Severe Thunderstorm Warning 324, NWS Twin Cities, MN

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 220023
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
721 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

MNC013-220031-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0324.000000T0000Z-070822T0100Z/
BLUE EARTH MN-
721 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN BLUE EARTH 
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY. 
STAY ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL WARNINGS THROUGH THE EVENING.

LAT...LON 4435 9357 4420 9363 4417 9353 4418 9341
      4421 9329 4429 9319 4447 9324 4446 9334
      4443 9344

$$

MNC079-131-161-220100-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0324.000000T0000Z-070822T0100Z/
LE SUEUR MN-RICE MN-WASECA MN-
721 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT 
FOR NORTHERN WASECA...RICE AND LE SUEUR COUNTIES...

AT 718 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE TWO SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS...BOTH CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.  THE 
STRONGER STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF KILKENNY...OR ABOUT 
7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONTGOMERY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. 
THE OTHER STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WATERVILLE AND MOVING EAST AT 45 
MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE WARSAW...BRIDGEWATER...
MORRISTOWN...KILKENNY...FARIBAULT...AND INTERSTATE 35 IN RICE COUNTY.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4435 9357 4420 9363 4417 9353 4418 9341
      4421 9329 4429 9319 4447 9324 4446 9334
      4443 9344

$$

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 220034
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
732 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

MNC079-161-220042-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0324.000000T0000Z-070822T0100Z/
LE SUEUR MN-WASECA MN-
732 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN WASECA AND LE SUEUR 
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
COUNTIES. REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AS THUNDERSTORMS 
CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP THIS EVENING.

LAT...LON 4436 9344 4422 9346 4420 9323 4419 9313
      4438 9305 4447 9306 4447 9324 4445 9334
      4442 9337

$$

MNC131-220100-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0324.000000T0000Z-070822T0100Z/
RICE MN-
732 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR RICE COUNTY...

AT 731 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE TWO SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS...BOTH CAPABLE OF NOW PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL.  ONE 
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BRIDGEWATER...OR ABOUT OVER NORTHFIELD...AND 
MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. ANOTHER WAS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF 
THE COUNTY 3 MILES SOUTH OF WARSAW AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. AT 718 
PM CDT...DIME SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN ELYSIAN WITH THIS STORM.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE WARSAW...RUSKIN...
BRIDGEWATER...NORTHFIELD...NERSTRAND...MORRISTOWN...FARIBAULT AND
DUNDAS.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4436 9344 4422 9346 4420 9323 4419 9313
      4438 9305 4447 9306 4447 9324 4445 9334
      4442 9337

$$

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 220043
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
742 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

MNC131-220052-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0324.000000T0000Z-070822T0100Z/
RICE MN-
742 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR RICE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED THAT THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE 
WARNING HAVE WEAKENED TO BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THUS THE WARNING HAS 
BEEN CANCELLED. MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF 
THE EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT. STAY ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL 
WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 4436 9344 4422 9346 4420 9323 4419 9313
      4438 9305 4447 9306 4447 9324 4445 9334
      4442 9337

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
338 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THURSDAY
WITH ACTIVE AND WET CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR SOME AREAS. UPPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CROSSING THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON KICKING OFF
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. SFC WARM FRONT REMAINS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IOWA AT 20Z.
MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OVER IOWA THIS
EVENING WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAXIMIZES IN CONJUNCTION
WITH BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND STRONG THICKNESS
DIFFLUENCE. 1000-300 MB THICKNESS ORIENTATION SHOWS THAT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD...BUT THE BEST
COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD STAY JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH LATE THIS
EVENING IN ANTICIPATION NORTHERN FRINGE OF STRONG CONVECTION
IMPACTING THOSE AREAS. WILL KEEP CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT BECAUSE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS DENSE FOG. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SETTLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS FAVORING A
SOUTHEAST COMPONENT. WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO BE
IN PLACE EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF
FOG IN THE GRIDS AND WILL ALERT EVENING SHIFT TO POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST PUSHING WARM FRONT BACK
TOWARDS THE AREA. BETTER INSTABILITY MOVES FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO
THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING ALLOWING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWER/THUNDER DEVELOPMENT. MAIN FOCUS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WHERE LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAXIMIZE
WITH ATTENDANT FN VECTOR DIVERGENCE IN ZONE OF DIFFLUENT THICKNESS.
THUS EXPECT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA ONCE AGAIN. WILL LIKELY NEED TO HAVE
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER SFC LOW
MOVES ACROSS IOWA FRIDAY...BUT BOUNDARY MAY HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SLIP A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO EARLY THURSDAY CONVECTION. SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RISK OF RAIN...BUT BULK OF
ACTIVITY APPEARS FURTHER SOUTH AT THIS TIME.

PLEASANT WEATHER LOOKS TO FINALLY RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS AND CRESTS OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND SFC LOW PRESSURE BUILDS
OFF TO THE WEST ONCE AGAIN GOING INTO MONDAY. SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL
BRING HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS BACK INTO THE CWA THOUGH MONDAY.
PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
LOW BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGH

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SURFACE TROF CURRENTLY ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER WILL CONTINUE MOVING
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE. N TO NW WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF AT KMSP FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
GOING NEARLY CALM LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR
KSTC WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL MN. FLOW TURNS ESE OVER
FAR WESTERN MN AS YET ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES. CLEARING
OF CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET IS OCCURRING AT A PRETTY GOOD PACE FOR
THE MN TAF SITES WITH KMSP BEING THE LAST. THE WI SITES EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TWO CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE.
THE FIRST WILL BE THE REESTABLISHMENT OF THE WARM FRONT OVER IA
THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD FOCUS TSRA SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SECOND CONCERN IS DENSE FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. INDICATED ALL BUT
KMSP AS HAVING CHANCES FOR CEILINGS BELOW 1000 AND VISIBILITIES
BELOW 1 MILE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN-STEELE-WASECA
     COUNTY(IES).

WI...NONE.
&&

MDB/RAH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
416 AM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
220930-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
416 AM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MEDFORD TO FAIRMONT
LINE. DUE TO THE HIGHLY SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...ANY PROLONGED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING FLASH FLOODING.

IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA MAY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE WORK
WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND RESULTANT FLOODING A CONTINUED THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...SPOTTERS
AND COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS ARE URGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.