Flash Flood Warning 53, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOTS TO CONSIDER IN THIS SHORT TIME PERIOD.

FIRST IS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH AREA TONIGHT. LOTS OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER...AT LEAST 150% OF NORMAL...FOR EASTERN PART OF
THE CWA. WITH CWA IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER
WESTERLIES...REPEAT CELLS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. BIG QUESTION THEN IS HOW MUCH OF
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY BE SCOURED OUT AS FRONT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH.
MUCH PREFERRED NAM DEPICTION OF LOW LVL MOISTURE FORECAST THROUGHOUT
THIS PD. THUS, HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR DENSE FOG FORMING AFTER
MIDNIGHT IF ENOUGH CLEARING CAN BE MAINTAINED AS AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT DRIFTS THROUGH AREA. TEMPERATURES TRICKY TOO AND DEPENDENT ON
PUSH OF DRYER AIR. DID NOT DEPART TOO FAR FROM EARLIER FORECAST BUT
TEMPS AND FOG POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BEAR WATCHING.

THIS IN TURN LEADS TO DILEMMA FOR TUESDAY. WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS
CLOSE BY AT THIS TIME TMRW AFTN, AM CONCERNED ABOUT REDEVELOPMENT
ALG ANY CONVERGENT/MOISTURE BNDRY. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC
FOR CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS ALSO UNCHANGED FROM
EARLIER FORECAST...ALTHOUGH LOWER DEW POINTS THAN FORECAST COULD
MEAN HIGHER TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...APPEARS NOT ONLY A CONTINUED POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA IN THE EVENING...BUT ALSO
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS WEAK...BUT DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL JET GETS GOING AND PROVIDES THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EAST CWA FROM LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH STILL...THE BETTER CHANCES
THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WHICH SHOULD BE
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO EXPECTED MCS THAT ROLLS OF THE HIGH PLAINS
AND INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KS. IF THIS MCS DEVELOPS FURTHER NORTH
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING...THEN OUR CWA WILL BE IN
LINE FOR HIGHER POPS. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FAVORED
THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NAM. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY MORNING
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY FROM OVERNIGHT MCS/WAA AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION...BUT NAM WOULD SUGGEST BETTER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENT
AXIS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE
DAY. HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WEDNESDAY WITH
WARMER AIR PUSHING BACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE WARMER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH
HIGHS MAINLY THE LOWER 90S INTO SATURDAY. SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND TURN EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS...BUT EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO BE NORTH OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY IS STILL THERE FOR THE SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH A BOUNDARY INTO THE CWA WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT ONGOING LOW POPS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN THAT
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK MAY BE OVERDOING THIS SCENARIO WHICH WOULD POINT
TOWARDS A DRIER FCST. WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.

MODELS SIMILAR IN BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT MONDAY DRY WITH VERY WARM TEMPS. WILL KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...

MANY FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO A DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. FIRST AND FOREMOST...WITH 500H WAVE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...KEPT VCTS AT TOP/FOE/MHK
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND 5SM
VISIBILITIES AT EACH SITE. NAM HANGS UP THE FRONT OVER NE KANSAS
OVERNIGHT...WHILE GFS CLEARS THINGS OUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER 03Z.
LEANED TOWARD THE NAM...AND SLOWING OF THE FRONT. VCTS CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AT TOP/FOE. 06-12Z PROBLEMATIC AS WELL.
EXTREMELY MOIST LL ENV AND LIGHT WINDS FORECAST BY BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS WOULD BOTH SIGNIFY BR/FG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
BUT...RESIDUAL STRATUS DECK NAM KEEPS OVER NE KANSAS COULD HINDER
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS...4SM INSERTED
AT EACH SITE DURING THE MORNING HOURS (08-12Z AT TOP/FOE...A BIT
LATER AT MHK WHERE WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER). VISIBILITIES MAY
DROP EVEN LOWER THAN THAT...BUT LEFT FOR LATER SHIFTS TO ASSESS. 99

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
432 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-192145-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
432 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS WILL DECREASE BY LATER THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL. LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY STILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING. SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
343 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LAWRENCE                38.97N 95.24W
06/18/2007  U0.00 INCH       DOUGLAS            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            VERY HEAVY RAIN IN SHORT PERIOD OF TIME LED TO STREET
            FLOODING AND BARRICADING AT 19TH AND MAIN AND 23RD AND
            OUSDAHL IN LAWRENCE.

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
343 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LAWRENCE                38.97N 95.24W
06/18/2007                   DOUGLAS            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            VERY HEAVY RAIN IN SHORT PERIOD OF TIME LED TO STREET
            FLOODING AND BARRICADING AT 19TH AND MAIN AND 23RD AND
            OUSDAHL IN LAWRENCE.

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
415 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     FLOOD            LAWRENCE                38.97N 95.24W
06/18/2007                   DOUGLAS            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER REPORTED OVER CURB AT POINTS NEAR 27TH AND ALABAMA
            IN LAWRENCE. WATER MOVING VERY SLOWLY.

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
436 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N ESKRIDGE            38.89N 96.11W
06/18/2007  E2.50 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HEAVY RAIN LED TO AROUND 4 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING OVER
            K4 2 TO 4 MILES NORTH OF TOWN, AS REPORTED BY KDOT.

&&

JL