Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2007
Mesoscale Discussion 921
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 29, 2007, 5:40 PM MDT for 13 counties in Colorado; 20 counties in Kansas; 10 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 95 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 29, 2007, 5:40 PM MDT (23:40 UTC)
- Expired
- May 29, 2007, 7:15 PM MDT
- In force
- 95 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 43 counties
Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Cheyenne County, CO, Crowley County, CO, Huerfano County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Otero County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Pueblo County, CO, Yuma County, CO, Cheyenne County, KS, Decatur County, KS, Finney County, KS, Gove County, KS, Grant County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Lane County, KS, Logan County, KS, Morton County, KS, Norton County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Chase County, NE, Dawson County, NE, Dundy County, NE, Frontier County, NE, Furnas County, NE, Gosper County, NE, Hayes County, NE, Hitchcock County, NE, Lincoln County, NE, Red Willow County, NE
The radar
The Goodland radar (KGLD), 63 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 165 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 18 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -196 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1497 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 33 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -86 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -23 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 ACUS11 KWNS 292340 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292340 KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-300115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0921 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2007 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN CO...WRN KS...SWRN NEB. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 304...305... VALID 292340Z - 300115Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 304...305...CONTINUES. SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT/DEVELOP SEWD INTO MORE OF W-CENTRAL/SWRN KS DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND ADDITIONAL WW LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED SE OF 304 AND E OF 305. MEANWHILE...INITIAL COMPLEX OF SVR TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE GENERALLY ESEWD ACROSS ERN CO. VERY WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT AS OF 2320Z FROM NRN PUEBLO COUNTY CO ENEWD ACROSS WRN CHEYENNE COUNTY CO...THEN NEWD OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY KS -- WELL AHEAD OF MOST ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN CO. THIS OUTFLOW IS FOLLOWED BY STG PRESSURE RISES AND VERY COLD AIR -- E.G. 46 F AT LIC DURING PAST HOUR -- AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SURGE SEWD OVER REMAINDER SERN CO AND INTO WRN KS DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BECAUSE OF DEEPENING/STRONG LAYER OF STATIC STABILITY FROM SFC THROUGH SUBCLOUD LAYER...HOWEVER TSTMS OVER OUTFLOW AIR STILL WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. OVER AREA S OF BOUNDARY...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AND SHOULD REMAIN SFC-BASED WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS TORNADOES...UNTIL BEING UNDERCUT BY PROGRESSIVE COLD POOL. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC/NAM-KF SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 2000 J/KG MLCAPES SUPPORTED BY SFC TEMPS MID-UPPER 70S F AND SFC DEW POINTS MID 50S F. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND LCL EACH WILL LOWER SOMEWHAT DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS IN AIR MASS AHEAD OF OUTFLOW SURGE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANVIL SHADOWING AND DIABATIC SFC COOLING. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR PEAKS NEAR I-25 AT 40-50 KT AND WEAKENS TO 25-30 KT EWD INTO KS...INDICATING MOST FAVORABLE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DISCRETE/SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS IN CO WILL BE BETWEEN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...RTN MESA...I-25...AND N-S LINE THRU LHX. MEANWHILE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS MAY STILL POSE RISK OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS BETWEEN DUNDY-DAWSON COUNTIES NEB..BEFORE THAT ACTIVITY IS OVERTAKEN BY CO COLD SURGE. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 920 FOR MORE DETAILS ON HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER THIS REGION. ..EDWARDS.. 05/29/2007 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU... 36970197 37010512 38280486 39140416 39780270 40670189 41469999 40639954 40239949 38710020 37690091 37060174
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 12:12 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Arapahoe, Bent, Broomfield, Cheyenne, Crowley and 16 more | 93 min |
| May 29, 12:29 PM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adams, Arapahoe, Denver, Douglas, Elbert, El Paso and 9 more | 8 hr |
| May 29, 2:52 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Arapahoe, Bent, Broomfield, Cheyenne, Crowley and 16 more | 53 min |
| May 29, 4:34 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, El Paso, Kit Carson, Lincoln, Yuma | 3 hr |
| May 29, 5:08 PM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Baca, Bent, Cheyenne, Crowley, Huerfano, Kiowa and 4 more | 4 hr |
| May 28, 8:03 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Hayes | 87 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2007Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2007Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2007Every mesoscale discussion in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.