Flash Flood Warning 103, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
805 AM CDT MON SEP 10 2007

.UPDATE...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN MOVED INTO OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
WHILE THE RAINFALL EXPANDED IN COVERAGE... HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUED OVER
THE SAME AREA WEST OF HOMINY FOR OVER 5 HOURS... PRODUCING AN
ESTIMATED 8 TO 10 INCH BULLSEYE. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING TO INCREASE POPS AND QPF IN THE NORTHWEST. PRODUCTS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT MON SEP 10 2007/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING IN A LARGE AREA
OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG THE 305K LAYER. THIS ASCENT IS BEING
FURTHER ENHANCED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. NOT TO MENTION THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY NEAR A KSGF-KSWO-KCSM LINE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A 500 MB
TROF CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DRIVES TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. WILL KEEP CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT. WILL FAVOR THE GFS
SOLUTION OF MOVING THE 500 MB TROF THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
UKMET/CANADIAN AND ECMWF IN HANDLING THIS FEATURE. THEREFORE...I
WILL CUT OFF PRECIP LATE TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...I WOULD
TEND TO FAVOR THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF BRINGING
THE FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE
FASTER AND IS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LIKELY HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS
THIS IS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
ON FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  60  77  56 /  60  20  10  10
FSM   86  66  82  59 /  70  30  10  10
MLC   83  64  80  57 /  60  30  10  10
BVO   79  56  78  49 /  90  20  10  10
FYV   82  60  76  50 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   82  58  75  52 /  30  20  10  10
MKO   82  60  77  56 /  50  30  10  10
MIO   81  55  77  53 /  40  20  10  10
F10   80  61  77  56 /  60  30  10  10
HHW   86  68  82  61 /  70  50  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
802 AM CDT MON SEP 10 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
758 AM CDT MON SEP 10 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
        RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
        ONSET...LATE THIS MORNING...ENDING THIS EVENING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
        AREA...PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
        AREA...PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF OSAGE ANDPAWNEE COUNTIES THIS MORNING. FOUR TO SIX
INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THAT AREA...EARLIER THIS
MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED.

LATER TODAY...THERE IS A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44. A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...PROVIDING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL
BE MARGINAL...WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 800 AND 1500...BUT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE SEVERE
SIZED HAIL ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. WIND SHEAR
SHOULD BE WEAK...SO SUPERCELLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM FAYETTEVILLE TO MCALESTER. THE LIMITED RISK WILL
END THIS EVENING AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED...AS ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE
QUITE ISOLATED AND UNORGANIZED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.