Red Flag Warning 19, NWS Missoula, MT

000 
WWUS85 KMSO 190921
RFWMSO

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
321 AM MDT SUN AUG 19 2007

MTZ108-109-191800-
/O.CON.KMSO.FW.W.0019.070819T1600Z-070819T2100Z/
EAST LOLO-BITTERROOT-
321 AM MDT SUN AUG 19 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS
THE EAST LOLO...BITTERROOT (ZONES 108 AND 109)...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON. 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM MDT TODAY.

STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY WITH EARLY AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES DIPPING INTO THE 20S. SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO OFFSET THE
NEGATIVE IMPACT OF WIND BY MID-AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
ALSO COME INTO THE PICTURE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

MTZ110-111-191800-
/O.CON.KMSO.FW.W.0019.070819T1600Z-070820T0300Z/
DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD-EAST BEAVERHEAD-
321 AM MDT SUN AUG 19 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS
THE DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD...EAST BEAVERHEAD (ZONES 110 AND 111)...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
9 PM MDT THIS EVENING. 

STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH EARLY AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
DIPPING INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

$$

000 
WWUS85 KMSO 192108
RFWMSO

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
308 PM MDT SUN AUG 19 2007

MTZ108-109-192215-
/O.EXP.KMSO.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-070819T2100Z/
EAST LOLO-BITTERROOT-
308 PM MDT SUN AUG 19 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE EAST LOLO...BITTERROOT...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES WILL
BEGIN RISING AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE BITTERROOT AND EAST LOLO
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. 

$$

MTZ110-111-200300-
/O.CON.KMSO.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-070820T0300Z/
DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD-EAST BEAVERHEAD-
308 PM MDT SUN AUG 19 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DEERLODGE/WEST
BEAVERHEAD...EAST BEAVERHEAD...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
DEERLODGE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING REPORTED.
HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS ARE OVERCOMING THE HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND
KEEPING THE FIRES VERY ACTIVE. SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THE RED
FLAG WARNING THROUGH THE EVENING. 

$$

000 
WWUS85 KMSO 200239
RFWMSO

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
839 PM MDT SUN AUG 19 2007

MTZ110-111-200345-
/O.CAN.KMSO.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-070820T0300Z/
DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD-EAST BEAVERHEAD-
839 PM MDT SUN AUG 19 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE DEERLODGE/WEST
BEAVERHEAD...EAST BEAVERHEAD...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...RHS HAVE COME UP
ENOUGH TO TAKE THE BEAVERHEAD REGION OUT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
644 PM MDT SAT AUG 18 2007

.UPDATE...UPDATED SMOKE WORDING FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IN
THE FORECAST. ALSO CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR FWX 110 AS
RHS HAVE REACHED ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT VISIBILITIES INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY PRE-FRONTAL WINDS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE APPROPRIATE TAFS AND TWEBS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM MDT SAT AUG 18 2007/

DISCUSSION...APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS EJECTING ENERGY AHEAD OF
IT SETTING OFF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THIS HOUR. AT THIS TIME...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
BEAVERHEAD DEER LODGE AREA...HOWEVER SOME ISOLATED STORMS AS FAR
NORTH AS SEELEY LAKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. SURFACE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS UP NOT ALLOWING INVERSIONS TO SET UP AS STRONG...EXCEPT IN
DEEPER VALLEYS. THE SMOKE SHOULD ALSO BE DIMINISHED A BIT WITH
INCREASED UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY DRAGGING A TROUGH THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST SUNDAY. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING A BIT...NOT
SPREADING THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND
WESTERN MONTANA UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THAT SAID...WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING AND INTERACT WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE TO CREATE SOME CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT KEEPING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ON WEST FACING SLOPES.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO
WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AS A JET PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH ONLY A FEW VERY WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS. HAVE DRIED
OUT MOST OF THE PERIODS AND KEPT A SLOW WARMING TREND EACH DAY.

FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WINDS AND LOWER
HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CLEARWATER/NEZ PERCE AND CENTRAL MONTANA. THEREFORE THE RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM.

THE TIMING OF THE INCREASED MOISTURE HAS SLOWED SOME FOR SUNDAY
WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE WINDS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
IN THE MID MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE POOR RECOVERIES TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING UP
OVERNIGHT...HAVE OPTED TO ADD THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CLEARWATER/NEZ PERCE AND THE BITTERROOT...SEELEY LAKE AND GLACIER
PARK ZONES TO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY WITH A START TIME
OF 10 AM MDT. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH (GTFRFWMSO) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR BITTERROOT-EAST
     LOLO-SALISH AND KOOTENAI RESERVATION-WEST LOLO.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD-EAST BEAVERHEAD.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR BITTERROOT-EAST LOLO-FLATHEAD/GLACIER PARK.

ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLEARWATER/NEZ
     PERCE.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CLEARWATER/NEZ PERCE.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...STEGEMILLER
PREVIOUS...MEAD/KOLATA