Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Blacksburg, VA

000 
WWUS81 KRNK 060000
RFWRNK

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
800 PM EDT THU APR 5 2007

...DIMINISHING WINDS AND RISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS EVENING...

.SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN MOST
LOCATIONS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE BEGUN TO RISE AS
TEMPERATURES FALL.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-060100-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-070406T0000Z/
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
800 PM EDT THU APR 5 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS CANCELED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT HAS DECREASED ENOUGH TO ALLOW CANCELLATION
OF THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

$$

WERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
637 AM EDT THU APR 5 2007

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...

COLD ADVECTION ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL BRING MVFR
CEILINGS INTO BLF AND LWB...AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES.
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD SEE JUST PARTLY CLOUDY...OR AT
WORST VFR CEILINGS. THE MVFR CEILINGS AT BLF AND LWB WILL EITHER
LIFT TO VFR...OR JUST BECOME SCATTERED. WINDS BY AFTERNOON DURING
THE BEST MIXING TIME WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED...
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. THE SFC WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
AFTER SUNSET. MVFR CEILING WILL RETURN TO BLF BY LATE EVENING...
AND THEN LAST OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY SPREAD
LIGHT SNOW INTO THE BLF AND LWB AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WELL PAST
THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 421 AM EDT THU APR 5 2007/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ENOUGH SO THAT THE HIGHEST GUSTS ARE BELOW
THE ADVISORY LEVEL OF 40 KNOTS AT ALL LOCATIONS...SO I HAVE LET
THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 400 AM. WINDS WILL BE STRONG
TODAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE GUSTS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30 TO 40
KNOT RANGE. 00Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY COLD AIR THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WHICH IS POISED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA TODAY. MODELS SHOW 850 MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -8C IN
SRN WV...AND WITH A LOT OF CLOUD COVER THERE...I HAVE GONE CLOSE
TO THE COLD MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...WHERE I EXPECT MORE SUN...I HAVE
GONE A LITTLE WARMER THAN MOS THINKING THAT THE APRIL SUN WILL
COUNTERACT THE COLD ADVECTION. MOISTURE LOOK LIMITED EVEN IN
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREA OF SE WV...SO I KEPT POPS 14 PERCENT OR LOWER
FIGURING THERE WAS LITTLE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP...AND ADDED
IN SCATTERED FLURRIES INSTEAD. AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT-
ACTUALLY INCREASING A BIT DUE TO CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION...I
STAYED CLOSE TO MOS LOWS THINKING THEY MATCHED THE FCST 850 MB
TEMPS WITH GOOD MIXING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA- WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
FREEZING TEMPS IN THE HWO AND ISSUE ANOTHER PNS HIGHLIGHTING THE
FREEZE AS WELL.

A WELL ORGANIZED...COMPACT SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED OVER THE RIDGE AND
IS MOVG THRU THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO PHASE THIS WAVE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT
ROTATES SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA. THIS PHASING OCCURS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IS IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION PRECIP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA- ESPECIALLY THE MTNS. THE NAM IS MUCH
WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND PHASES FURTHER EAST. OUR OLD FORECAST
LEANED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST OTHER THAN TO RAISE POPS ABOUT 10 PCT IN THE MTNS. LOOKS
LIKE THIS PRECIP...IF IT HAPPENS WOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FRIDAY...AND THEN TRANSITION TO COLD
ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT- SO MAINLY ON WESTERN SLOPES
AREAS. STAYED CLOSE TO MOS HIGHS FRIDAY...AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ONCE THE SHORT WAVE PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN THE FLOW INTO THE
AREA IS STRAIGHT IN FROM CANADA AND THE REALLY COLD AIR SHOULD
POUR INTO THE REGION. THIS TRAJECTORY SHOULD BE BETTER FOR UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL...SO I RAISED POPS A BIT IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF
SE WV. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS...AND EVEN THE PIEDMONT AREAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 40S. SATURDAY IN TURN WILL LIKELY BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT IN THIS COLD OUTBREAK...WITH TEENS WIDESPREAD IN THE
MTNS AND A HARD FREEZE EVEN IN THE PIEDMONT. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND BEGINS MONDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS INTO
MIDWEEK.

FIRE WEATHER /TODAY/...

WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS EXPECTED TO
DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS UP TO 15
MPH...AND DRY FUELS...WE WILL ISSUE ANOTHER FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. &&

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...
AVIATION...JJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
516 AM EDT THU APR 5 2007

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-060930-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
516 AM EDT THU APR 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALL AREAS WILL BE
EXPERIENCING OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING EACH NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE A HARD FREEZE FOR MOST LOCATIONS...REPEATING FOR SEVERAL NIGHTS
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS ESPECIALLY COLD...WITH
SOME TEENS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND MID 20S OR LOWER EVEN IN
THE PIEDMONT. IN ADDITION TO UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...MAKING IT
FEEL EVEN COLDER.

THE PUBLIC IS URGED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS AND MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING THIS RETURN TO MORE WINTER LIKE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
442 AM EDT THU APR 5 2007

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-052200-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOBSON...DANBURY...EDEN...WILKESBORO...
YADKINVILLE...STUART...ROCKY MOUNT...BEDFORD...AMHERST...
MARTINSVILLE...DANVILLE...LYNCHBURG...APPOMATTOX...SOUTH BOSTON...
KEYSVILLE
442 AM EDT THU APR 5 2007

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY
WINDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH
GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 30 MPH. IN ADDITION...EVEN DRIER AIR PUSHING
INTO THE REGION WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DOWN TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
DRY FUELS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON.

RCS