Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTBW 101225 CCA
RFWTBW

RED FLAG WARNING...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
722 AM EST WED JAN 10 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE COUNTIES OF LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER...HERNANDO 
AND PASCO...

.COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-102300-
/O.UPG.KTBW.FW.A.0002.070110T1600Z-070110T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0002.070110T1600Z-070110T2300Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-
722 AM EST WED JAN 10 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS
MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT. 

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY.
FOUR OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

$$

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY - RUSKIN FL
406 AM EST WED JAN 10 2007

.UPDATE...BASED ON LATEST TEMPERATURES FROM OBSERVATIONS...
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 40S AND 50S...HAVE DECIDED TO DROP
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.  TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL SOME MORE...BUT LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILL CRITERIA OF
35 DEGREES OR LOWER OVER A SUBSTANTIAL AREA WILL NOT OCCUR THIS
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
340 AM EST WED JAN 10 2007

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...CURRENTLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED AS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING TO FALL THANKS
TO ALL THE MIXING WITH READINGS STILL IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MAY BE ABLE TO DROP WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THINGS REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH
FRIDAY.  MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC TODAY WITH RIDGING SETTING UP OVER FLORIDA AND THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY FRIDAY.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUING TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
FLORIDA.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS FLORIDA
TODAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THEY SHOULD REMAIN THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO COME THROUGH SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH MOST AREAS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S.

FOR TONIGHT...MOST OF THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR
OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTHERN
ZONES TO LOWER 50S FROM EAST FACING PORTIONS OF TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE GULF COAST.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MODERATING TREND WILL BEGIN AS
EASTERLY FLOW AND MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
AREA.  THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION LEADING TO SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART FAIR DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE 70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TAMPA
BAY AREA SOUTHWARD TO FORT MYERS ON FRIDAY.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALSO MODERATE WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 40S NATURE COAST TO
UPPER 50S FROM EAST FACING PORTIONS OF TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...RIDGING ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE STATE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.  THEN A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEREFORE ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN COOL TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AND SUBSIDE SOME
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN AT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO EAST
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE U.S.
EAST COAST WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...WINDS COULD APPROACH EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA
EACH NIGHT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  ON SUNDAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT
TO SOUTHEAST AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVELY COOL DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
35 PERCENT FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS FROM PASCO COUNTY NORTHWARD AND WILL
UPGRADE TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE COUNTIES.  ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS
LIKE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT...BUT
DURATIONS WILL NOT BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.
HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WINDS MAY BE CLOSE TO THE 15 MPH THRESHOLD AND
MAY NEED TO COUNTIES FURTHER SOUTH.  FOR NOW WILL JUST HEADLINE WITH
1 TO 3 HOURS BELOW 35 PERCENT AND MENTION WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15
MPH.  ON THURSDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE KEEPING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  64  48  74  56 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  69  51  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  64  48  72  55 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  65  48  74  56 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  63  40  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  63  52  73  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-LEVY-PASCO-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING
     FOR BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 60 NM INCLUDING
     TAMPA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING
     THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     OUT TO 60 NM INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE...PRC
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JLC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
520 AM EST WED JAN 10 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-101500-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
520 AM EST WED JAN 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND
20 KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA.

DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND THUS A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 4 TO 6 FEET
WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A RAPID MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S AND DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. ON COLD FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SOME COOLER DRIER AIR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRC