Red Flag Warning 21, NWS Great Falls, MT

000 
WWUS85 KTFX 022028
RFWTFX

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
228 PM MDT SUN SEP 2 2007

MTZ112-030300-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-070903T0300Z/
EASTERN GLACIER/TOOLE/CENTRAL AND EASTERN PONDERA/LIBERTY
COUNTIES-
228 PM MDT SUN SEP 2 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 112...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND OVER THE
ADJACENT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE GUSTY WINDS
COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 20 PERCENT WILL CREATE A
PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE IN
THE EVENING FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THESE
AREAS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

$$

THOMSON

000 
WWUS85 KTFX 030253
RFWTFX

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
853 PM MDT SUN SEP 2 2007

MTZ112-030400-
/O.EXP.KTFX.FW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-070903T0300Z/
EASTERN GLACIER/TOOLE/CENTRAL AND EASTERN PONDERA/LIBERTY
COUNTIES-
853 PM MDT SUN SEP 2 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING. 

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 AND HUMIDITIES
HAVE BEGUN TO RECOVER. THE PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS HAS
PASSED...SO THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

THOMSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
310 AM MDT SUN SEP 2 2007

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS TODAY FOR CONTINUED VERY WARM
WEATHER. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER FLOW AND MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY COMBINE FOR ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MY FAR NORTHERN ZONES. MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE GUSTY
WEST WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT COMBINING WITH LOW RH FOR
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HAVE UPGRADED WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR ZONE 112 BUT HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE WATCH FOR 114 AS
WINDS SHOULD NOT EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD IN
THIS REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH WARM AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. FLOW ALOFT OVER MY FORECAST AREA WILL BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MY CWA. MPJ

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MAIN ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SW MT
AND WY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR A CONTINUED RISK OF
SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. CYCLONIC NW FLOW
ALOFT SETS UP BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH MODELS NOW DEPICTING ADDITIONAL
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO
NORTH CENTRAL MT THAT PERIOD AS NORTHERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. A DRIER AND MORE
ANTICYCLONIC NW FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SOME WARMING DEVELOPING
BY FRIDAY. HOENISCH

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT DURING THIS
PERIOD....DIFFERING ONLY IN MINOR DETAILS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM TO A LITTLE
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.  EK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
ADJACENT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING
BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PROMPTING
ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112. GUSTY
WINDS IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 114 ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER AND
SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS THOSE FURTHER NORTH. THEREFORE...THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 114. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0437Z.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE MOVING THROUGH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN US. THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS VERY LOW. SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF SMOKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  56  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  86  53  89  52 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  89  55  90  56 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  95  54  94  56 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  82  46  82  46 /  10  10  10  10
DLN  89  51  89  53 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  89  56  91  56 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  90  56  88  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112.

&&

SHORT TERM...MPJ
LONG TERM...HOENISCH
AVIATION...ZELZER

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS