Tornado Warning 3, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
620 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

.AVIATION...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST THAN WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL SEE MVFR CIGS INVADE ONCE
AGAIN AFTER 06Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JCT AND BBD WHERE GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE
AFTER SUNSET. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AREAS
AGAIN IN THE MORNING...BUT TIMING AND RESTRICTIONS TO VISBYS NOT
CERTAIN AND WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT AGAIN TIMING
AND LOCATIONS STILL NOT CERTAIN ENOUGH FOR A MENTION AT THIS TIME.
MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE PROB OR TEMPO GROUPS IN LATTER FORECAST ONCE
THESE BECOME BETTER DETERMINED.

BRAZZELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER CLOSED LOW IS MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BACKED UP ALL THE
WAY TO THE NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO ARE RELATIVELY CLOUDLESS THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER LOW ALLOWING FOR GOOD AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN FORMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL BE
ENTERING SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING ON A TRACK THAT PUTS IT
INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY TOMORROW MORNING. AS INDICTED ON THE
LATEST RUC...NEAR 50 KNOT LLJ WILL CRANK UP OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN
THIS EVENING AND GIVEN GOOD INHERENT DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HEATING UP THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE
INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SEVERE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT GIVEN
THEIR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ANTICIPATED STORMS.

UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN BIFURCATING TOMORROW WITH THE SECOND CLOSED
LOW FORMING OVER ARIZONA AND MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF
RAINFALL FOR OUR FORECAST AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY AS IT MOVES EAST.
TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY
BRINGING THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO A CLOSE. WE WILL HAVE A
BRIEF RESPITE AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PUSHING A PACIFIC FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 62  75  59  69 /  50  30  30  30
SAN ANGELO 	MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
JUNCTION 	 63  72  61  71 /  40  20  40  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

27/27/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
259 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-242000-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
259 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FAR WEST TEXAS...THE TRANS PECOS...AND THE PERMIAN BASIN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST...PERHAPS
REACHING INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING OF THE STORMS IS LIKELY AS THEY
REACH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...THEY MAY STILL REMAIN ABOVE SEVERE
LIMITS..WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
SEE ANY OF THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A
SWEETWATER TO SAN ANGELO TO OZONA LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS
INTO MONDAY AS WELL. LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY...
WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY...AND CROCKETT COUNTY THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
754 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

TXZ076-240200-
CROCKETT TX-
754 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
WESTERN CROCKETT COUNTY...

AT 750 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR OVER CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY...OR ABOUT 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF BAKERSFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. IF THIS
THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES TO HOLD ITS STRENGTH...A WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED IN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF...
  NORTHWESTERN CROCKETT COUNTY.