Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Morristown, TN

000 
WWUS54 KMRX 040347
SVSMRX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1147 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

TNC009-019-029-091-105-155-163-171-179-VAC167-191-520-040430-
/O.CON.KMRX.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-070404T0430Z/
LOUDON TN-WASHINGTON TN-SULLIVAN TN-JOHNSON TN-UNICOI TN-
CITY OF BRISTOL VA-WASHINGTON VA-RUSSELL VA-BLOUNT TN-COCKE TN-
SEVIER TN-CARTER TN-
1147 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 AM EDT
FOR CARTER...SEVIER...SOUTHERN COCKE...BLOUNT...RUSSELL...
WASHINGTON...CENTRAL CITY OF BRISTOL...UNICOI...JOHNSON...SULLIVAN...
WASHINGTON AND LOUDON COUNTIES...

AT 1143 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CLEVELAND TO LIBERTY TO LOUDON...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF LEBANON TO 11 MILES WEST OF ERWIN TO
LOUDON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ROSEDALE...WATAUGA...UNICOI AND ROCKY FORK BY 1155 PM EDT...
  WALLAND...SOUTH HOLSTON DAM...PIGEON FORGE AND HUNTER BY MIDNIGHT
  EDT...
  SADIE AND LIMESTONE COVE BY 1205 AM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. SEEK 
SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 3616 8202 3559 8386 3569 8453 3589 8432
      3580 8415 3588 8400 3584 8385 3600 8364
      3604 8366 3583 8327 3599 8261 3646 8270
      3660 8260 3660 8229 3688 8240 3704 8216
      3702 8180 3702 8180 3693 8183 3663 8161

$$

DGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
925 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...PREFRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES JUST W OF MRX CWA.
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED PRESSURE COUPLET DROPPING SE INTO TROUGH FROM
KY. EXPECT SCT POSSIBLE SVR CONVECTIVE THIS EVENING ALONG CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. DECENT INSTABILTY AXIS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL SSW JET
BUILD INTO THE AREA FM THE SW AROUND MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO CATEGORICAL OVERNIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING FRONT. UPDATE TO ADD TOR WATCH #117 FOR SW AREAS. TSTM WATCH
PSBL SOON NE AREAS. SON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A LINE OF CONVECTION
HAS FORMED WILL WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE MRX CWA THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.  STRONGEST LIS...CAPE ETC WILL BE WEST OF OUR
AREA.  HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS WELL AS
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO CONTINUE THE CONVECTION
THROUGH OUR AREA.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS.
AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED TO NOTIFY OF THE POTENTIAL.  ADDITIONALLY...
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FAIRLY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE MAINLY EASTERN ZONES IN THE MORNING.  BEHIND THE FRONT...
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING IN MUCH COOLER AIR.  WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

LONG TERM...(WED NIGHT THROUGH TUES)...UPPER LOW FORECAST TO SHIFT
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...THEN REMAIN IN THE NEW ENGLAND VICINITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR
REGION DURING THIS TIME.  ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW MAY INCREASE CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BUT APPEARS ANY PRECIP WILL STAY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
OTHER PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW SHOULD
HAVE THE MOST IMPACT FURTHER NORTH. WHILE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THESE SHORT WAVE FEATURES IN UNCERTAIN...AND CERTAINLY CAN NOT RULE
OUT POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS AT SOME POINT ESPECIALLY
MOUNTAINS AND NORTH...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO
INTRODUCE TO THE FORECAST SO WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A BIT OF A WARM UP SHOULD BEGIN ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW DEPARTS AND COLD ADVECTION ENDS. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION BY TUESDAY...SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN  57  65  38  60  33 /  70  20   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  54  63  36  55  31 /  70  20  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN  53  62  32  56  30 /  70  20  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN  52  59  31  51  27 /  70  40  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

MJB/LDW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
342 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-040745-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
342 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2007 /242 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER WEST AND MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING...BETWEEN
6 PM AND MIDNIGHT EDT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS IS EXPECTED
TO BE LARGE HAIL...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER NETWORK ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
620 PM EDT TUE APR 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             7 N PIKEVILLE           35.71N 85.20W
04/03/2007  E1.00 INCH       BLEDSOE            TN   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT.

0550 PM     HAIL             4 N PIKEVILLE           35.66N 85.20W
04/03/2007  E1.00 INCH       BLEDSOE            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL 41/2 MILES NORTH OF
            PIKEVILLE, TN.

&&

CAC