Alert archive / Florida / Tornado Warnings in 2007

Tornado Warning 4, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

February 2, 2007Polk County, Florida

NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this tornado warning at Feb 2, 2007, 7:56 AM EST for Polk County, Florida. It was in force for 19 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Feb 2, 2007, 7:56 AM EST (12:56 UTC)
Expired
Feb 2, 2007, 8:15 AM EST
In force
19 min
Issued by
NWS Tampa Bay, FL
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Polk County, FL

The radar

The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Feb 2, 8:00 AM ESTTORNADOFrostproof, FLBRIEF TOUCHDOWN NEAR FROSTPROOF. NO DAMAGE REPORTED THUS FAR. RELAYED BY COUNTY AND STATE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this tornado warning; the first came 4 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 0.9 hours before the alert went out and 91 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tampa Bay, FL at 12:00Z on 2007-02-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 997 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tampa Bay, FL at 12:00Z on 2007-02-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 345 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
997 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-10 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
598 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
345 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
378 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.7
Supercell composite
10.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WFUS52 KTBW 021257
TORTBW
FLC105-021315-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0004.070202T1256Z-070202T1315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
756 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 815 AM EST

* AT 756 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  TORNADO OVER SOUTHERN POLK COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  FROSTPROOF NOW.

THIS STORM IS MOVING ACROSS HIGHWAY 98.  PLEASE REPORT ANY DAMAGE 
NEARBY TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER YOUR HEAD AND
BODY WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OF LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN BY CALLING 813-645-2323.


&&

LAT...LON 2786 8165 2768 8162 2772 8117 2789 8133

$$

88
1 follow-up statement
000 
WWUS52 KTBW 021313
SVSTBW

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
813 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

FLC105-021323-
/O.EXP.KTBW.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070202T1315Z/
POLK-
813 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
815 AM EST...

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  FROSTPROOF BY 815 AM EST.

AT 813 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THE TORNADO
HAD DISSIPATED...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WERE STILL 
POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM.

&&

LAT...LON 2786 8165 2768 8162 2772 8117 2789 8133

$$

55

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this tornado warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this tornado warning went out at Feb 2, 4:18 AM EST, 3 hours 38 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 2, 4:18 AM EST, 3 hours 38 minutes before
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY - RUSKIN FL
418 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

CORRECTED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY.  A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ONSHORE REACHING THE TAMPA BAY REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  STORMS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER STRONG AT THIS TIME..BUT
THEY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER FAR SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS USHERING IN SOME COOLER DRIER
AIR AF THE SURFACE.  HOWEVER...A SHORT DISTANCE ABOVE THE SURFACE
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ABOVE 5000 FEET WHICH WILL SETUP
A OVERRUNNING PATTERN KEEPING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
RIDGE DOWN THE STATE AT THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH TUESDAY.  MOISTURE FROM A REMNANT BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ENERGY
ALOFT FROM THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE...THE
MOISTURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA AND CLEAR OUT THE RAIN CHANCES
BY TUESDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE FROM WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS TO NEAR
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.  CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING TODAY AND
SHIFT TO NORTH NORTHEAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN
THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE...POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA....INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH NO HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  73  55  63  46 /  80  10  40  50
FMY  81  63  71  52 /  70  20  40  50
GIF  75  57  63  46 /  80  10  40  50
SRQ  73  58  65  49 /  80  10  40  50
BKV  73  50  61  40 /  40  10  40  50
SPG  73  57  63  48 /  80  10  40  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 60 NM INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE...PRC
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JLC
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 2, 6:46 AM EST, 1 hour 10 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
646 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-021600-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
646 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TODAY...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN SOMEWAHT HIGH THIS MORNING WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF RIP
CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO
NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THIS HIGH WILL ALSO USHER IN SOME COLDER AIR WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEVY COUNTY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED TODAY.

PRC

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Feb 2, 6:07 AM EST, 1 hour 49 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
607 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

FLZ051-055-021130-
MANATEE-HILLSBOROUGH-
607 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS RACING INTO SOUTH HILLSBOROUGH AND NORTHERN
MANATEE COUNTY...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH...WILL AFFECT
GIBSONTON...APOLLO BEACH...WIMAUMA AND SUN CITY CENTER...AS WELL AS
PALMETTO AND ELLENTON...UNTIL 630 AM EST. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH
MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS
AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO
AT TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.
&&
WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE A SAFE
DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER VEHICLES. WHEN USING WIPERS...TURN ON
HEADLIGHTS. AVOID DRIVING THROUGH PUDDLES THAT COULD HIDE POTHOLES OR
CAUSE HYDROPLANING. MAKE SURE YOUR HEADLAMPS...TIRES...AND WIPERS ARE
IN GOOD CONDITION. KEEP AN EMERGENCY KIT WHICH INCLUDES A
FLASHLIGHT...FLARES...AND SIMPLE HAND TOOLS.

SEVEN THOUSAND PEOPLE DIE IN WEATHER RELATED AUTOMOBILE ACCIDENTS
EACH YEAR... MANY DUE TO POOR VISIBILITY AND WET ROADS.

REMEMBER: VISIBILITY AND TRACTION LEAVE TIME FOR REACTION

BSG
Special weather statement, Feb 2, 6:36 AM EST, 1 hour 20 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
636 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

FLZ051-052-055-021215-
POLK-MANATEE-HILLSBOROUGH-
636 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH
NORTHERN MANATEE AND WESTERN POLK COUNTY...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH...WILL AFFECT
BARTOW...MULBERRY...LAKELAND HIGHLANDS...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUN
CITY CENTER AND WIMAUMA...UNTIL 715 AM EST. THE STRONGEST CELL IS
MOVING INTO WESTERN POLK COUNTY NEAR MULBERRY. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50
MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE
LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO
AT TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

SHOULD STORMS INTENSIFY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WARNING
MAY BE REQUIRED...PARTICULARLY IN WESTERN POLK COUNTY BEFORE 7 AM.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES.

BSG
Local storm report, Feb 2, 7:09 AM EST, 47 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
709 AM EST FRI FEB 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 AM     TORNADO          6 NE WILDWOOD           28.92N 81.97W
02/02/2007                   SUMTER             FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LIKELY TORNADO. SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN NORTHERN
            SUMTER COUNTY. AREA GENERALLY BETWEEN OXFORD AND THE
            VILLAGES CONTINUING INTO LAKE COUNTY. AN NWS SURVEY TEAM
            WILL BE ENROUTE BY MID MORNING.

&&

BSG
Special weather statement, Feb 2, 7:13 AM EST, 43 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
713 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

FLZ052-021245-
POLK-
713 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN POLK COUNTY WITH
POSSIBILITY OF INTENSIFICATION...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH...WILL MOVE FROM BRADLEY
JUNCTION EAST INTO THE FORT MEADE...BARTOW...AND EVENTUALLY LAKE
WALES AREA....UNTIL 745 AM EST. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE
LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES
IS POSSIBLE. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT
TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL. THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY
FURTHER AND REQUIRE A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO
WARNING BEFORE 730 AM.
&&
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES.

BSG
Special weather statement, Feb 2, 7:52 AM EST, 4 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
752 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

FLZ052-021330-
POLK-
752 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN POLK COUNTY...

THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH...WILL AFFECT FORT
MEADE...FROSTPROOF...AND LAKE WALES...UNTIL 830 AM EST. GUSTY WINDS
40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO
TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IN ADDITION...AN
ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED AND
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WARNINGS.

RJS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 1, 8:41 PM ESTSpecial Marine WarningTBW64 min
Feb 1, 11:19 PM ESTTornado WarningTBWCitrus26 min
Feb 2, 1:04 AM ESTSpecial Marine WarningTBW56 min
Feb 2, 1:58 AM ESTSpecial Marine WarningTBW32 min
Feb 2, 2:14 AM ESTTornado WarningTBWCitrus46 min
Feb 2, 2:59 AM ESTCoastal Flood WarningTBW4 hr
Feb 2, 3:02 AM ESTTornado WarningTBWSumter18 min
Feb 2, 6:16 AM ESTSpecial Marine WarningTBW29 min

Nearby

Tornado Warnings in Florida, 2007Every tornado warning in 2007Tornadoes in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.