Wind Advisory 1, NWS New York, NY

000 
WWUS71 KOKX 200842
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
342 AM EST SAT JAN 20 2007

...STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING...

.STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE 
DEEPENING TODAY...AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FORM OVER
THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN THAT LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH LATER TODAY...AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-201700-
/O.EXT.KOKX.WI.Y.0001.070120T1400Z-070121T0600Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-
EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
342 AM EST SAT JAN 20 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
SUNDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM
EST SUNDAY. 

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE 
DEEPENING TODAY...AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FORM OVER
THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN THAT LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE STRONG
WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH LATER TODAY...AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

000 
WWUS71 KOKX 201632
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1132 AM EST SAT JAN 20 2007

...STRONG WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO 
DEEPEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE BETWEEN THE TWO IS RESULTING IN NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON UP TO NEAR 50 MPH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. 

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-210600-
/O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-070121T0600Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-
EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
1132 AM EST SAT JAN 20 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY. 

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO 
DEEPEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE BETWEEN THE TWO IS RESULTING IN NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON WIND WILL GUST UP TO NEAR 50 MPH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

JST

000 
WWUS71 KOKX 202029
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
329 PM EST SAT JAN 20 2007

...WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE BETWEEN THE TWO IS RESULTING IN
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-202130-
/O.CAN.KOKX.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-070121T0600Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-
EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
329 PM EST SAT JAN 20 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WHILE IT REMAINS WINDY ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS ARE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 

DRIVERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON
ELEVATED ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES.

$$

JST

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1100 AM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

.NEAR TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THIS WINTER SEASON OCCURRED ACROSS
MOST AREAS EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/2
INCH.

AS LOW LVL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE
PASSING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AN INCREASING W-NW
WIND GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP. SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO AVG AROUND 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH...LESS THAN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HOWEVER...AS LOW PRES RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NE OF MAINE
TONIGHT...WE WILL NEED TO EVALUATE THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR
SATURDAY.

BASED ON BUFKIT NAM HOURLY FCST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...LOW
LVL LAPSE RATES NEAR 10 DEGS C/KM COMBINED WITH LOW LVL RESIDUAL
MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR FORECASTS THROUGH 21Z OR 4
PM.

LOW PRESSURE BOMBS AS IT WORKS INTO NEW BRUNSWICK TONIGHT...WITH CAA
CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL DROP TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TONIGHT...GENERALLY 20S ACROSS REGION. STRATO-CU AND MID-DECK WILL
CONTINUE IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND MIXING FROM GUSTY WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM NOSE DIVING EVEN LOWER. WINDCHILLS WILL GENERALLY
RUN IN THE TEENS CITY/COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS INLAND.
&&

.SHORT TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG CAA ADVECTION AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 962-66 HPA LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA AND
HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL INCREASE WINDS AT THE TOP
OF THE MIXED LAYER TO 50 TO 55 KT. THE COMBINED PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND STRONG CAA BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY ALLOW MUCH OF
THESE WINDS TO MIX DOWN...WITH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
50 MPH POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE
A SOLID WIND ADVISORY EVENT FOR SATURDAY...BUT SINCE IT IS LATE 3RD
PERIOD...AFTER COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL JUST ADDRESS
IN SPS.

WITH STRONG CAA ON SAT AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR
-18C...TEMPS WILL MOST LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE
GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE. WINDCHILLS WILL HOLD IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS INLAND...AND TEENS CITY/COAST. A FEW SNOW
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE ARCTIC FRONT ON SAT. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW AND ARCTIC
FRONT...CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

DEEP CLOSED LOW FILLS SAT NIGHT OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO PA. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR SAT NIGHT AS CYCLONIC
FLOW LIFT NE WITH DEEP NW FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY WEAKEN SAT
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD FALL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREA...EXCEPT MAYBE LOWER
20S IN THE URBAN CENTERS. WITH WINDS REMAINING STRONG AND HEART OF
COLD AIRMASS FLOWING INTO THE REGION WINDCHILLS WILL RUN 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR...AND GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE CITY
AND COAST. WILL ADDRESS WIND CHILLS IN SPS AS WELL.

RIDGING SURFACE/ALOFT SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS. WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT ABOUT 950 HPA
LIMITING MIXING...950 HPA TEMPS OF AROUND -7C...AND NW FLOW...TEMPS
SHOULD STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S.
&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH STREAMS OF THE POLAR JET WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH BEING INJECTED WITH SUB TROP MOISTURE AND SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES. THE GFS DOES NOT PHASE THE TWO STREAMS DURING THE
PERIOD...THUS A COLD...DRY FORECAST...WITH SEVERAL NEAR MISSES AS
THE STORM TRACK STAYS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE 12Z ECMWF THOUGH IS
AT ODD WITH THE GFS...ALLOWING FOR PHASING OF THE TWO BRANCHES WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
DETAILS FOR SUCH A SCENARIO ARE SKETCHY AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDS IN
THE MODELS NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE ONE SAFE BET THOUGH IS FOR UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS ARND 4 THSD FT WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBY WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
12Z SAT. CIGS MIGHT BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
THE AREA UNTIL ARND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN OPERATIONAL CONCERN
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. AN INCREASING W-NW WIND FLOW BETWEEN 280
AND 300 DEGS WILL OCCUR. SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 20 TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT THROUGH THIS
AFTN. HIGHER WINDS...SUSTAINED 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45 KT
ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY EAST OF CAPE COD TODAY...AS ENERGY
FROM A NRN STREAM S/W COMBINES WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE WINDS BECOMING LIKELY
ACROSS ALL WATERS. GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT
EVENING. THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30
AND 35 KT ON ALL WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. TO KEEP THE
HEADLINES AS SIMPLE AS POSSIBLE...HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH GALES RIGHT
OFF THE BAT FOR ALL WATERS. THESE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SAT
NIGHT.

ONCE THE STRONG CAA KICKS IN TONIGHT...CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY ON THE OCEAN AND SOUND. THIS
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE ONLY
CONDITION THAT MAY FALL SHORT IS THE WATER TEMPERATURE WHICH NEEDS
TO BE 45F OR LESS. OCEAN WATER TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 40S
AND THE SOUND IS MID 40S. OTHER WIND/WAVE/AIR TEMP FACTORS SHOULD BE
THERE. THINKING THAT THE WATER TEMPS MAY COME DOWN IN THE STRONG CAA
FLOW...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT SINCE WATER TAKES LONGER TO COOL SO
WILL ONLY INCLUDE CHANCE OF LGT FRZG SPRAY AT THIS TIME.

THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS LOW WATER PROBLEMS BEGINNING WITH THE
LOW TIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH SAT...DUE TO THE
STRONG AND PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WINDS...COMBINED WITH LOW
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DUE TO THE NEW MOON. ASTRO TIDES AND FCST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE DEPARTURES OF 1.5 TO 2 FT
BELOW MLLW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN 2.5 TO 3.5 FT NEGATIVE
DEPARTURES ON SATURDAY. HAVE POSTED LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR ALL
WATERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SAT EVENING.

MWS WILL BE ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE VARIOUS MARINE ISSUES INCLUDING
THE WIND...FREEZING SPRAY AND LOW WATER CONCERNS.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK OVER NEW ENGLAND.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY EXPECTING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF THIS
MORNING WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES...AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. THROUGH FRI
MORNING.
&&

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-350-353-355.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-350-353-
     355.
&&

SHORT TERM: GC
LONG TERM: MS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
545 AM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-201045-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-
EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
545 AM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A BURST OF WINTRY WEATHER THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WILL TURN TO
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...AND COASTAL
CONNECTICUT THIS MORNING WITH A SLUSHY COATING POSSIBLE ON MAINLY
GRASSY SURFACES.

ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND INTERIOR CONNECTICUT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING AT OR
BELOW FREEZING WILL ALLOW FOR A DUSTING TO POSSIBLY AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL TO ACCUMULATE ON MOST SURFACES. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO
USE CAUTION TRAVELING IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING AS ICY OR AT
LEAST SLUSHY CONDITIONS ON ROADWAYS WILL BE LIKELY...WITH
UNTREATED ELEVATED ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES BEING THE MOST
TREACHEROUS.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO USHER COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WINDS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
20S TONIGHT WILL HAVE WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS
AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN GREATLY ON SATURDAY AS INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE STALLS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL INCREASE NORTHWEST WINDS TO
25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE TYPES OF WINDS MAY DOWN
WEAK TREES AND BRANCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME POWER OUTAGES. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER TWENTIES AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY...WITH
WIND CHILLS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO ALL DAY.

THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE COMBINED BRISK
WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE FOR BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. WIND
CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND CONNECTICUT...0 TO 5 BELOW ZERO ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND 0 TO 5 ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE FIVE
BOROUGHS OF NEW YORK CITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING FOR SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.

ANZ330-335-338-350-353-355-201045-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
545 AM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EST
SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS...INCLUDING NEW YORK HARBOR AND LONG ISLAND SOUND...DURING
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG WINDS...COLD TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
OCEAN SEAS OF 5 TO 9 FEET WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY LATE TONIGHT.

THE LONG PERIOD OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO CAUSE BLOW OUT
TIDES. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF AROUND 2 FEET BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE LOW WATER PROBLEMS
AROUND THE TIMES OF LOW TIDE. OWNERS OF BOATS STILL IN THE WATER
SHOULD ENSURE THAT ENOUGH SLACK IS LEFT IN TIE DOWNS TO ALLOW FOR
THE LOW WATER CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

GALES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHEN
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO 45 KT.

THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG WINDS...COLD TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
OCEAN SEAS OF 5 TO 9 FEET WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

DEPARTURES OF 2 TO 3 FEET BELOW NORMAL ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE LOW WATER PROBLEMS AROUND THE TIMES OF LOW TIDE.
OWNERS OF BOATS STILL IN THE WATER SHOULD ENSURE THAT ENOUGH
SLACK IS LEFT IN TIE DOWNS TO ALLOW FOR THE LOW WATER CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1200 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-192000-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-
EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
1200 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

...STRONG WINDS AND LOW WIND CHILL VALUES EXPECTED FOR THE START
OF THE WEEKEND...

THE LOW WHICH BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND FINALLY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO USHER COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WINDS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE 20S TONIGHT WILL HAVE WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER
TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY AS INTENSE LOW
PRESSURE STALLS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL INCREASE NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25
TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE TYPES OF WINDS MAY DOWN WEAK TREES
AND BRANCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME POWER OUTAGES. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER TWENTIES AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY...WITH
WIND CHILLS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO ALL DAY.

THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE COMBINED BRISK
WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE FOR BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. WIND
CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND CONNECTICUT...0 TO 5 BELOW ZERO ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND 0 TO 5 ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE FIVE
BOROUGHS OF NEW YORK CITY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEB
SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES.

MPS