Flash Flood Warning 65, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 301326
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
825 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

KSC031-059-139-301600-
OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-
825 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT FOR
COFFEY...FRANKLIN AND SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTIES...

AT 801 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED WATER 
RUNNING OVER HIGHWAY 31...ONE MILE EAST OF WAVERLY. NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RADAR ESTIMATES 
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST OSAGE...COFFEY AND 
FRANKLIN COUNTIES

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CENTROPOLIS...WILLIAMSBURG...WELLSVILLE...RANTOUL...QUENEMO...
PRINCETON...POMONA...OTTAWA AND LANE

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 144 AND 198.

RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY ROADS AND FARMLANDS
ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT
TO FLASH FLOODING.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
TOPEKA.

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.


LAT...LON 3805 9594 3805 9553 3840 9550 3840 9507
      3874 9506 3873 9548 3855 9562 3843 9566
      3842 9594

$$

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 301443
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
938 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

KSC031-059-139-301600-
OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-
938 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT FOR
COFFEY...FRANKLIN AND SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTIES...

AT 937 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED WATER OVER 
SEVERAL PAVED ROADS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF AN OVERBROOK TO 
OSAGE CITY LINE.  A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OBSERVER REPORTED WATER 
OVER SOME PAVED ROADS IN NORTHERN COFFEY COUNTY AS WELL.  MODERATE 
TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WARNED AREA 
THROUGH 1100 AM CDT.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EISENHOWER STATE PARK...POMONA STATE PARK...CENTROPOLIS...
WILLIAMSBURG...WELLSVILLE...RANTOUL...QUENEMO...PRINCETON...POMONA
LAKE...POMONA...OTTAWA...OLIVET...MELVERN...LYNDON AND LANE

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 144 AND 198.

RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY ROADS AND FARMLANDS
ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT
TO FLASH FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3805 9594 3805 9553 3840 9550 3840 9507
      3874 9506 3873 9548 3875 9555 3874 9573
      3843 9578 3842 9594

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
317 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CONTINUED RAINFALL OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. WILL TRIM THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6
PM TONIGHT. COUNTY AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
ANDERSON...FRANKLIN...COFFEY AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES ATTM.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS WEAKENED A BIT AND LIFTED
FARTHER NORTH INTO KANSAS. HOWEVER...THE 850MB BOUNDARY REMAINED
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN KS. THE LLJ CONTINUED TO
PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE CONVERGENT AREA AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET WAS ENHANCING LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS AROUND 2
INCHES. IR SATELLITE INDICATES WARMING CLOUD TOPS THAT ARE MOVING
ENE INTO MO. HOWEVER...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KS. LIGHTNING HAS DIMINISHED OVER
SOUTHEAST KS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. RADAR IS ESTIMATING
RAINFALL RATES OF A QUARTER INCH UP TO A HALF INCH IN FAR SOUTHERN
COFFEY...ANDERSON AND LYON COUNTIES. RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN MUCH
HIGHER JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

MODELS SHOW UPPER LOW DRIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TODAY BEFORE IT
DRIFTS BACK TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVE OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE RIDGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
CAUSING THE RIDGE AXIS TO NOSE INTO NEBRASKA/KANSAS AND THE PESKY
UPPER LOW TO FINALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE STATE. SOME CHANGES MADE TO
THE POPS BASED ON THIS TIMING. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LEFT POPS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY DRIED OUT THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

UNFORTUNATELY FORECAST NOT AS CUT AND DRIED FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEK AS WAS ONCE THOUGHT. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES ALSO MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOW CAP IN PLACE HELPING TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE CHANCES. STRONGER SHORT WAVE DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF
THE GFS. EXPECT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT.
FOR NOW LEFT FORECAST OF LOW POPS IN FOR WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER TIMING COULD SLOW AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COULD BE PUSHED
LATER IN THE WEEK.

HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 80 ALONG THE NEB BORDER TO
MID 70S AT BEST IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND
PERSISTENT SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HOLD IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID 80S NEAR THE NEB BORDER.
WARMER ON MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...

PROFILER DATA SHOWED THE 850MB FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH...THOUGH PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR KFOE AND KTOP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 16Z AT ALL TAF SITES. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MIX DEEP ENOUGH BY LATE MORNING THAT ALL TAF SITES SHOULD
ATTAIN MVFR CEILINGS. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 PM
SATURDAY FOR KSZ40-054>056-058-059.

&&

STARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
447 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-011000-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
447 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LYON...OSAGE...DOUGLAS...ANDERSON...FRANKLIN AND COFFEY COUNTIES.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED DUE TO PERSISTENT
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND
RUNOFF COULD CAUSE RIVERS...STREAMS AND CREEKS TO RISE QUICKLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE ENDING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD CREATE HAZARDOUS
FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH
OR ANY OBSERVED FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

STARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
648 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NNW OLPE              38.33N 96.20W
06/30/2007  M4.78 INCH       LYON               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

BYRNE