Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 070339
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
838 PM MST FRI JUL 6 2007

AZC019-070430-
/X.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070707T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PIMA AZ-
838 PM MST FRI JUL 6 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM MST FOR NORTH
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

AT 833 PM MST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A 
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WESTERN TOHONO OODHAM 
NATION. AREA WASHES ARE CURRENTLY FLOWING AND SWIFT WATER RESCUES 
HAVE ALREADY TAKEN PLACE.  IN ADDITION...LOW LYING AREAS ALONG 
HIGHWAY 86 ARE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE THE HICKIWAN WASH AND SAN SIMON 
WASH IN THE WESTERN TOHONO OODHAM NATION. 

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED 
AREA.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3219 11265 3215 11230 3252 11227 3252 11261

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
GL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST FRI JUL 6 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW LIMITED MONSOON MOISTURE TO FEED INTO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO MIGRATE INTO
CENTRAL ARIZONA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL TEND TO CONFINE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL IT MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS IS A GREAT EXAMPLE OF HOW WE CAN UNDENIABLY BE IN
THE MONSOON FLOW REGIME...YET NOT HAVE THE OFT-QUOTED MONSOON
SURFACE DEWPOINT CRITERIA MET. STRONG UPPER HIGH NEAR KLAS IS
KEEPING US IN A FAVORABLE NE FLOW ALOFT RIGHT OFF THE RIM. ANOTHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE TOOK PLACE UP THE GULF OF CA THIS
MORNING...BUT IT DID NOT LAST VERY LONG AND TRANSPORTED ONLY LIMITED
MOISTURE INTO S AZ. IT HAS SINCE MIXED OUT...ALTHOUGH IT HAS LEFT
SURFACE DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...PRECIP WATER LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING
MAINLY AT MID LEVELS...WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PUSHING W FROM NM. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WE ARE GETTING A SOMEWHAT
EARLIER START AND WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER AREAL COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL STILL NOT BE GREAT SINCE MOUNTAIN CAPE WILL
PROBABLY BE NO BETTER THAN 1000 J/KG WHILE VALLEY DOWNDRAFT CAPES
CLIMB AS HIGH AS 1200-1300 J/KG. THUS...ISOLATED MICROBURSTS...
BLOWING DUST...AND MULTIPLE 30-40KT OUTFLOWS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED ONE DUST
STORM WARNING FOR THE UPPER GILA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SPC SWOMCD
DISCUSSION ISSUED EARLIER HITS THE SITUATION RIGHT ON THE HEAD.
INHERITED LOW-MID GRADE POPS WILL WORK NICELY THIS EVENING...BUT
WILL ADD HEIGHTENED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND BLDU GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS.

WE MAY SEE ANOTHER SLIGHT UPTICK ON SAT...DEPENDING AGAIN ON WHAT
HAPPENS TO OUR S TONIGHT...BUT BY SUN THE UPPER HIGH IS GOING TO
MIGRATE INTO C AZ AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE S PLAINS
WEAKENS. MODELS SHOW 500MB TEMPS WARMING TO -5C WITH 700-500MB FLOW
BECOMING VERY WEAK OR NW. SO EVEN IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
SEEP INTO US /OR SURGE IF CONVECTION REALLY GETS GOING OVER THE
SIERRA MADRES THIS WEEKEND/ AND DEWPOINTS SOMEHOW REACH THE MAGIC
MONSOON LEVEL...WE MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO GET ANYTHING OTHER THAN
MOUNTAIN TSTMS GOING. PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAD ALREADY BUILT THIS
DOWNTICK INTO THE FORECAST...WHICH WE WILL ACCENTUATE A BIT MORE IN
THIS PACKAGE. WENT TO CLIMO POPS BY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH MEANDERS
NORTH AND SETS UP EITHER E OR NE FLOW WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT.

TEMP-WISE...MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES...ALTHOUGH BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS
AND RECENT BOIVERIFY DATA SHOWS A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN LOWS
WAS IN ORDER.

THANKS TO DMAFB 355TH CWT AND SPC FOR COORDS TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND PRODUCE BLOWING
DUST AT MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS. NIGHT TIME HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL
REMAIN MODERATE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE AIRMASS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA MOISTENS. AT THE START OF THE WEEK THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA DECREASING THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO POOR NIGHTTIME HUMIDITY RECOVERIES.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SCT-BKN120CB
WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40KTS AND LOCALLY BLOWING DUST WITH VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 MILE. DURING LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EXPECT BKN250
WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY/S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AND TWEB AMENDMENTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY AT TUCSON INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT HAS BEEN 87. UNLESS OUTFLOWS OR A TSTM COOLS US OFF...WE
WILL TIE THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR JULY 6 /87 IN 1925/.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...PYTLAK
FIREWX/AVIATION...EVANS

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1031 AM MST FRI JUL 6 2007

AZZ019-029-030-033>035-070700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1031 AM MST FRI JUL 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE EAST WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE INTO
THE VALLEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY ARE PUSHED BY NORTHEAST
WINDS ALOFT. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY...WILL BE LIGHTNING...ISOLATED MICROBURST WIND GUSTS OF
UP TO 60 MPH AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND ISOLATED VALLEY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE REMAINS WEAK ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ031-032-070700-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
1031 AM MST FRI JUL 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN DESERTS
MEANS THAT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING
DUST AS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS PUSH WEST FROM SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE LATE EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS CONTINUES TO BE GUSTY
WINDS AND BLOWING DUST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.