Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Seattle, WA

000 
WGUS76 KSEW 142033
FFSSEW

TEST...FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT...TEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
133 PM PDT FRI SEP 14 2007

...THIS MESSAGE IS FOR TEST PURPOSES ONLY...

WAC057-061-073-142043-
/T.CAN.KSEW.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070914T2230Z/
/00000.2.SM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SNOHOMISH WA-SKAGIT WA-WHATCOM WA-
133 PM PDT FRI SEP 14 2007

...THIS MESSAGE IS FOR TEST PURPOSES ONLY...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL WHATCOM...
CENTRAL SKAGIT AND SNOHOMISH COUNTIES...

THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. DO NOT TAKE ACTION BASED ON THIS MESSAGE.

LAT...LON 4859 12162 4859 12190 4830 12191 4829 12103
      4816 12092 4802 12115 4789 12118 4781 12108
      4777 12113 4778 12240 4795 12231 4803 12221
      4808 12234 4828 12240 4830 12192 4858 12190
      4858 12229 4900 12217 4901 12160
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 180DEG 0KT 4826 12176

$$

BURKE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT FRI SEP 14 2007

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AREAS OF MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SOME CLEARING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. RAIN IS LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT PASSES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...ACARS SOUNDINGS AND PILOT REPORTS INDICATE A DEEP
MARINE LAYER THIS MORNING WITH CLOUD TOPS AROUND 4-5K FT. SOME
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE WAS REPORTED EARLIER THIS MORNING W/ WEAK
INSTABILITY LIFTING THE TOP OF THE INVERSION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT
SCATTER CLOUDS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. I AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS
SHIFTS ASSESSMENT OF GOING A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE TODAY
GIVEN THAT MOS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO WARM THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
THE WEAK DEFORMATION BAND CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS SRN WA/N OREGON
HAS PRODUCED A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND ASTORIA THE PAST HOUR. MODELS
DISSIPATE THIS FEATURE BEFORE REACHING OUR SRN PART OF THE CWA SO
NOT MUCH MORE THAT A FEW MID CLOUDS ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER.

SFC GRADIENTS REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
LIKELY TO REDEVELOP. THE NAM-12 ONCE AGAIN INDICATES A DEEP MARINE
LAYER WITH THE CAP REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EVEN THE ETA MOS MAINTAINS A BKN-OVC STRATUS DECK THROUGH
MOST THE DAY. THE FORECAST ALREADY IMPLIES MORE CLOUDS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THAN TODAY SO NO CHANGES NEEDED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
COOL...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE SUNDAY SYSTEM THE PAST COUPLE
RUNS...NOW BRINGING RAIN TO THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTO
PUGET SOUND BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THE FRONT
BEGINNING TO SPLIT AND SPLIT AS IN PUSHES ONSHORE...RESULTING IN
LESS QPF THAN SOME PREVIOUS RUNS HAD SHOWN. RAIN SHOULD DECREASE AND
TAPER TO SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE FRONT MOVING EAST. WE MAY GET
A PSCZ FORMING LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SWLY GRADIENTS
BEHIND THE FRONT.  MERCER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FOLLOWING THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE EXTENDED MODELS DIG AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE RIDGING BUILDS OUT AROUND
140W. THE MODELS GRADUALLY PUSH THE TROUGH INLAND TO NEAR THE GREAT
BASIN BY MIDWEEK...BUT THEN BEGIN DIVERGING WITH THE DETAILS BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. BOTH SOLUTIONS SUGGEST RIDGING REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK FOR DRIER CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUTUMN. 27

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE CEILINGS AS LOW STRATUS
FILTERED IN OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON. MOST SITES THIS
MORNING REPORTING CIGS 2000-3000FT WITH PATCHY FOG AT KPAE AND IFR
CONDITIONS AT KBLI. UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SW
OREGON IS ALSO SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN WA. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE STRATUS LAYER IS APPROX 4500FT WITH A BREAKOUT BY
MID AFTERNOON FOR THE INTERIOR AND AFT 00Z FOR THE COAST.

KSEA...EXPECTING CIGS OVC030 THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BREAKING UP BY 21Z. WINDS TODAY WILL
BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.SMALL CRAFT CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE