN TO 980 MB AS IT MOVES
OVER THE NORTH END OF KODIAK ISLAND THU AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. 

$$

PKZ120-220300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST THU FEB 21 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 35 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-220300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST THU FEB 21 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-220300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST THU FEB 21 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-220300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST THU FEB 21 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-220300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST THU FEB 21 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-220300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST THU FEB 21 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
14 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-220300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST THU FEB 21 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-220300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST THU FEB 21 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-220300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST THU FEB 21 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 
2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1235 PM AST WED FEB 20 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE LAST IN A STEADY PROGRESSION OF
LOWS OVER THE PAST WEEK IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF...FOLLOWING ALMOST THE SAME EXACT TRACK AS THE LOW FROM
YESTERDAY. THE BIG DIFFERENCE IS THIS LOW HAS BOTTOMED OUT
YESTERDAY AROUND 960 MB AND HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH A
CURRENT CENTRAL PRESSURE AROUND 970 MB. IT IS ALSO MOVING FAIRLY
SLOW SO THAT THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS IS HAPPENING MUCH SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY. WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOOSENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW (WHICH IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA COAST) AND THE NEW GULF
LOW. TAMDAR DATA INDICATES LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL PRESENT
FROM ANCHORAGE TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
WHILE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OFF THE GROUND REMAIN QUITE
STRONG. THE OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS MORNING IS A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN COLD
BAY AND DUTCH HARBOR. A WEAK CIRCULATION IS ALSO VISIBLE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY JUST SOUTH OF UNIMAK PASS. SNOW..HEAVY AT TIMES IS BEING
OBSERVED IN DUTCH HARBOR WHILE LIGHT SNOW IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA. ANOTHER VERY SHORT-WAVELENGTH TROUGH
IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN BERING. MODERATE
COLD ADVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THIS AND RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH ALL OF THE FEATURES
MENTIONED ABOVE AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMTN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS
WITH TRACK OF LOW APPROACHING WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY...SO WILL
CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHERN MAINLAND...THE EAST-WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
TO SLACKEN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE A STORM WARNING IS
IN EFFECT. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO PUSH INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE AND WEAKENS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVER LAND ARE EXPECTED FROM CORDOVA TO PORTAGE VALLEY AND EASTERN
TURNAGAIN ARM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING
LEVELS. WESTERN TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AS
THE LOW CENTER REACHES THE BARREN ISLANDS AREA JUST NORTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE EAST-WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT PICKS UP ONCE AGAIN.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A DECENT SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN WINDS.
THE LOW WILL STALL IN THE BARREN ISLANDS REGION THURSDAY DUE TO
BUILDING RIDGE OUT WEST. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH
FRIDAY...SO WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD. PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAYS STORM WITH MOST OF
PRECIPITATION FALLING IN UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE FORM OF RAIN. SOME
RAIN AND SNOW WILL ALSO BACK INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA...MAINLY ACROSS
BRISTOL BAY. COLD ADVECTION AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD FRIDAY. EXPECT
REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA...THE LOW/SHORT-WAVE BETWEEN
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THIS
EVENING...SO THE INTENSE SNOW BEING OBSERVED IN DUTCH HARBOR WILL
COME TO AN END. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE IN...SO LOW VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.
COLD ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THURSDAY AND HANG IN OVER
EASTERN AREAS FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
AND BRINGS CALMER WEATHER. A PACIFIC STORM WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS FRIDAY BRINGING GALE TO STORM FORCE SOUTHEASTERLIES TO
THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE BERING SEA UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE CUT OFF AT ITS BASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND RETREAT UP TO
THE CHUKCHI SEA WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE MAINLAND DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL SET UP
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL. STORMINESS WILL BE HELD TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO KODIAK ISLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 120.
         GALE WARNING 125 130 140 170 172.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 165 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB FEB 08