Flash Flood Warning 80, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 301538
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1036 AM CDT MON JUL 30 2007

KSC003-301546-
ANDERSON-
1036 AM CDT MON JUL 30 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1045 AM CDT FOR NORTHERN
ANDERSON COUNTY...

AT 1036 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE
VERY HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA 
TODAY.  WITH GROUND SATURATED FROM THIS MORNINGS RAINFALL...BE ALERT 
TO LOCAL MEDIA IN THE EVENT ADDITIONAL FLOOD WARNINGS BECOME 
NECESSARY.

LAT...LON 3838 9550 3825 9550 3818 9533 3813 9508
      3839 9506

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
327 AM CDT MON JUL 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...

ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS KEPT THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. A DEPARTING MCV WAS NOTED
OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI WHILE UPSTREAM PROFILERS AND WATER VAPOR
IDENTIFY A SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS MONTANA. SURFACE TROUGH WAS OVER
WESTERN KANSAS WITH A LOW CENTERED IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER. PWS
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS THE AREAS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA
RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. THETA-E AXIS LINES UP ACROSS CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS MORNING AND BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING. THIS
AFTERNOON THE SHORTWAVES WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS ALSO REGION WILL BE IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...THUS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THE NEBRASKA BORDER FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECT HAVE LOWERED HIGHS IN
THE EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES TO NEAR 80.

TONIGHT...MAIN FOCUS WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
THETA AXIS AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG WITH A 20 TO 30
KT LLJ LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND AREAS WILL STILL
BE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET.

THE MID LEVEL FEATURE MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES LITTLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH FOCUS AGAIN ON CENTRAL KANSAS FOR BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION.
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST THUS
CONTINUED LOWER POPS ALONG THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. NO
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.

53

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO PERSIST
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE. WITHIN THIS AND ADDITIONAL ANTICIPATED CONVECTION THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...CEILINGS WILL BE OVERCAST WITHIN 3000FT AGL WITH
SCT DECKS BLW 1000FT. VISIBILITY WILL BE LOWERED TO UNDER 3 MILES IN
THE MOST ROBUST ACTIVITY. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...BROKEN DECK OF
STRATUS HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED BETWEEN 4
TO 6 MILES. EXPECT RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH TIME. FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS...REFER TO SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION SECTION.

BLAIR

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
509 AM CDT MON JUL 30 2007

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-311015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
509 AM CDT MON JUL 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.