Alert archive / Alabama / Flash Flood Watches in 2007

Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Mobile, AL

October 21, 20078 counties in Alabama; 5 counties in Mississippi

NWS Mobile, AL issued this flash flood watch at Oct 21, 2007, 3:52 PM CDT for 8 counties in Alabama; 5 counties in Mississippi. It took effect at Oct 21, 2007, 6:31 PM CDT. It was in force for 33 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 21, 2007, 3:52 PM CDT (20:52 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 21, 2007, 6:31 PM CDT
Expired
Oct 23, 2007, 3:52 AM CDT
In force
33 hr
Issued by
NWS Mobile, AL
Flood severity
None

Counties Choctaw County, AL, Clarke County, AL, Conecuh County, AL, Covington County, AL, Escambia County, AL, Monroe County, AL, Washington County, AL, Wilcox County, AL, George County, MS, Greene County, MS, Perry County, MS, Stone County, MS, Wayne County, MS

The radar

The Mobile radar (KMOB), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 208 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Slidell Radar S, LA at 12:00Z on 2007-10-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Slidell Radar S, LA at 12:00Z on 2007-10-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 93 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1073 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
93 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
86 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS64 KMOB 212052
FFAMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
352 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

.SATURATED GROUND AND ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING FLOODING
CONDITIONS TO STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ALZ051>056-059-061>064-FLZ001>004-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-220500-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FF.A.0002.071022T0000Z-071023T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-ESCAMBIA-
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...ATMORE...
BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...
TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...
SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA...
FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...
MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...WAYNESBORO...
RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...
WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
352 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA 
  AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
  ALABAMA...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...ESCAMBIA...LOWER 
  BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER 
  MOBILE...WASHINGTON AND WILCOX. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...COASTAL 
  ESCAMBIA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA AND INLAND 
  SANTA ROSA. IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...GREENE...
  PERRY...STONE AND WAYNE.

* THROUGH MONDAY EVENING

* A STRONG WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GULF WILL BRING PERIODS OF
  HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING TO SATURATED GROUND IN SOUTHEAST
  MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA LATE
  TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
  RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE
  BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD AROUND 25 MPH. THIS ANTICIPATED HEAVY
  RAINFALL WILL BRING FLOODING CONDITIONS TO STREAMS AND POOR
  DRAINAGE AREAS. YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE IS CLOSELY
  MONITORING THIS SITUATION AS IT UNFOLDS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
BE ISSUED. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.

$$
7 follow-up statements
000 
WGUS64 KMOB 212331 AAA
FFAMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
631 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

.ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING FLOODING CONDITIONS
TO STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY SERIOUS OVER
THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN AND SATURATED THE GROUND.

ALZ060-FLZ005-006-220745-
/O.EXB.KMOB.FF.A.0002.071022T0000Z-071023T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COVINGTON-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDALUSIA...OPP...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...
FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...
VALPARAISO
631 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA 
  AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
  SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...COVINGTON. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
  COASTAL OKALOOSA AND INLAND OKALOOSA.

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GULF WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
  THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
  THE WEST AND LATER MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
  THESE FEATURES WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
  FLOODING OF STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
  MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH
  MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY SERIOUS OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
  PANHANDLE WHERE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN AND SATURATED THE
  GROUND. YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE IS CLOSELY
  MONITORING THIS SITUATION AS IT UNFOLDS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS BE ISSUED. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL
MEDIA FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

$$

ALZ051>056-059-061>064-FLZ001>004-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-220745-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FF.A.0002.071022T0000Z-071023T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-ESCAMBIA-
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...ATMORE...
BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...
TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...
SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA...
FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...
MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...WAYNESBORO...
RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...
WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
631 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST 
  MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ALABAMA...
  CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER 
  MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON 
  AND WILCOX. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL 
  SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. IN 
  SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE AND 
  WAYNE.

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GULF WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
  THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
  THE WEST AND LATER MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
  THESE FEATURES WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
  FLOODING OF STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
  MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH
  MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY SERIOUS OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
  PANHANDLE WHERE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN AND SATURATED THE
  GROUND. YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE IS CLOSELY
  MONITORING THIS SITUATION AS IT UNFOLDS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS BE ISSUED. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL
MEDIA FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

$$
000 
WGUS64 KMOB 220840
FFAMOB

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
340 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA
AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

.ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING FLOODING
CONDITIONS TO STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
SERIOUS OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE LARGE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN AND SATURATED THE GROUND.

ALZ051>056-059>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-221645-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-071023T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-ESCAMBIA-
COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...ATMORE...
BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...
BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...
FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA...
FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...
MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...
WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...
EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...
NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
340 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST 
  MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ALABAMA...
  CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...LOWER 
  BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER 
  MOBILE...WASHINGTON AND WILCOX. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...COASTAL 
  ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND 
  ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. IN SOUTHEAST 
  MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE AND WAYNE.

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GULF WILL MOVE NORTHWARD 
  ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT 
  APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND LATER MOVES THROUGH THE REGION 
  EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING PERIODS OF 
  HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING OF STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE 
  AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND 
  NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY 
  SERIOUS OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE LARGE 
  AMOUNTS OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN AND SATURATED THE GROUND. YOUR 
  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE IS CLOSELY MONITORING THIS 
  SITUATION AS IT UNFOLDS. 

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS BE ISSUED. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL
MEDIA FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

$$
000 
WGUS64 KMOB 221613
FFAMOB

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1113 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

.ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAINS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WARRANT THE
CONTINUATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD BRING RAPID FLOODING CONDITIONS TO STREAMS
AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY SERIOUS OVER THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN
AND THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED.

ALZ051>056-059>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-222200-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-071023T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-ESCAMBIA-
COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...ATMORE...
BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...
BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...
FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA...
FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...
MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...
WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...
EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...
NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
1113 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST 
  MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ALABAMA...
  CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...LOWER 
  BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER 
  MOBILE...WASHINGTON AND WILCOX. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...COASTAL 
  ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND 
  ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. IN SOUTHEAST 
  MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE AND WAYNE.

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A DEEPLY
  MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS MOVING INLAND OFF THE GULF WILL AID IN
  THE GENERATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE...A
  COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
  TUESDAY MORNING. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THE
  GENERATION OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

* THE EXPECTED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT COULD
  LEAD TO RAPID FLOODING OF STREAMS AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS. THIS
  IS ESPECIALLY SERIOUS OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE
  LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN AND THE GROUND IS ALREADY
  SATURATED. YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE IS CLOSELY
  MONITORING THIS SITUATION AS IT UNFOLDS.


A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS BE ISSUED. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL
MEDIA FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

$$
000 
WGUS64 KMOB 222149
FFAMOB

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
449 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

.CONTINUED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WARRANT THE CONTINUATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD BRING RAPID FLOODING CONDITIONS
TO STREAMS AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY SERIOUS OVER
THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN AND THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED.

ALZ051>056-059>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-230600-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-071023T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-ESCAMBIA-
COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...ATMORE...
BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...
BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...
FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA...
FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...
MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...
WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...
EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...
NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
449 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST 
  MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ALABAMA...
  CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...LOWER 
  BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER 
  MOBILE...WASHINGTON AND WILCOX. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...COASTAL 
  ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND 
  ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. IN SOUTHEAST 
  MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE AND WAYNE.

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND THIS EVENING WHILE A COLD
  FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
  SPREADING INTO THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
  THUNDERSTORMS. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THE
  GENERATION OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT COULD LEAD TO RAPID FLOODING
  OF STREAMS AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY SERIOUS
  OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN
  HAVE FALLEN AND THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED. YOUR NATIONAL
  WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE IS CLOSELY MONITORING THIS SITUATION AS
  IT UNFOLDS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS BE ISSUED. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL
MEDIA FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

$$
000 
WGUS64 KMOB 230556
FFAMOB

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1256 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

.PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT BEGINNING TO ENTER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT BRINGS AN END TO THE WIDESPREAD RAINS...THE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BRING RAPID FLOODING CONDITIONS TO STREAMS AND
POORLY DRAINED AREAS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY SERIOUS OVER THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN AND THE
GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED.

ALZ051>056-059>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-231200-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-071023T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-ESCAMBIA-
COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...ATMORE...
BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...
BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...
FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA...
FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...
MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...
WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...
EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...
NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
1256 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS
MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST 
  MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ALABAMA...
  CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...LOWER 
  BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER 
  MOBILE...WASHINGTON AND WILCOX. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...COASTAL 
  ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND 
  ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. IN SOUTHEAST 
  MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE AND WAYNE.

* UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A
  COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO ENTER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHICH
  WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

* UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD
  TO RAPID FLOODING OF STREAMS AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS. THIS IS
  ESPECIALLY SERIOUS OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE LARGE
  AMOUNTS OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN AND THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED.
  YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE IS CLOSELY MONITORING THIS
  SITUATION AS IT UNFOLDS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS BE ISSUED. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL
MEDIA FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

$$
000 
WGUS64 KMOB 230751
FFAMOB

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
251 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

.PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN. UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT BRINGS AN END TO THE WIDESPREAD RAINS...THE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BRING RAPID FLOODING CONDITIONS TO STREAMS AND
POORLY DRAINED AREAS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY SERIOUS OVER THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN AND THE
GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED.

ALZ051-MSZ067-230900-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-071023T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHOCTAW-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...WAYNESBORO
251 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN CANCELLED. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATED THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
WAYNE AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES WAS NOT SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING...THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THESE
TWO COUNTIES. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND HAS BROUGHT
AN END TO THE RAIN.

$$

ALZ052>056-059>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ075-076-078-079-231200-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-071023T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-PERRY-GREENE-
STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATOM...MILLRY...JACKSON...
THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...
MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...
ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...
TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...
SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA...
FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...
MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...
WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...
EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...
LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
251 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS
MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST 
  MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ALABAMA...
  CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...
  LOWER MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
  WASHINGTON AND WILCOX. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...COASTAL 
  ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND 
  ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. IN SOUTHEAST 
  MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY AND STONE.

* UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING

* PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL A COLD FRONT
  SWEEPS THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

* UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE PERIODS OF RAIN COULD LEAD TO
  RAPID FLOODING OF STREAMS AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS. THIS IS
  ESPECIALLY SERIOUS OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE LARGE
  AMOUNTS OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN AND THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED.
  YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE IS CLOSELY MONITORING THIS
  SITUATION AS IT UNFOLDS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS BE ISSUED. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL
MEDIA FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

$$
000 
WGUS64 KMOB 230852
FFAMOB

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
352 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CANCELLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...

.NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE RAINFALL
OVER THE REGION WAS NOT SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN DANGEROUS FLASH
FLOODING. SOME NUISANCE PONDING OF WATER OVER ROADWAYS AND SWOLLEN
STREAMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE WATERS FULLY DRAIN.

ALZ052>056-059>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ075-076-078-079-231000-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-071023T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-PERRY-GREENE-
STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATOM...MILLRY...JACKSON...
THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...
MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...
ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...
TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...
SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA...
FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...
MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...
WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...
EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...
LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
352 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA
AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SOME FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND STREAMS WAS REPORTED IN STONE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI BUT
OTHERWISE THE RAINFALL OVER THE REGION WAS NOT SUFFICIENT TO RESULT
IN DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING. SOME NUISANCE PONDING OF WATER OVER
ROADWAYS...POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND SWOLLEN STREAMS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL THE WATERS FULLY DRAIN.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Oct 21, 4:19 AM CDT, 11 hours 33 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 21, 4:19 AM CDT, 11 hours 33 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
419 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007

.SHORT TERM TODAY AND TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THIS
TIME 24 HOURS AGO...SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
ALLOW DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO
RETURN NORTHWARD IN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTS IN SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN
LATE AFTERNOON. HEAVIER RAINS SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AGAIN OVER THE COASTAL ZONES. HAVE BEEN
CONSIDERING A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BUT HAVE
DECIDED TO WAIT AND TAKE A LOOK AT THE 06Z MODEL RUNS. /11

.LONG TERM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF
DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...WILL MAINTAIN THE NORTHWARD FLOW
OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN INTO LOUISIANA...NORTHEASTWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT
ANTICIPATED. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE. NCEP FORECASTS ARE
TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
THE SLOWER CANADIAN GEM/ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK.

THE INCREASED SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT OPERATING ON THE DEEP LAYER GULF
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER TROF...COMBINED WITH
A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS
BECOMING MORE PROBABLE ALONG THE GULF COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
VEERING AND INCREASING WINDS WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SUGGESTS ENOUGH SHEAR SUPPORTING SOME SEVERE STORMS ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH MOIST ADIABATIC THERMAL
PROFILES KEEPING A CHECK ON INSTABILITY...COVERAGES OF SEVERE STORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN SLIGHT RISK CRITERIA AS OUTLOOKED BY
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. DUE TO THE
RECENT RECORD RAINFALL EVENT THAT OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...THERE IS CONCERN THAT ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL
QUICKLY LEAD TO ANOTHER FLOODING EPISODE. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FLOOD
WATCH A BIT LATER AS WE AWAIT RECEIPT OF NEW DATA. STAY TUNED.

FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...RAINS WILL MOVE OUT AND
COOLER WEATHER SETS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. NIGHTTIME LOWS
POSSIBLY MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. /10

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE BECOME EASTERLY AS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH...BRINGING RAIN
AND SHOWERS IN ADVANCE AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. WINDS GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT THEN GO WEST AND NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. OFFSHORE WINDS REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. /11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS DUE TO
INCREASED HUMIDITY VALUES. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      82  71  82  57 /  30  80  80  80
PENSACOLA   81  72  82  60 /  40  80  70  80
DESTIN      81  73  81  67 /  50  80  70  80
EVERGREEN   83  65  80  57 /  10  80  80  80
WAYNESBORO  83  65  80  54 /  10  80  90  90
CAMDEN      84  65  80  55 /  10  80  90  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 21, 12:04 PM CDT, 3 hours 48 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1204 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-221715-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1204 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE GULF WATERS FOR EAST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MOVING
ONSHORE TONIGHT. FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS IN THE MOISTENING AND
DESTABILIZING AIR ALONG THE WARM FRONT ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS.

AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO LIKELY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES
INLAND FROM THE GULF OVER THE DEEP LAYER OF MOIST AIR SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. RAIN MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS LATE THIS EVENING...BUT THE
HEAVIER RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. SOME STORMS LIKELY SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED THE RECENT FLOODING RAINS...THEN ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. PLEASE STAY INFORMED BY KEEPING UP WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN ON MONDAY
EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND NORTHWEST OVER THE BAYS
AND COASTAL WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE NEEDED FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 21, 1:36 PM CDT, 2 hours 16 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
136 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-220045-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...
ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...
TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...
SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA...
FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...
MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...
WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...
EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...
NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
136 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007

A STRONG WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GULF WILL BRING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES TO
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE IS
CLOSELY MONITORING THIS SITUATION AS IT UNFOLDS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS BEING EVALUATED AT THIS TIME. AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST
OF THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION THROUGH THE INTERNET AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MOB...NOAA WEATHER RADIO...AND LOCAL MEDIA FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in Alabama, 2007Flash Flood Watches in Mississippi, 2007Flash Flood Watches in Florida, 2007Every flash flood watch in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.