Severe Thunderstorm Warning 351, NWS Twin Cities, MN

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 180138
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
838 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

MNC097-180215-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0351.000000T0000Z-070918T0215Z/
MORRISON MN-
838 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR MORRISON COUNTY...

AT 837 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST
OF LITTLE FALLS...OR ABOUT 29 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALBANY...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE SOBIESKI...LITTLE FALLS AND
HARDING.

LAT...LON 4616 9429 4616 9392 4615 9392 4585 9443
      4599 9456 4606 9446 4607 9446 4618 9432
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 223DEG 35KT 4603 9431

$$

JPR

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 180155
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
855 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

MNC097-180205-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0351.000000T0000Z-070918T0215Z/
MORRISON MN-
855 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MORRISON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

RADAR INDICATED THAT THE STORM HAD WEAKENED TO BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4616 9429 4616 9392 4615 9392 4585 9443
      4599 9456 4606 9446 4607 9446 4618 9432
TIME...MOT...LOC 0155Z 223DEG 35KT 4615 9415

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
711 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR 00Z TAFS/
WEATHER TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOCUS WARM
FRONT EXTENDS FROM APPROX KAXN-KFCM-KRGK. ITS PROGRESS HAS SLOWED
IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO AND IT APPEARS TO HAVE SLIPPED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS IN THE KMSP AREA TO RETURN
TO A 130-150 DIRECTION. THIS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.

MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS ISSUANCE IS THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND
COVERAGE. STARTING TO SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MN AND INTO SOUTHEAST SODAK WHICH IS RAPIDLY MOVING
NORTHEAST. SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELD HAS INCREASED LAST HOUR OR 2.
KRWF AND KAXN AT RISK FROM THE START WITH KSTC ON THE EASTERN FRINGE BUT
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SCATTERED FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
2...BEFORE CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT INCREASE /APPROX
BETWEEN 01-03Z/. ONCE STORMS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CUT
VISIBILITY SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS TO BE GOING BY
LATE EVENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. EASTWARD PROGRESS OF
THE LINE LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT SLOW. TIMING THE ACTIVITY INTO KMSP
AND KRNH TROUBLESOME BUT EXPECT IT WILL BE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. THE
HAIL AND WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE AND MAY HAVE INCREASED BY THIS
TIME. OTHER CONCERN IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OUTSIDE OF STORMS. LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO NEAR 50 KTS AT 2 KFT...ESPECIALLY OVER
KRWF/KMSP/KRNH AND THEN KEAU LATER ON.

COLD FRONT TAKES IT/S TIME MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. WITH
VERY MOIST AIR CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA PERIODS OF RAIN
ARE EXPECTED FROM EARLY MORNING THROUGH . LOW CIGS AND REDUCED
VIS ALSO LIKELY. ..MDB..

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2007/

DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT HAS SURGED TO NEAR A KAQP-KSYN LINE AS OF 20Z...WITH
MOST OF ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUING TO PUSH NORTH. STILL LOTS
OF SBCIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN BUT WEAKENING...THOUGH THE
WEAKENING IS WELL SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. RUC TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
THE STRONG THETA E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH THIS
EVENING...AND THE TREND OF LESS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT
HAS BEEN IN THE MODELS SINCE YESTERDAY..WILL BE SPREADING OVER THE
CWA AT LEAST FOR THIS EVENING. CHANCE OF SVR THIS EVENING STILL
POSSIBLE NORTH OF KNCB TO KSTC BUT CAP IS STILL STRONG IN THAT
AREA. LOW LEVEL JET STILL CRANKS UP LATER TONIGHT AND CHANCE OF
SEVERE WILL PROBABLY INCREASE FROM SW INTO CENTRAL MN ALONG THE
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS AND IN AREA OF THICKNESS DIFLUENCE IN
SAME AREA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LIKELY ON
TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES ALONG WITH STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.

NEXT CHANCE OF STORMS WITH RETURNING WARM FRONT LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY BUT BEST SURGE OF INSTABILITY AIMED AT NORTHERN MN.
BASED ON TODAYS HOT PROD...HAVE RAISED TEMPS IN SOUTHERN MN FOR
FRIDAY AHEAD OF SLOWING COLD FRONT. WILL GO WITH MID 80S FOR NOW
BUT THAT MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

MDB/JPR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
135 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
181200-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
135 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THIS EVENING. VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOW OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER
THE OUTLOOK AREA. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE OVER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

THERE STILL EXISTS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO NEAR THE WARM
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE
BEST LOCATION FOR A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO WOULD BE
OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...NORTH OF A LINE FROM BENSON TO ST
CLOUD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY OVER
THIS SAME AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
AS WELL AS LOWLAND AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
824 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

MNZ043-180230-
MORRISON-
824 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MORRISON COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM
CDT...

AT 820 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LITTLE FALLS...OR 19 MILES
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN MORRISON COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.