Wind Advisory 3, NWS Phoenix, AZ

000 
WWUS75 KPSR 212143
NPWPSR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
243 PM MST SUN JAN 21 2007

AZZ020-021-025-026-CAZ030>033-220400-
/O.CON.KPSR.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-070122T0400Z/
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-IMPERIAL COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EHRENBERG...PARKER...BOUSE...
QUARTZSITE...SALOME...SAN LUIS...SOMERTON...YUMA...
FORTUNA FOOTHILLS...DATELAND...TACNA...WELLTON...
COTTONWOOD VISITOR CENTER...LOST HORSE-KEYS VIEW JTNP...BLYTHE...
CHIRIACO SUMMIT...DESERT CENTER...EAGLE MTN...MIDLAND...BRAWLEY...
CALEXICO...EL CENTRO...GLAMIS...IMPERIAL...AND THE SALTON SEA
243 PM MST SUN JAN 21 2007 /143 PM PST SUN JAN 21 2007/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST /8 PM PST/ THIS
EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST /8 PM PST/ THIS
EVENING. 

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
...INCLUDING JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK...THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...AND THE WESTERN DESERTS OF ARIZONA UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO DIVE SOUTH INTO ARIZONA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...GENERATING STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...DOWN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHWEST DESERTS OF ARIZONA. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS...WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...AND STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED TO BLOW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING.

AT 2 PM...STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTED TO AROUND 40 MPH AT BOTH YUMA AND
BLYTHE CALIFORNIA. WINDS WERE ALSO GUSTING TO 38 MPH AT LOST HORSE IN
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK.

STRONG CROSSWINDS WILL POSE A HAZARD TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
MOTORISTS TRAVELING ON INTERSTATES 8 AND 10 BETWEEN ARIZONA AND
CALIFORNIA. IN ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER DESERT AREAS
COULD RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES TO WELL UNDER A MILE
AT TIMES IN BLOWING DUST OR BLOWING SAND. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF BETWEEN
30 AND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED...OR WIND GUSTS OF BETWEEN 40 AND
58 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY
FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

$$

BRECKENRIDGE

000 
WWUS75 KPSR 220227
NPWPSR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
727 PM MST SUN JAN 21 2007


AZZ020-021-025-026-CAZ030>033-220330-
/O.CAN.KPSR.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-070122T0400Z/
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-IMPERIAL COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EHRENBERG...PARKER...BOUSE...
QUARTZSITE...SALOME...SAN LUIS...SOMERTON...YUMA...
FORTUNA FOOTHILLS...DATELAND...TACNA...WELLTON...
COTTONWOOD VISITOR CENTER...LOST HORSE-KEYS VIEW JTNP...BLYTHE...
CHIRIACO SUMMIT...DESERT CENTER...EAGLE MTN...MIDLAND...BRAWLEY...
CALEXICO...EL CENTRO...GLAMIS...IMPERIAL...AND THE SALTON SEA
727 PM MST SUN JAN 21 2007 /627 PM PST SUN JAN 21 2007/

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE WIND ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER FOR A LARGE PART OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA WAS CANCELED AT 715 PM MST OR 615 PM
PST. STRONG NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH THAT DEVELOPED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON HAD FINALLY DIMINISHED INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE SUNDAY 
EVENING. NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FURTHER INTO THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AT MOST AREAS...WELL UNDER WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

$$

HV

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-211200-

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
905 PM AM MST SAT JAN 20 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM ARIZONA TONIGHT...GIVING A
SHORT BREAK IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. ANOTHER STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE PHOENIX AREA BY
SUNDAY EVENING. NUMEROUS RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 4000 FEET.  STRONG GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE LOW
WILL EXIT TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FROM THE WEST TUESDAY FOR DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO BRING WARMER WEATHER
BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ANOTHER STRONG COLD TROF WAS BARRELING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
ARIZONA FROM IDAHO THIS EVENING. VERY STRONG 500/300 MB HEIGHT RISES
THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA INDICATE THE RIDGE IS
FOLDING OVER INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... WHICH COULD DRIVE THIS
TROF SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD. WHATS AN EYE OPENER HOWEVER IS THE DUE
SOUTH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH BECAUSE OF A RAPID DECREASE IN
PLANETARY VORTICITY...WILL ENABLE THIS SYSTEM TO SPIN UP RAPIDLY
WITH INCREASING DYNAMICS. EVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE 500 MB HEIGHT
FALLS BY SUNDAY EVENING (150 METER 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS CENTERED 80
MILES WEST OF PHOENIX) INDICATE POWERFUL DYNAMICS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ...INCLUDING PHOENIX...LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MOISTURE WISE...PLOT DATA STILL SHOWED MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF AZ. THE DEVELOPING AGEOSTROPHIC
WIND COMPONENT WITH THIS SOUTHWARD MOVING TROF WILL WANT TO PULL
BACK OR MOVE NORTHWARD SOME OF THIS MOISTURE.  I THINK WHAT WAS ALSO
SOMEWHAT IMPORTANT WAS THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN CA AND PARTS OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN AZ...DUE TO THE CALIFORNIA
EDDY EFFECT OFF THE LOS ANGELES AND SAN DIEGO COASTS (PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND PER THE SAN DIEGO
SOUNDING). THE SAN DIEGO SOUNDING SHOWED A MARINE LAYER 4200 FEET
DEEP WITH SOUTH WIND IN THAT LAYER BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS. THIS IS
NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE... BUT EVERY H20 MOLECULE COUNTS WITH SUCH A
COLD EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCING AIRMASS FROM IDAHO.

THE UPSLOPE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY (ZONE 24)
COULD RECEIVE SEVERAL INCHES OF DRY SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA (SOUTHEAST CA AND
SOUTHWEST AZ) WILL BE AFFECTED MAINLY BY STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING
TO PERHAPS 35 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT STILL LOOKS OK.  IN FACT ALL FORECASTS FOR AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ LOOK OK ...SO NO UPDATES
PLANNED.

ANOTHER THING TO POINT OUT IS MORE COLD NIGHTTIME WEATHER IS ONE TAP
FOR SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ.  MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO NEAR 30 AGAIN DESPITE THE NORTHERLY
BREEZES.

BELOW IS AN EXCEPT FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION CONCERNING SNOW
LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO NEAR 3000 FEET OVER ZONE 24...AND MONDAY
MORNING LOWS WILL BECOME QUITE COLD. HOWEVER...SOME BREEZINESS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZE WARNING LEVELS. DURING THE DAY
MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND
DYNAMICS WILL BE DECREASING QUITE A BIT OVER OUR ERN CWA. SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY...BUT 1-2 INCHES NEW SNOW COULD
STILL ACRUE IN THE BACKWASH AREA BEHIND THE LOW. CLEARING SKIES EAST
WILL BE ON TAP MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS...AND LOW TEMPS TUE
MORNING COULD DROP EVEN COLDER THAN MONDAY MORNING...AS WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOWER. WE MAY WELL NEED A FREEZE
WARNING TUE MORNING...BUT IT IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ONE AT THIS
TIME. AGAIN...THIS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED BY THE FOLLOWING SHIFTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODELS ARE INDICATING THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES OF OPINION ON THE
DETAILS...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE TRYING TO RESOLVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF COLD AIR SLIDING DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
ALONG WITH TROUGHING UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE IN THE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY TIME-FRAME. THE IDEA OF UNDERCUTTING MAKES SENSE IN LIGHT
OF THE STRONG JET ENERGY ACROSS THE PACIFIC AT RELATIVELY LOW
LATITUDES...ALONG WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC REGION. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS DEPICTS A TROUGH FROM THE
NORTH BEGINNING TO ENTER NORTHERN ARIZONA AT THE END OF THE
EXTENDED. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND THUS CONSERVATIVELY
INDICATED REVERSAL OF WARMING TREND LATE IN THE EXTENDED WITH
SOMEWHAT MORE CLOUDINESS. NOT NEAR ENOUGH TO GO ON IN ORDER TO BEGIN
MENTIONING POPS JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY DEPICT EXPECTED WEATHER. SEE TAFS
PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL FOR MORE
DETAILED INFORMATION.

AVIATION DISCUSSION IS NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...WINTER STORM WATCH ZONE 24 5 PM MST SUNDAY THROUGH 11 AM MONDAY.

CA...NONE.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

VASQUEZ/11/17/WANEK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
629 AM MST SAT JAN 20 2007

AZZ024-211300-
SOUTHERN GILA/TONTO NF FOOTHILLS-
629 AM MST SAT JAN 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 35 HUNDRED FEET...DECREASING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 4 THOUSAND FEET THIS
AFTERNOON.

BE ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE SUDDEN DROP IN VISIBILITY DUE TO PATCHY DENSE
FOG AND SLICK ROADS DUE TO SNOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 4 THOUSAND FEET SUNDAY
AFTERNOON LOWERING TO NEAR 3 THOUSAND FEET SUNDAY NIGHT.

BE ALERT FOR SLICK ROADS DUE TO SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ022-023-027-028-211300-
NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-GREATER PHOENIX AREA-
SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
629 AM MST SAT JAN 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING.

BE ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE SUDDEN DROP IN VISIBILITY DUE TO PATCHY DENSE
FOG.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ020-021-025-026-CAZ030>033-211300-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-IMPERIAL COUNTY-
629 AM MST SAT JAN 20 2007 /529 AM PST SAT JAN 20 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY AND LA PAZ
COUNTY THIS MORNING...INCLUDING THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

BE ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE SUDDEN DROP IN VISIBILITY DUE TO PATCHY DENSE
FOG.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

STRONG GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTH OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...LASTING INTO MONDAY.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK EAST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY...AND DOWN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

USE EXTRA CAUTION WHILE DRIVING...ESPECIALLY ON EAST-WEST ORIENTED
HIGHWAYS INCLUDING INTERSTATES 10 AND 8 DUE TO SUDDEN GUSTS OF STRONG
WIND CROSSING THE HIGHWAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ELLIS