Storm Warning 52, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 051259
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST TUE FEB 5 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-060300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A LARGE 960 MB LOW CENTERED 240 NM SOUTH OF AMCHITKA WILL WEAKEN TO
975 MB 90 NM EAST OF ATKA TUE NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE 75 NM SOUTH OF
SAND POINT WED NIGHT. A WEAK LOW LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR ADAK TUE NIGHT
THEN MOVE TO NEAR SEGUAM ISLAND AT 990 MB BY THU MORNING. 
$$

PKZ150-060300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST TUE FEB 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS TO 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-060300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST TUE FEB 5 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E WIND 25 KT IN THE
MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-060300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST TUE FEB 5 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-060300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST TUE FEB 5 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-060300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST TUE FEB 5 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 25 KT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT.

$$

PKZ170-060300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST TUE FEB 5 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT EXCEPT SE 25 KT ON THE PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS 20
FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT EXCEPT S WIND 20 KT ON THE PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS 22
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-060300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST TUE FEB 5 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-060300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST TUE FEB 5 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT ON THE PACIFIC SIDE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE WIND 15 KT ON THE PACIFIC
SIDE. SEAS TO 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT ON THE BERING SIDE. W WIND 25 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS
TO 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-060300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST TUE FEB 5 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-060300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST TUE FEB 5 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-060300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST TUE FEB 5 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-060300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST TUE FEB 5 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AST MON FEB 4 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS FROM THE 12Z RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THE PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS WERE QUITE DIFFERENT FROM THE OTHER MODELS
BUT THIS HAS COME IN LINE ON THE 12Z RUN. GFS IS THE MAIN GUIDANCE
FOR THE DAY AND HAS BEEN STABLE AS OF LATE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...SURFACE PATTERN IS RATHER
STRAIGHTFORWARD TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR AND A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA
THAT BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS LAST NIGHT
IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. A LARGE LOW
SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE JUST SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVELS ARE A LITTLE MORE COMPLEX WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
SHORT TERM FEATURE BEING A SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA AND THE NORTH GULF COAST OVERNIGHT. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT
WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE YUKON TERRITORIES.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH MOST OF THE ACTION
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IN THE JET STREAM. THE JET IS WELL
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AROUND 40N AND REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW SOUTH OF SHEMYA FROM PUSHING
INTO THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE. ITS TREK NORTHWARD WILL END
ALONG THE ALEUTIANS WHERE IT WILL ELONGATE AND FINALLY DISSIPATE IN
THE ABSENCE OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ZONE 131
AND  135 WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD AIR IS
IN PLACE AS WELL AS THE TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. EVEN AFTER THE SHORT WAVE PASSES
THROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA WHILE WEAKENING IS STILL BRINGING WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. THE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN
BLOWING SNOW WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH
AND THE LOW DISSIPATES OVERNIGHT.
ALEUTIANS WILL SEE INCREASING WINDS AND SOME SNOW TONIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM ENOUGH TO PUSH RAIN INTO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WITH THIS SYSTEM BEFORE MORE COLD AIR FILTERS IN AS THE LOW
ELONGATES.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IS THE PATTERN AND THE
JET STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THEREFORE THERE WILL
NOT BE LARGE CHANGES IN THE WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE
IN THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 131 135.
MARINE...GALE 121 129 130 132 155 160 165 171 176 179 185.
         STORM 170 172 175.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 120-141 160 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 08