Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WWUS54 KMOB 131904
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
202 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2007

ALC003-131915-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-070513T1915Z/
BALDWIN AL-
202 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN BALDWIN COUNTY...

AT 200 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR MONTROSE AND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. ANOTHER 
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF 
LOXLEY.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LOXLEY...SILVERHILL...7 MILES WEST OF ROBERTSDALE AND 8 MILES WEST
  OF ROSINTON BY 215 PM CDT...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3026 8770 3061 8765 3070 8775 3054 8798

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.UPDATE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...ADJUSTED POPS AND BROUGHT THE
SCATTERED COVERAGES OF LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS A BIT
FARTHER WEST OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BASED ON POTENTIAL OF A POOLING
OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF WEAK MIDLEVEL SHEAR AXIS WORKING GRADUALLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MS AND SOUTHERN AL.  THE SHEAR AXIS WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH CONVECTION
DIMINISHING IN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS.  WE EXPECT THE STORMS
TO INITIATE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND GIVEN
MIDLEVEL DRY AIR WORKING SOUTH OVER THE 850-700 MB MOISTURE A FEW
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE (DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD...OTHER THAN THE LIGHTNING). THE
LIGHTNING RATES WILL AGAIN BE IMPRESSIVE IN STRONGER STORMS.

AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE FOLKS WORKING THE BEULAH FIRE FROM
ESCAMBIA COUNTY EMA AND THE FLORIDA DIVISION OF FORESTRY...THEY
REPORT QUITE A BIT OF SMOKE IS BEING TRANSPORTED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY FLORIDA. THEY ALSO REPORT THE WILDFIRE
IS 80 PERCENT CONTAINED AT THIS TIME.  THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE
NIGHT OF LINGERING SMOKE MIXED WITH FOG MEANS WE SHOULD PROBABLY
LEAVE THE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WE
EXTENDED IT UNTIL 7 AM CDT. WE LEFT EXTREME SOUTHEAST BALDWIN COUNTY
IN THE ADVISORY GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION OF THE SMOKE BEING JUST
ACROSS THE PERDIDO RIVER AND A POTENTIAL FOR THE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS GOING MORE NORTHEASTERLY LATER TONIGHT. WE WILL TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT THE SITUATION BEFORE THE 4 PM ISSUANCE AND MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AS NECESSARY ON THE FULL AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.UPDATED POINT TEMPS/POPS...

MOBILE 		91 66 84 67 / 30 30 30 30
PENSACOLA 	91 68 80 65 / 40 30 30 30
DESTIN 		86 69 83 70 / 40 30 40 30
EVERGREEN 	90 63 83 59 / 20 20 20 20
WAYNESBORO 	92 58 87 62 / 20 10 20 30
CAMDEN 		92 62 85 60 / 20 10 20 20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AND LOWER BALDWIN.

FL...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AND COASTAL ESCAMBIA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

13/CULLEN
05/GARMON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
100 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2007

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-
141200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
MOBILE BAY-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
GEORGE-GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
100 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS TO 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD.  THE STORMS
WILL ALSO PRODUCE FREQUENT DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES.  PERSONS IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THEIR AREA.  THE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL CREATE A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW...RESULTING
IN INCREASED SEAS AND MAKING BOATING FOR SMALL CRAFT HAZARDOUS.
THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO
MISSISSIPPI TO DESTIN FLORIDA.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO
60 MPH...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE BRIEF DURATION AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT...ACTIVATION OF STORM
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS SHOULD IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.