Winter Storm Watch 1, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

000 
WWUS41 KPHI 121459 AAA
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
959 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007

NJZ001-007-PAZ054-055-060>062-122300-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0001.070213T2100Z-070215T0300Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
959 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TODAY
AND IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE EAST, REACHING THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE SECOND LOW IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS
IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST, PASSING TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW
JERSEY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING SNOW TO BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH
VALLEY, THE POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY BEGINNING LATE ON
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET FOR A TIME FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXCEED SIX
INCHES. AS A RESULT, THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

IF YOU LIVE IN THE AREA AFFECTED BY THE WINTER STORM WATCH, PAY
SPECIAL ATTENTION TO UPDATED WEATHER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS OVER
THE COMING DAYS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

AS THE STORM MOVES UP OVER CANADAS MARITIME PROVINCES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO PULL MORE ARCTIC
AIR DOWN INTO OUR REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

$$

KRUZDLO - UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT.

THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR THE WINTER OF LATE 2006 THROUGH 
EARLY 2007.  THE PROBABILITIES GIVEN BELOW ARE BASED ON A 
COMBINATION OF STATISTICAL THEORY, OUR SNOWFALL FORECASTS OVER THE 
PAST SEVERAL WINTERS, AND THE MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS 
POTENTIAL STORM.  THE PERIOD OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS FROM TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

=====================================================================

           PROBABILITY (PERCENT) OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING
         THE FOLLOWING STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (INCHES)

=====================================================================
STATION      2IN    4IN    6IN    9IN   12IN   18IN   24IN
=====================================================================

MPO          80     70     50     20     10     <5     <5
ABE          80     70     50     20     10     <5     <5 
PHL          60     30     15      5     <5     <5     <5 
ACY          25     10     <5     <5     <5     <5     <5 
GED          25     10     <5     <5     <5     <5     <5 
=====================================================================
PROBABILITIES ARE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST 5 PERCENT.

STATION IDENTIFIERS:

MPO - MOUNT POCONO, PA (MOUNT POCONO AIRPORT)
ABE - ALLENTOWN, PA (LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
PHL - PHILADELPHIA, PA (PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
ACY - ATLANTIC CITY, NJ (ATLANTIC CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
GED - GEORGETOWN, DE (SUSSEX COUNTY AIRPORT)

000 
WWUS41 KPHI 122109
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
409 PM EST MON FEB 12 2007

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-131100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0001.070213T2100Z-070215T0300Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
409 PM EST MON FEB 12 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY 
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY BY 
LATE TUESDAY. THAT LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS 
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND 
ULTIMATELY PASSES TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON 
WEDNESDAY.

THE COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW AND SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN 
TO THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY IN FAR NORTHWEST NEW 
JERSEY BEGINNING LATE ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. 
TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION PRESENTLY IS FORECAST TO BE FROM 
FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES, AND A LIGHT ICING ALSO IS POSSIBLE. THEREFORE, 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MAINTAINS THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT 
IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

IF YOU LIVE IN THE AREA AFFECTED BY THE WINTER STORM WATCH, PAY
SPECIAL ATTENTION TO UPDATED WEATHER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS OVER
THE COMING DAYS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

AS THE STORM MOVES UP OVER CANADAS MARITIME PROVINCES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO PULL MORE ARCTIC
AIR DOWN INTO OUR REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

$$

NJZ007-PAZ060>062-131100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0001.070213T2100Z-070215T0300Z/
WARREN-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...READING...ALLENTOWN...
BETHLEHEM...EASTON
409 PM EST MON FEB 12 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY 
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY BY 
LATE TUESDAY. THAT LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS 
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND 
ULTIMATELY PASSES TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON 
WEDNESDAY.

THE COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW, THEN SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO 
THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND BERKS COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND 
WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY BEGINNING LATE ON TUESDAY AND 
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION 
PRESENTLY IS FORECAST TO BE FROM TWO TO FOUR INCHES, AND A 
SIGNIFICANT ICING ALSO IS POSSIBLE. THEREFORE, THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE MAINTAINS THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT FROM 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

IF YOU LIVE IN THE AREA AFFECTED BY THE WINTER STORM WATCH, PAY
SPECIAL ATTENTION TO UPDATED WEATHER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS OVER
THE COMING DAYS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

AS THE STORM MOVES UP OVER CANADAS MARITIME PROVINCES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO PULL MORE ARCTIC
AIR DOWN INTO OUR REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

$$

IOVINO/KRUZDLO/DELISI

000 
WWUS41 KPHI 131005
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
505 AM EST TUE FEB 13 2007

PAZ060-132200-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.070213T2100Z-070215T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.070213T1700Z-070215T0000Z/
BERKS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...READING
505 AM EST TUE FEB 13 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

LOW PRESSURE, LOCATED OVER ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING, WILL MOVE TO 
THE NORTHEAST.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER EASTERN 
KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT.  MEANWHILE, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.  THE 
SECOND LOW SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST, PASSING TO 
THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER TO 
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA FROM TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  LIGHT SNOW IS 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AND IT SHOULD BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY 
THIS EVENING.

FOR BERKS COUNTY, SNOW AND SLEET ARE FORECAST TO FALL OVERNIGHT AND 
DURING MOST OF WEDNESDAY.  THERE COULD EVEN BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING 
RAIN.  THE SNOW AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT 
TIMES.  BY THE TIME THE STORM TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY 
EVENING, A TOTAL OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO 
ACCUMULATE.

FOR THE COUNTIES OF CHESTER AND MONTGOMERY, SNOW AND SLEET ARE 
FORECAST TO FALL OVERNIGHT.  THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MIX WITH OR 
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE SNOW IS EXPECTED 
TO ACCUMULATE TO 3 TO 6 INCHES AND A SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION IS 
POSSIBLE, AS WELL. THE STORM SHOULD TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS ON 
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

IF YOU LIVE IN THE AREA AFFECTED BY THE WINTER STORM WARNING, PAY 
SPECIAL ATTENTION TO UPDATED WEATHER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FOR 
THE LATEST INFORMATION.

AS THE STORM MOVES UP OVER CANADAS MARITIME PROVINCES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO PULL MORE ARCTIC
AIR DOWN INTO OUR REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

$$

NJZ001-007-PAZ054-055-061-062-132200-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.070213T2100Z-070215T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.070213T2000Z-070215T0000Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
505 AM EST TUE FEB 13 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

LOW PRESSURE, LOCATED OVER ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING, WILL MOVE TO 
THE NORTHEAST.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER EASTERN 
KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT.  MEANWHILE, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.  THE 
SECOND LOW SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST, PASSING TO 
THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER TO 
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY FROM LATE TODAY INTO 
WEDNESDAY.  LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND IT 
SHOULD BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY THIS EVENING.

FOR THE COUNTIES OF CARBON, MONROE AND SUSSEX, SNOW IS FORECAST TO 
FALL OVERNIGHT AND DURING MOST OF WEDNESDAY.  THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE 
TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND IT WILL LIKELY MIX WITH SOME 
SLEET.  BY THE TIME THE STORM TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY 
EVENING, A TOTAL OF 10 TO 16 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO 
ACCUMULATE.

FOR THE COUNTIES OF LEHIGH, NORTHAMPTON, WARREN AND MORRIS, SNOW AND 
SLEET ARE FORECAST TO FALL OVERNIGHT AND DURING MOST OF WEDNESDAY.  
THERE COULD EVEN BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.  THE SNOW AND SLEET 
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.  BY THE TIME THE 
STORM TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, A TOTAL OF 6 TO 
10 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE.

FOR THE COUNTIES OF BUCKS, HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET, SNOW AND SLEET
ARE FORECAST TO FALL OVERNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE TO 3 TO 6 INCHES AND A SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE, AS WELL. THE STORM SHOULD TAPER TO SNOW
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.

IF YOU LIVE IN THE AREA AFFECTED BY THE WINTER STORM WARNING, PAY 
SPECIAL ATTENTION TO UPDATED WEATHER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FOR 
THE LATEST INFORMATION.

AS THE STORM MOVES UP OVER CANADAS MARITIME PROVINCES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO PULL MORE ARCTIC
AIR DOWN INTO OUR REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

$$

PAZ067-068-132200-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.070213T1700Z-070215T0000Z/
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN
505 AM EST TUE FEB 13 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE, LOCATED OVER ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING, WILL MOVE TO 
THE NORTHEAST.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER EASTERN 
KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT.  MEANWHILE, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.  THE 
SECOND LOW SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST, PASSING TO 
THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER TO 
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA FROM TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  LIGHT SNOW IS 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AND IT SHOULD BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY 
THIS EVENING.

FOR BERKS COUNTY, SNOW AND SLEET ARE FORECAST TO FALL OVERNIGHT AND 
DURING MOST OF WEDNESDAY.  THERE COULD EVEN BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING 
RAIN.  THE SNOW AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT 
TIMES.  BY THE TIME THE STORM TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY 
EVENING, A TOTAL OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO 
ACCUMULATE.

FOR THE COUNTIES OF CHESTER AND MONTGOMERY, SNOW AND SLEET ARE 
FORECAST TO FALL OVERNIGHT.  THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MIX WITH OR 
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE SNOW IS EXPECTED 
TO ACCUMULATE TO 3 TO 6 INCHES AND A SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION IS 
POSSIBLE, AS WELL. THE STORM SHOULD TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS ON 
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

IF YOU LIVE IN THE AREA AFFECTED BY THE WINTER STORM WARNING, PAY 
SPECIAL ATTENTION TO UPDATED WEATHER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FOR 
THE LATEST INFORMATION.

AS THE STORM MOVES UP OVER CANADAS MARITIME PROVINCES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO PULL MORE ARCTIC
AIR DOWN INTO OUR REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

$$

NJZ008>010-PAZ069-132200-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.070213T2000Z-070215T0000Z/
MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
DOYLESTOWN
505 AM EST TUE FEB 13 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE, LOCATED OVER ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING, WILL MOVE TO 
THE NORTHEAST.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER EASTERN 
KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT.  MEANWHILE, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.  THE 
SECOND LOW SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST, PASSING TO 
THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER TO 
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY FROM LATE TODAY INTO 
WEDNESDAY.  LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND IT 
SHOULD BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY THIS EVENING.

FOR THE COUNTIES OF CARBON, MONROE AND SUSSEX, SNOW IS FORECAST TO 
FALL OVERNIGHT AND DURING MOST OF WEDNESDAY.  THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE 
TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND IT WILL LIKELY MIX WITH SOME 
SLEET.  BY THE TIME THE STORM TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY 
EVENING, A TOTAL OF 10 TO 16 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO 
ACCUMULATE.

FOR THE COUNTIES OF LEHIGH, NORTHAMPTON, WARREN AND MORRIS, SNOW AND 
SLEET ARE FORECAST TO FALL OVERNIGHT AND DURING MOST OF WEDNESDAY.  
THERE COULD EVEN BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.  THE SNOW AND SLEET 
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.  BY THE TIME THE 
STORM TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, A TOTAL OF 6 TO 
10 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE.

FOR THE COUNTIES OF BUCKS, HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET, SNOW AND SLEET ARE 
FORECAST TO FALL OVERNIGHT.  THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MIX WITH OR 
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE SNOW IS EXPECTED 
TO ACCUMULATE TO 3 TO 6 INCHES AND A SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION IS 
POSSIBLE, AS WELL. THE STORM SHOULD TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS ON 
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

IF YOU LIVE IN THE AREA AFFECTED BY THE WINTER STORM WARNING, PAY 
SPECIAL ATTENTION TO UPDATED WEATHER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FOR 
THE LATEST INFORMATION.

AS THE STORM MOVES UP OVER CANADAS MARITIME PROVINCES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO PULL MORE ARCTIC
AIR DOWN INTO OUR REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

$$

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ016>018-PAZ070-071-132200-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.070213T1700Z-070215T0000Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MEDIA
505 AM EST TUE FEB 13 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE, LOCATED OVER ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING, WILL MOVE TO 
THE NORTHEAST.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER EASTERN 
KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT.  MEANWHILE, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.  THE 
SECOND LOW SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST, PASSING TO 
THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER TO 
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, MUCH OF NEW JERSEY, AND THE UPPER DELMARVA 
FROM TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY, 
WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATION LIKELY BY EVENING.

FOR THE COUNTIES OF PHILADELPHIA, DELAWARE, CAMDEN, GLOUCESTER, 
SALEM, NEW CASTLE AND CECIL, AS WELL AS MARYLANDS KENT COUNTY,  
SNOW AND SLEET ARE FORECAST TO FALL OVERNIGHT.  THE PRECIPITATION 
SHOULD CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE SNOW IS 
EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE TO 2 TO 4 INCHES AND A LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION 
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR A TIME ON 
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR PLAIN 
RAIN.  THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES, RESULTING IN LOCALIZED 
FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.  THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE 
BACK TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.

IF YOU LIVE IN THE AREA AFFECTED BY THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, PAY 
SPECIAL ATTENTION TO UPDATED WEATHER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FOR 
THE LATEST INFORMATION.

AS THE STORM MOVES UP OVER CANADAS MARITIME PROVINCES ON WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT AND THURSDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO PULL MORE ARCTIC AIR DOWN INTO 
OUR REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANY SLUSH OR STANDING WATER ON 
ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL FREEZE QUICKLY.

$$

DEZ002-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ021-022-132200-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.070213T1700Z-070214T1200Z/
KENT DE-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...
MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON
505 AM EST TUE FEB 13 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE, LOCATED OVER ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING, WILL MOVE TO 
THE NORTHEAST.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER EASTERN 
KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT.  MEANWHILE, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.  THE 
SECOND LOW SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST, PASSING TO 
THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME WINTER WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW 
JERSEY AND THE UPPER DELMARVA FROM TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  LIGHT SNOW 
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY, WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATION LIKELY BY 
EVENING.

FOR THE COUNTIES OF ATLANTIC, CUMBERLAND, QUEEN ANNES, TALBOT AND 
CAROLINE, AS WELL AS DELAWARES KENT COUNTY,  SNOW AND SLEET 
ARE FORECAST TO FALL OVERNIGHT.  THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO 
FREEZING RAIN, THEN TO RAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE SNOW AND 
SLEET IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE TO 1 TO 2 INCHES AND A LIGHT ICE 
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE, AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR WEDNESDAY, 
ALLOWING FOR PLAIN RAIN.  THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES, 
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

IF YOU LIVE IN THE AREA AFFECTED BY THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, PAY 
SPECIAL ATTENTION TO UPDATED WEATHER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FOR 
THE LATEST INFORMATION.

AS THE STORM MOVES UP OVER CANADAS MARITIME PROVINCES ON WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT AND THURSDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO PULL MORE ARCTIC AIR DOWN INTO 
OUR REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANY SLUSH OR STANDING WATER ON 
ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL FREEZE QUICKLY. 

$$

NJZ012>015-019-020-026-027-132200-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.070213T2000Z-070215T0000Z/
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...
TRENTON...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST
505 AM EST TUE FEB 13 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE, LOCATED OVER ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING, WILL MOVE TO 
THE NORTHEAST.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER EASTERN 
KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT.  MEANWHILE, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.  THE 
SECOND LOW SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST, PASSING TO 
THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER TO 
MUCH OF NEW JERSEY FROM LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  LIGHT SNOW IS 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE COUNTIES OF MIDDLESEX, MERCER, INLAND MONMOUTH AND 
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON, SNOW AND SLEET ARE FORECAST TO FALL 
OVERNIGHT.  THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN BY 
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE TO 2 TO 4 
INCHES AND A LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  THE SAME 
SCENARIO IS ANTICIPATED FOR COASTAL MONMOUTH COUNTY, OCEAN COUNTY 
AND SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON COUNTY, EXCEPT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THERE 
WILL ONLY BE AN INCH OR TWO.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR A TIME ON 
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR PLAIN 
RAIN.  THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES, RESULTING IN LOCALIZED 
FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.  THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE 
BACK TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.

IF YOU LIVE IN THE AREA AFFECTED BY THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, PAY 
SPECIAL ATTENTION TO UPDATED WEATHER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FOR 
THE LATEST INFORMATION.

AS THE STORM MOVES UP OVER CANADAS MARITIME PROVINCES ON WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT AND THURSDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO PULL MORE ARCTIC AIR DOWN INTO 
OUR REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANY SLUSH OR STANDING WATER ON 
ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL FREEZE QUICKLY. 

$$

IOVINO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
943 PM EST SUN FEB 11 2007

.UPDATE /OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING PLACES AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING
FROM SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AN 850 MB
ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME WAA ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WAA IS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT AND WITH SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT, A SWATCH OF SC
CONTINUES TO ADVECT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. HAVE BEEN WATCHING THIS SC
DECK OVER THE PASS FEW HOURS AND IT IS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES
ATTM. HAVE UPDATED THE SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
EARLY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA, THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE THE CLOUDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS RUNNING A LITTLE LOWER THAN
FORECAST, THEREFORE MADE SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY LOOKED GOOD, HOWEVER DID ADJUST DOWN
BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN SOME AREAS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND
INITIALLY CLOUDLESS SKY. WINDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED SOME AS WELL.

AS THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY, THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES, WITH A FEW FLURRIES DOWN TOWARD
THE PHILADELPHIA AREA. THEREFORE MADE SOME TWEAKS REGARDING THIS.

REGARDING THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THIS IS
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A PRECIPITATION MESS FROM ABOUT THE I-95
CORRIDOR ON SOUTH AND EASTWARD. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING MILDER AIR INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE
CWA, AM A LITTLE WORRIED ABOUT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY
FROM ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WESTWARD. WE ARE EXPECTING
AN ARCTIC FRONTAL FEATURE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATER MONDAY,
WHICH WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO SEEP INTO THE REGION. THE MAJORITY OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE SIMPLY WANTS TO TRACK THE SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO
THE COAST, WHICH MAKES PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECASTING A NIGHTMARE.
INTERESTING HOW THE 12Z ECMWF SLIDES THE STORM TRACK A BIT FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, HOWEVER ITS THERMAL FIELD STILL PUMPS MILDER
AIR INTO A GOOD PART OF THE CWA COURTESY OF ABOUT A 50-KNOT
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. THE 18Z WRF LOOKS LIKE IT TUCKS THE
SURFACE LOW INLAND OF THE NEW JERSEY SHORE. WHERE THE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY SETS UP WILL GOVERNOR WHERE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS. NOT
REAL SURE IF ALONG THE COAST IS RIGHT AS ONE WOULD THINK AN
INCREASING THERMAL GRADIENT WOULD BE MORE ESTABLISHED OFF THE COAST,
BUT HOW FAR IS THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION. YET TO BE ANSWERED IS
HOW THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL HANG ON ACROSS THE AREA. IT LOOKS
LIKE NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR
SHOULD HANG FAIRLY TOUGH, WHICH INTRODUCES MORE CONCERN OF POSSIBLE
ICING AFTER A SNOWFALL. SOME TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY ACTUALLY
RISE TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE IS TIME TO IRON THAT OUT. BASED ON
MANY OF THE MILDER SOLUTIONS WE WOULD FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE
EXPANDING THE MENTION OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST TO INCLUDE PHILADELPHIA AND ITS NORTHWESTERN SUBURBS. THIS
MATCHES UP WITH WFOS CTP AND LWX. WE ALSO ADDED MORE OF A
TRANSITION ZONE IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT ATTM WE WILL NOT BRING THE PLAIN RAIN ANY
FARTHER NORTHWEST...YET.

WE WOULD LIKE TO STRESS THAT THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
DETAILS REGARDING THIS STORM, THEREFORE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE
LIKELY. EITHER WAY THOUGH, THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WITH OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES PROBABLY GETTING THE HEAVIEST SNOW. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE FULL 00Z MODEL RUNS AND MONDAYS
12Z SUITE DECIDES TO DO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION
CAREFULLY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY WE WILL HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THIS UPDATE. WE WILL BRIEF THE
NIGHT CREW ON OUR LATEST THOUGHTS AND GIVE THEM A CHANCE TO EXAMINE
ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE AND DETERMINE IF HEADLINES ARE TO BE HOISTED.
STAY TUNED WE WILL LET THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT RIDE FOR NOW AS IT GENERALLY REFLECTS OUR LATEST THINKING.

THAT IS ALL FOR NOW. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE
ISSUED IN A BIT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 227 PM EST SUN FEB 11 2007/

.OVERVIEW...
SWEET-HEART OF A STORM ON THE HORIZON, BUT THE MODELS ARE LIKE A BOX
OF CHOCOLATES, YOU NEVER KNOW WHAT YOUR GONNA GET

THERE IS PLENTY TO TALK ABOUT AND, CONSIDER WITH THIS FORECAST. SNOW
TO RAIN TO SNOW AND BECOMING ICY ON THE BACK SIDE OF IT PERHAPS. I
WONT SAY THAT I PREFER 115 INCHES OF SNOW(PARISH, NY)RATHER THAN
ICE, BUT I WOULD PREFER SOME SNOW TO ANY AMOUNT OF ICE. THE UPCOMING
SCENARIO IS A LITTLE WARMER AND FARTHER INLAND WITH A CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN BUT THEN BACK TO SNOW OR EVEN A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. NO
MATTER THE OUTCOME, LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IS GOING TO BE VERY
MESSY. QPF AMOUNTS, IF ALL RAIN, WOULD EVEN BE A PROBLEM WITH STREET
FLOODING WITH THE GROUND AS HARD AS A ROCK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A
DECK OF MAINLY LOW LVL MOISTURE NOSING INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO MONDAY. VERY STRONG PACKING BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY
WITH A COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SO WHAT ARE WE IN FOR? FIRST GLANCE
IS THAT WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE HEAVIER SNOW AXIS FARTHER WEST AND
NORTH THAN EARLIER THOUGHT AND GO WITH A MIX IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS
BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW THERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S EXCEPT LOWER TEENS NORTH. ON MONDAY HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING MOST
AREAS. LOW MONDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S AND
TUESDAY HIGH IN THE 20S. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW INITIALLY
THEN WE START TO SEE THE WARM UP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SOUNDING DATA
SHOWS PHL GETTING TO NEAR A PLUS FIVE AT THE SURFACE BY WED 12Z.
BEFORE THEN ABOUT 1/4 INCH QPF FALLS. IT WILL BE SNOW THEN WELL
START TO SEE A CHANGEOVER AT SOME POINT. THE QUESTION IS, SHOULD I
MAKE SUCH A DRAMATIC CHANGE FROM 10 INCHES IN PHL TO 1 INCH OF SNOW
NOW FORECAST BY THE GUIDANCE, OR REACH FOR ANOTHER PIECE OF
CHOCOLATE?

WITH STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY, WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WATCHES AT
THIS TIME BUT WILL BE RE-SENDING AN SPS. AS YOU KNOW, REAL ESTATE IS
LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION, WHEREAS STORMS ARE TRACK, TRACK, TRACK

THE GFS HAS THE LOW OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AT 12Z WED AND THE
NAM ON THE BEACH ON THE DELMARVA. BY 18Z BOTH MODELS MOVE THE LOW
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND BRING IT 48 TO 75 MILES OFF LONG BEACH
ISLAND. WHATS HOLDING UP THE PROCESS IS THE LOW OVER OHIO VALLEY IS
SLOW TO WEAKEN AND TRANSFER MOMENTUM TO THE COAST. IT FINALLY DOES
BY 06Z WED WITH 13 DAM HEIGHT FALLS ON THE GFS AND 90 DAM ON THE
NAM. 80H WINDS ARE 50 TO 60 KT DRIVING A 550 THICKNESS ALONG THE
COAST.

WHAT I AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT IS WHAT IMPACT WILL THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION HAVE ON THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS AS LIQUID? THAT
IN ITSELF COULD BE A PROBLEM FOR COMMUTERS ON WED AND EVEN THURSDAY
MORNING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, STILL ALOT TO CONSIDER BUT WE STILL
HAVE A COUPLE DAYS TO ARRIVE AT A SENSIBLE SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS A BREEZE BY COMPARISON. ONCE THE LOW
MOVES AWAY FROM OUR LATITUDE, IT BEGINS A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND IT TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE MOISTURE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE CWA WITH SOME SNOW
SHOWERS EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE AND THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WITH US FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

***SUMMARIZING THE UPCOMING EVENT***AT THIS TIME PREPARE FOR A VERY
MESSY PERIOD FROM LATE TUESDAY EVEN INTO THURSDAY MORNING(ICE OVR).
A WIDE RANGE OF WINTER LIKE ACCUMULATING SNOW/ICE TO A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN TOWARD THE SHORE. IN STORMS SUCH AS THIS...WHEREVER THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP...THE MOISTURE CONTENT IS VERY HIGH AND THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS THE CAPACITY TO HOLD MUCH MORE MOISTURE, CONSEQUENTLY
HEAVY SNOW IS USUALLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE SUNDAY 18Z TAFS INDICATE ANOTHER 24 HOURS OF VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS FOR OUR SITES. A BKN HIGH LAYER WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH BKN PREDOMINATING THIS
EVENING AND BACK TO SCT OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY
MORNING WITH BKN CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL BACK
AROUND TO SW BY THIS EVENING AND THEN GO BACK TO W OF NW TOWARDS
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DIRECTIONS NW OR W AT MOST LOCATIONS. AS THE SFC HIGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST, SFC WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO
SW EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN TEND TO VEER BACK TO NW WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH. THE SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BACK TO NEAR 20 KT
RANGE OVERNIGHT (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS), BUT SCA FLAG
WILL NOT BE ISSUED ATTM. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE
MONDAY AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND TO N THEN NE BEHIND IT
BY TUE MORNING. THE COLD PUSH AND STRONGER GRADIENT POINT TO SCA
FLAG BEING NEEDED EITHER VERY LATE MON NIGHT, OR MORE LIKELY, TUE
MORNING. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE TUE INTO WED AS
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM TRACKS FROM S TO N OVER THE WATERS. THE
12Z GFS IS SHOWING THE LOW PASSING MUCH CLOSER (THEN THE PREVIOUS
RUN) TO THE DE/NJ COASTAL AREAS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND
SIGNIFICANT SEA/WAVE ACTION FOR THE COAST TUE NIGHT AND WED. WE WILL
HAVE MORE SPECIFICS ONCE THE FINAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST IS
DETERMINED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GORSE
OVERVIEW/SHORT-LONG TERM...EBERWINE
AVIATION/MARINE...OHARA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
505 AM EST SUN FEB 11 2007

ANZ430-431-450>455-470-DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-
007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-121100-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE FROM 20 TO 40 NM-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
505 AM EST SUN FEB 11 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE SECOND LOW
SHOULD INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST, PASSING TO
THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE REACHING THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW TO
PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND FROM TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
OF THE STORM, THERE MAY BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME ON
TUESDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING
WEATHER SITUATION.  WINTER STORM WATCHES AND RELATED WARNINGS MAY BE
ISSUED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.