Flash Flood Warning 76, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 212246
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
543 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007

KSC161-220015-
RILEY-
543 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR 
SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL RILEY COUNTY...

AT 541 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM KEATS TO THE 
NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF MANHATTAN AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST SIDE 
OF TUTTLE CREEK LAKE.  RADAR ESTIMATED TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN 
HAD FALLEN IN THE AREA NEAR KEATS SINCE 445 PM CDT.  

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST 615 PM 
IN THE VICINITY OF MANHATTAN.  

RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND 
STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY ROADS AND FARMLANDS 
ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT
TO FLASH FLOODING.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3910 9683 3912 9650 3939 9669 3928 9686

$$

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 212321
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
616 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007

KSC161-220015-
RILEY-
616 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL RILEY COUNTY...

AT 615 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN ON THE WEST SIDE 
OF MANHATTAN...SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE MANHATTAN AIRPORT.  THESE STORMS 
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH 645 PM BUT RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS 
AND EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL CAUSE FLOODING IN THE 
VICINITY OF FAR WESTERN MANHATTAN.

RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND 
STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY ROADS AND FARMLANDS 
ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT
TO FLASH FLOODING.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3910 9678 3912 9650 3928 9661 3927 9678

$$

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 212350
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
648 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007

KSC161-212358-
RILEY-
648 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR RILEY COUNTY...

AT 648 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE 
VERY HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER RILEY COUNTY.  NO RECENT REPORTS OF 
HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLASH FLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.  THUS...THE 
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE COUNTY.  

RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED WEST AND 
NORTHWEST OF MANHATTAN...BUT FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 3910 9678 3912 9650 3928 9661 3927 9678

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
350 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CUMULUS
FIELD OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.  WEAK YET PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEMS RESPONSIBLE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN THE 1.6 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ISOLATED VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHERE CONVECTION IS MOST PERSISTENT.  CONVECTIVE
ROLL CLOUDS ARE NOT AS WELL DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY WERE
YESTERDAY...AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE APPEARED LESS VIGOROUS THUS
FAR...BUT CONVECTIVE ROLL CLOUDS ARE PRESENT AT FORECAST TIME AS
WELL AS SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...SO THE THREAT OF VERY ISOLATED
FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET.  AIR TO THE EAST OF
THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN MUCH COOLER THIS AFTERNOON...PARTIALLY DUE TO
PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST WISE LOOKING AT TONIGHT THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS OVERNIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN THE H850 FLOW IS
FORECAST TO VEER PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY PROVIDING ISENTROPIC
LIFT INTO A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
FEW COUNTIES OF THE CWA.  WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THIS TO FALL AS RAIN
SHOWERS IF IT MANAGES TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...SO HAVE PLACED SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  IF RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS WOULD EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THE MODELS
ACTUALLY BEGIN TO PIVOT THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  ASSUMING THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH
AND EAST SOMEWHAT TOMORROW THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD LIE ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S IN NORTH CENTRAL KS...BUT RAISED HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.  GFS/NAM
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED UP IN THIS WARMER
SECTOR...SO AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SET OFF BY ANY WEAK CONVERGENCE
REMAIN POSSIBLE.  THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE RIDGE BRINGS
THE WAVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...SO WOULD EXPECT
COVERAGE TO REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITHOUT ANY LARGE SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM IN PLACE.
UNDERNEATH THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS...FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARLY UNCHANGED...SO THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  A SLOWER
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE COULD KEEP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
PLACE...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY.  THIS WOULD HAVE
AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART AS HIGHS EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SEEMS TO HANDLE THE ISOLATED NATURE
OF EITHER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WELL EVEN IF THE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MON/TUES...SLIGHTLY MORE MODEL CONSENSUS TODAY ABOUT BRINGING A
FEATURE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FLOW LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WILL
ADD SOME CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD CONSIDERING
WEAK CAP AND GOOD INSTABILITY CONTINUES...WITH SOME ADDED SHEAR
FROM INCREASED GRADIENT ALOFT.

WED-FRI...OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BRING UPPER LOW INTO OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN DROPS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY INTO
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF INTO SATURDAY BRINGING A FRONT INTO THE
CENTRAL STATES SATURDAY. WITH SEVERAL ENSEMBLES STILL CARRYING
UPPER TROF BACK OFFSHORE...AM NOT READY TO JUMP ON A COOLER WETTER
SOLUTION YET. WILL ADD HOWEVER THAT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN A CONSIDERATION WITHOUT STRONG CAP ALOFT AND
AS MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CTRL US. 67

&&

.AVIATION...

INITIAL AVIATION CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR RAIN SHOWER OVER ONE OF THE TAF SITES.  WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEEMINGLY JUST SOUTH OF TOP AND FOE THIS SEEMS MORE
LIKELY AT MHK...AND HAVE GONE WITH A TEMPO GROUP IN MHK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN AT FORECAST
TIME.  LCLS INDICATE POSSIBILITY FOR A HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR
DECK THIS AFTERNOON...CURRENT OBS INDICATE AROUND 4-5 KFT CIGS...SO
KEPT VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER TOP AND
FOE LOOK TO BRING BETWEEN 3-4 KFT CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND A
POSSIBLE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER.  PLACED THE 3-4 KFT CIGS IN THE TOP
AND FOE TAFS...BUT NOT THE SHRA AS CONFIDENCE IN SHRA AT TAF SITES
REMAINS LOW.  MHK SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
FURTHER EAST.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

67/CAVANAUGH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
411 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-221100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
411 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OF SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.