Red Flag Warning 41, NWS Tallahassee, FL

000
WWUS82 KTAE 201831
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
231 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG
BEND...EXCLUDING THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF BAY...GULF...FRANKLIN AND
DIXIE...DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...DUE TO AN POSSIBLE COMBINATION OF HIGH
DISPERSION INDEX VALUES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

.DISCUSSION...DRY LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING TODAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
WINDS...RESULTING IN HIGH DISPERSION INDEX VALUES OVER THE AREA.
THESE VALUES DO REMAIN BORDERLINE WITH RESPECT TO CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH UP FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FLZ007-009>011-013-016>019-026>029-210245-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0041.000000T0000Z-070320T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0037.070321T1700Z-070321T2300Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-CALHOUN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-
231 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2007 /131 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2007/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON A RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. DUE TO EXPECTED HIGH DISPERSION VALUES
OVER THE AREA...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUG THE EARLY EVENING. LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND
POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

GIBBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
352 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2007

.SYNOPSIS...WE HAVE THE A-TEAM ON THIS MORNING...MIC ON AVIATION/
FIRE WEATHER AND THE SOO AT THE PUBLIC/MARINE DESK. IT COULD NOT BE
A BETTER FORECAST SITUATION FOR THE MANAGEMENT TEAM. SURFACE
FEATURES SHOW HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING EXTENDING
BACK TOWARDS THE WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. GENERALLY
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GOM BECOMING
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST CANADA
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS.
ALOFT...A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM IN CANADA
EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH
EXTENDS BACK INTO OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. A DEEP SHARP TROUGH IS
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.

ACROSS OUR CWA...CURRENT TEMPS ARE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S AT CTY
TO THE MID 50S ELSEWHERE. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY CALM OVER THE LAND AREAS. SOME CIRRUS IS OBSERVED ON IR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ALSO...SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS ARE
CREEPING INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
STRONG UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER BAJA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
INFLUENCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DOWNSTREAM UPPER ANTICYCLONE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IN TURN CREATES AN UPPER LOW
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO
NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEFORE DISSIPATING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
BRINGING IN CLOUDS AND ATLANTIC COASTAL SHOWERS AS ONSHORE EASTERLY
FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS DOWN INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...
MOST OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL BE RESTRICTED TO SOUTH FLORIDA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
BY FRIDAY... THE TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH SETUP ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF STATES WILL HANG WITH US INTO SATURDAY. THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA COAST
ON SATURDAY. THE BAJA LOW BREAKS OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND
RIDGING INTENSIFIES ALONG THE EASTCOAST OF THE U.S.  EAST-WEST
SURFACE RIDGING WILL RETURN AND BE CENTERED ACROSS GEORGIA AND
WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FINALLY...BY MONDAY...A
WEAKENED TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND BEYOND...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCAL MVFR VSBYS VICINITY OF VLD
AND AROUND OTHER SWAMPY AREAS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND IN
PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOPING BRIEFLY BEFORE SUNRISE. SCT CU WILL
DEVELOP 5-6 THSND FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WINDS WILL REMAIN
E-SE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
SEAS HAVE FALLEN ABOUT A FOOT SINCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
MAINTAIN EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED GRADIENT AS THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SINCE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A LITTLE ON THE MOIST
SIDE RECENTLY...PROBABLY NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT MIXING... I UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE DEWPOINTS BY A FEW DEGREES TODAY...WHICH WILL NECESSITATE A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR MAINLY OUR INLAND COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. ON
WEDNESDAY...IT IS A LITTLE LESS CLEARCUT. IT APPEARS THAT WE MAY GET
A FEW HOURS OF LESS THAN 35 PERCENT...HOWEVER...THE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS DISPERSION VALUES. THE HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
CREATING HIGH DISPERSION VALUES...WHICH COULD CREATE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  81  49  79  51  79 /   0  10   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY  77  56  80  56  79 /   0  10   0   0   0
DOTHAN       78  50  80  53  78 /   0  10   0   0   0
ALBANY       80  50  79  53  77 /   0  10   0   0  10
VALDOSTA     79  50  78  52  78 /   0  10   0   0  10
CROSS CITY   79  50  80  51  80 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
     INLAND EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND COUNTIES.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE INLAND EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG
     BEND COUNTIES FOR ONE HOUR OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COUPLED
     WITH DISPERSION VALUES GREATER THAN 75.

GMZ750...NONE.
GMZ755...NONE.
GMZ770...NONE.
GMZ775...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC/MARINE...WATSON
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...DUVAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
532 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2007

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ750-755-770-775-211000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
532 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2007 /432 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2007/

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ENHANCE THE SPREAD
OF ANY WILDFIRES THAT DEVELOP. THERE IS A ALSO MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

A DRY AND FAIRLY WARM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NEXT
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WHEN A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TAE.

12-WATSON